Spot the Differential

In-form FPL differential Sancho set for favourable fixture run

Double Gameweek 31 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Manchester United, Liverpool and Everton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

JADON SANCHO

Leeds’ defence, Sancho’s form, Barnes injury latest: FPL notes
  • FPL ownership: 2.8%
  • Price: £8.9m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: LEI | eve | NOR + liv | ars | BRE

Jadon Sancho (£8.9m) endured a slow start to his career at Manchester United following his summer move from Borussia Dortmund but has improved dramatically since the turn of the year.

In his last six matches, the winger has netted two goals and supplied three assists, blanking in just one of his five starts in that period. Notably, no midfielder has racked up more attacking returns, while he also leads the way amongst teammates for points, bonus points and points per start. His shot volume in that time isn’t significant (just nine have arrived in the box), but the quality of those attempts have been good, with three deemed ‘big chances’ by Opta.

Now, out of all cup competitions at home and abroad, United are one of three top-seven sides who are free to concentrate solely on league matches between now and the end of the season. They face struggling Everton and Norwich City soon, along with two clubs who have packed schedules over the coming two months, Leicester City and Liverpool.

Despite recent improvements, Gameweek 31 opponents Leicester have only managed one clean sheet on the road all season, while the advanced positioning of James Justin (£4.9m) and Timothy Castagne (£5.3m) last time out suggests Sancho could get some joy in behind.

As for United, at times they are still disjointed, but it’s worth noting that only Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have recorded more big chances across their last six matches.

Sancho – who is fully rested after being omitted from Gareth Southgate’s England squad for the recent friendlies with Switzerland and Ivory Coast – is recreating the type of form he showed in the Bundesliga of late, and could be an effective midfield differential to capitalise on this kind run of fixtures.

JOEL MATIP

  • FPL ownership: 4.3%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: WAT | mci | MUN | EVE | new

Joel Matip (£5.0m) has been a real surprise package in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) since the turn of the year, averaging an impressive 7.3 points per start.

In his last six outings, the defender has racked up eight returns (one goal, two assists and five clean sheets) and 50 FPL points, more than any other team-mate bar Andrew Robertson (£7.3m), with who he is level with.

In an attacking sense, his threat is limited compared to others, but his marauding runs forward have become a regular occurrence this season and become a trademark of his playing style. It’s also worth noting that among colleagues, only Mohamed Salah (£13.3m), Sadio Mane (£11.7m) and Diogo Jota (£8.3m) have attempted more shots in the box than Matip in 2021/22.

The former Cameroon international is clearly in the form of his life and, as a result, has now completed 90 minutes in eight of Liverpool’s last nine Premier League encounters, a period which has seen the Reds keep seven clean sheets. Ibrahima Konate (£5.1m) could, of course, impact his minutes going forward, but the feeling is that Matip is first-choice, and with the title still up for grabs, he is surely in pole position to start most matches.

After back-to-back shut-outs against Brighton and Hove Albion and Arsenal in Double Gameweek 29, Liverpool are currently at their defensive best as they continue to challenge for the Premier League title. They have kept 17 sheets in 29 Premier League matches this season, and boast the division’s third-best backline, with their 20 goals conceded only marginally more than Manchester City and Chelsea.

This weekend’s opponents – Watford – are also in poor attacking form, scoring just three goals in six road trips under new boss Roy Hodgson.

Loading up on Liverpool assets is a no-brainer, but if your budget won’t stretch to the premium defenders, FPL bosses could do a lot worse than look at Matip.

DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN

Five-time top 1k FPL finisher Tom Freeman on Calvert-Lewin, Wolves and his Gameweek 2 plans 6
  • FPL ownership: 3.4%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW31-35 fixtures: whu + bur | MUN | LEI | liv | CHE

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) has been struggling for form in recent weeks, but given that Everton are one of only two sides who ‘double’ in Gameweek 31, he might just be worth considering.

The 25-year-old showed glimpses of his quality in Gameweek 29, as he produced an excellent assist for Alex Iwobi’s (£5.8m) late winner against Newcastle United.

Now, the Blues’ number nine will be determined to show last season’s 21 goals in all competitions wasn’t just a flash in the pan, and will almost certainly have benefitted from some rigorous training sessions over the international break, something Frank Lampard touched on in Friday’s press conference.

