What logistics can teach us about FPL management

US General Omar Bradley was once quoted as saying, “Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics”. The idea behind the quote is that strategy, while undeniably important, is merely abstract thought without a plan to put it into practice. The ability to formulate and execute that plan is what really distinguishes the men from the boys.

We talk a lot about strategy in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) but comparatively little about logistics and, in all fairness, strategy is just an all-round more compelling subject. Whether or not to go ‘five at the back’ or target high-risk differentials is inherently interesting; how you implement that strategy is typically not.

But as we head into a series of Double Gameweeks, our strategy becomes somewhat dictated to us. There will, of course, still be differences but there is likely to be substantial homogeneity in terms of which teams we invest in and which players we back. Therefore, how we get to where we want to get to with our squads becomes more important than ever. A template might form, but how quickly and efficiently you can get to that template becomes a potentially significant source of an advantage.

Logistics

‘Logistics’ has been described as ‘the detailed organisation and implementation of a complex operation’ and scholars and practitioners in the field often discuss the discipline around certain pillars: Planning and Information, Inventory and Packaging, and Transport. This article will consider how these pillars might be applied to FPL.

Planning & Information

In logistics, planning is essentially a means of establishing order among ever-changing and often unpredictable circumstances. You cannot plan for everything, but without a plan, you will always be reacting and this will increase the likelihood of errors and inefficiency.

After taking a few months off, planning is officially back for FPL and more important than ever. By now, you’re probably all familiar with planning tools like the Season Ticker, Rate My Team and the Transfer Planner and all of these, and more, have a part to play in a comprehensive FPL plan.

We also all know that a week is a long time in FPL and planning can often feel redundant but the process of actually sitting down, looking at the fixtures, examining what your squad looks like now and how you would like it to evolve over five to six Gameweeks is an extremely beneficial practice.

When I do this, I tend to spot all sorts of inefficiencies either in my existing squad or with my intended transfer targets integrated into it. It’s easy to think that a certain player has good fixtures or prospects over the next six Gameweeks and therefore must be a good prospect, but it’s only when you plan out your squad over that period that you see how much, if any, added value they might actually provide. If they are going to end up on your bench or edge out a player with reasonably similar prospects, they probably aren’t an efficient use of your resources.

Naturally, good information is key, be it in terms of fixture difficulty, player availability or, particularly right now, Double Gameweek prospects. With FPL announcing Double Gameweeks like Newcastle United announced deadline-day signings, keeping on top of the current situation and having an idea of those that are likely to see several Double Gameweeks in the future (e.g. Leicester City and Everton) is important not only for short-term transfers but, also, longer-term chip strategies. Knowledge, as they say, is power.

READ MORE: What we know about the Blank and Double Gameweeks

Inventory and Packaging

In logistics, inventory and packaging focuses on meeting consumer demand in the most efficient way possible. Often, this comes down to how much available transportation or warehousing space can be utilised and for how long.

FPL is largely about how many points you can generate out of your available budget and maximising this demands that this budget is used efficiently. If, like me for example, you have been carrying West Ham’s Michail Antonio (£7.8m) since Gameweek-whatever, you could be forgiven for feeling like you’ve been transporting several tonnes of mouldy fish over this time. Whatever the reasons for Antonio’s survival in my squad, it has evidently not been an efficient use of the resources available to me. Carrying this sort of ‘dead weight’ is the kind of thing that planning is designed to avoid.

One factor that often leads to such inefficiency is FPL’s equivalent of packaging; ‘player prices’ or, rather, how we distribute player prices across our team. At various points in this current season, we’ve seen trends for ‘big at the back’, ‘big in the middle’ and ‘big up front’, and this very fact alone should illustrate that it is never a good idea to get too invested in one area.

In the same way that space and packaging can be conducive to maximising transport load, having a range of price options across your squad can help to maximise the use of your budget. For example; while your premium midfielder might have let you down recently, his presence means you can easily move to another premium midfielder who might deliver more. This might not be possible if you had 5 premium defenders or a lot invested up front in your forwards. Viewing player prices as interchangeable ‘slots’ that you can move players in and out of can help you better manage the ever-changing dynamics present in FPL.

Transport

Transport is about getting from A to B as quickly as possible while maintaining the condition of the cargo and minimising the cost, and what is another word for ‘transport’?

Transfers are how we get from A to B in FPL and are, arguably, the most important tool available to Fantasy managers. The objective is always to get the team you want in as few transfers as possible and, of course, by spending as few points as possible.

Everything discussed thus far should help facilitate optimal use of transfers but there are other things to consider, particularly with respect to timing and duration. In the same way that it is possible to move items too early, only for them to take up warehouse space or spoil, it is possible to make transfers too early. 

For example, if a player has a good run of fixtures in a few Gameweeks’ time, it might feel like good planning to get them in early, but it is often just a waste of your short-term resources. Furthermore, you can physically make transfers too early, as we have seen all too often this season, only for the player to be rendered unavailable nearer to the Gameweek’s start. There’s a reason that ‘just in time’ is such a desirable standard in logistics. 

But there is also the issue of being too short-termist when it comes to transfers. There are occasions when a ‘one-week-punt’ is justified but, as somebody who hates taking hits, I’m a big fan of approaching transfers in the way that Warren Buffet approaches picking stocks and considering whether, if I had to, I would be happy to hold this player for the long-term. 

I tend to avoid players where the answer would be ‘no’ and I find that this approach tends to reduce the transfers I use as, even if I don’t plan to hold the player for a long time, should circumstances mean that I have to, at least it’s not a total waste of my resources.

Summary

A few points can make all the difference in FPL and, thus, it pays to take guidance from disciplines where precision is vital. As in the field of logistics, planning and information, how we order or ‘package’ the players within our squads and how we get from A to B in terms of our transfer plans as quickly and with as little waste as possible, can be significant to succeeding in FPL, particularly at this point in the season where the demands for rigour and precision are greater than ever.