“The break has been positive for Dominic (Calvert-Lewin). He was playing short of fitness. We’ve worked well with him over the last couple of weeks. Without putting undue pressure on him… he’s in a good place.” – Frank Lampard on Dominic Calvert-Lewin

However, there are wider issues that make this a risky punt: the Toffees have won fewer away points than any other side in the Premier League this season, while just one goal in their last six matches against Premier League opposition is also a concern.

On a more positive note, they do have two further fixtures still to be arranged, which should result in two further ‘doubles’ during the run-in.

Calvert-Lewin is quite simply the biggest scoring threat for Frank Lampard, and if they are to get back on track, there is a decent chance he will be central to it.

477 Comments Post a Comment
  1. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Start Trent or bench from the get go?

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      I'm starting over Coady.

    2. Fodderx4
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      I'm starting him with Broja 1st sub

    3. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Have to start. Extremely unlikely he comes off the bench.

  2. Wakanda
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Sanchez
    Rudiger Doherty Robertson
    Saka Foden Havertz Salah
    Wood Weghorst Kane

    Steele Tsimkas McArthur Mitchell

    -4 for this lineup. GTG ?

  3. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    I absolutely love the World Cup. Peak football.

    Not even Qatar or Jenas could ruin this for me.

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      USA!

      Great draw 🙂

  4. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Who to start?

    Maupey (Nor), Broja (Lee) or Doherty (New)?

  5. Hart-ake
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Start which one:

    a) Digne (wol)
    b) Tierney (cpl)

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      B

  6. Pep's Money Laundry
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Guys, any injury update on Dubravka?

  7. The Darkest Knight
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Wild card help please!!!

    A. Havertz + Weghorst + Martinelli

    vs.

    B. Mount + DCL + Gordon???

  8. tristanabc
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts much appreciated here.

    Don’t mind taking a -4 to get the team in better shape, 3.4ITB.
    Which would you pick?

    A) Saiss, Jimi -> R.James, DCL (-4)
    B) Saiss, Jimi -> Cancelo, Weg (-4)
    C) Saiss, Coady, Jimi -> R.James, Cancelo, DCL (-8)

    Ramsdale*
    Robbo Doherty Tierney Saiss Coady
    Salah Saka Raph Kulu
    Kane

    Dubravka* Jimi* Broja Ramsey

  9. Return of the FF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone backing Bakar's call for Weghorst? I do have Jiminez so it would be an easy decision, it just feels pointless though. Pretty much literally.

    1. tokara
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      For u, go for it

      1. Return of the FF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 1 month ago

        Because of Jiminez?

        1. Grande Tubarão
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 1 month ago

          Exactly

    2. RogDog_jimmy
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      I guess if folks have BB to play still then going to Weghorst at least gets you some fixtures.

      I'd go straight to a 4.5 myself (no BB) and use the cash where it's valuable.

      1. Return of the FF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 1 month ago

        This is certainly tempting

  10. Buck The Trent
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    DGW33 is still a couple weeks away but would you do Salah (MUN) to Bruno cap (NOR liv)?

    This will allow me to keep TAA and use FTs to get James/Cancelo and to change goalkeeper (Sa no game in GW33)

    1. tokara
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Pool did 5 agst United

  11. nico05
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Which combo on WCplease?
    Keane + Sancho
    R.James + Pogba

    1. mcsteely
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Reece James def, but not Pogba

      1. nico05
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 1 month ago

        Who else? was looking for a bit of utd cover

  12. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Captain Salah or Son?

    1. mcsteely
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Salah

      1. nico05
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 1 month ago

        Agreed

  13. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Are these transfers worth doing for -4?

    Jimenez / Coady >> Weghorst & James

  14. mcsteely
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Which move to do this week? Will do the other next week:

    A: Livramento to James
    B: Coutinho to Havertz
    C: Both for a -4

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      B or C for me

  15. pakornk
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Was looking at Cancelo and Laporte and decided to get Cancelo, but for some reason I f'd up and clicked on Laporte! God damn.

    1. Grande Tubarão
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      I accidentally bought the wrong Armstrong from Southampton earlier in the season and ended up having to keep him for 6 weeks. Happens mate but unlucky.

      1. pakornk
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks bro! Well at least I could use the remaining funds somewhere else I guess.

  16. RogDog_jimmy
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    After a whole bunch of back and forth I'm pretty set on my plan now I think.

    Going to do a -8
    Ait-Nouri + Ramsey + Watkins > James + Sancho + Greenwood

    Sa
    TAA, Robertson, James, Alonso
    Salah, Saka, Martinelli, Kulusevski, Sancho
    Kane

    Foster, Tierney, Broja, Greenwood.

    Will allow me to roll one in gw32 and avoid a FH in 33.

    Alonso will become Cancelo in gw34 - hoping he gets enough starts to be a good differential between now and then.

  17. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Would you bench Gordon, although he has 2 games this week for a defender such as James / Doherty?

    Need some opinion.....

    1. Grande Tubarão
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      No, though really unfortunate if there’s no-one else you can bench other than those 3

  18. tissae
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Watkins + Raphinha --> Weghorst + Havertz for free?

    1. Connor's Calling
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      like the looks of those trades.

  19. Pukkipartyy
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Start one?

    A) Doherty
    B) Barnes
    C) Broja

  20. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Bench one please.

    A)Kulu
    B)Doherty
    C)Broja

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      B

      1. wulfrunian
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 1 month ago

        cheers

  21. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Pick one to bench please:
    1. Gordon (whu, bur)
    2. Trent (WAT)
    3. Saka (cry)
    4. Raph (SOU)
    5. Weghorst (MCI, EVE)

  22. abaalan
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    A) Jimenez + Saiss -> Weghorst + James
    B) Jimenez + Saiss + Digne -> Gelhardt + James + Cancelo -4

  23. FredrikH
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Dennis and Broja rotate nicely until the end of the season if you're looking for budget forwards especially for the next three GWs.

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers for that!

    2. Josh.E
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Should I avoid weghorst and go pukki instead, I have broja and bb? Don’t like burnley players

      1. FredrikH
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 1 month ago

        Would go Weg if no other pressing issues in the squad and if he can come in without a hit i.e Jimi downgrade.

  24. EL_FENOMENO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Jimmy + Son to Broja + Salah -4:
    a) Yes
    b) No

  25. FredrikH
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    TAA -> James or VVD -> James? ONLY GW31+32 in mind. One has got to go.

    1. Connor's Calling
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Depends whether the value you lose on TAA is important when you WC (?) in GW33? Prob c0.5m?

      1. FredrikH
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 1 month ago

        Yes it's around that number for TAA in lost value if I bring him back in 34. VVD then? Could risk TAA + James getting rested though. VVD wont be.

        1. Connor's Calling
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 1 month ago

          hence the question around value being important or not. If value not important then sensible to lose TAA. Also depends who'd come in if they didnt play

          1. FredrikH
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 1 month ago

            .5 could be nice on the WC. Maybe the likes of Havertz over Mount. Starting to think VVD goes. Bench is Broja Cash Dennis. So Broja would come in if one doesnt show.

  26. Connor's Calling
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    simplify a bit. Planning to FH 33, WC 35, BB 36. With that in mind:

    A) Ramsey -> Gordon (free). Play Broja

    B) Ramsey & Watkins -> Gordon and DCL (-4)

  27. Tommo1212
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Who would you play this game week ?

    A - Schmeichel
    B- Sa
    —————————
    1 . Calvert Lewin ( DGW)
    2 . Adams

    1. Connor's Calling
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      B1

  28. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    Which one looks like the group of death so far?

    1. puma
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Group C is not looking good thus far in my opinion.

    2. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      Group C or Group H.

    3. Connor's Calling
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      E!

  29. Golden Toe
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    DDG
    TAA RUDIGER VVD
    RAPHINA SAKA KULU SALAH RAMSEY
    KANE DENNIS

    Ramsdale, Coady, Broja, Johnson

    0.1 in bank / 1 FT

    I am trying to make some DGW cover and Man City cover too but not sure I want to lose TAA…

    A) TAA > Cancelo
    B) TAA + Dennis > Cancelo + Weghorst

    What do you guys think?

  30. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 1 month ago

    England with an easy WC group.

    As they say, it is better to be lucky than good. And with the way the draw has panned out for Southgate as manager of the England team in these tournaments, he may just be lucky.

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 1 month ago

      England already through to knock out round.