FPL points predictions for 2022/23

Our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points projections for 2022/23 are live for Premium Members of Fantasy Football Scout.

The keen-eyed amongst you may have spotted the predicted points appearing over the last week or so but we have had an additional refresh at the weekend, with the likes of Neco Williams (£4.0m) and Raheem Sterling (£10.0m) added to their new clubs.

Subscribers can get the full picture here.

You can even get a breakdown of the points, from attacking returns to clean sheets, in our projections tables.

Our Rate My Team tool, meanwhile, can give you an approximation of how many FPL points your own team will score over a series of Gameweeks.

Our thanks to the brains behind the scenes, TopMarx and Chris Atkinson, for their work on this.

FPL GAMEWEEKS 1-8 POINTS PROJECTIONS: GOALKEEPERS

Fresh from an unexpected price drop, Liverpool’s Alisson (£5.5m) leads the way for goalkeepers over the first eight Gameweeks.

Aaron Ramsdale (£5.0m), whose Arsenal side are top of our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty over the period studied, sits second but is at the summit for ‘value’ (aka points per million).

Illan Meslier (£4.5m) is just about the pick of the budget goalkeepers thanks to Leeds’ fine start, although expect to see David Raya (£4.5m) – not pictured above – climb the table the closer we get to Gameweek 1. The arrival of Thomas Strakosha (£4.5m) has sparked debate over Raya’s future at Brentford, with that uncertainty reflected in his ‘expected minutes’ (xM) in our calculations. Should confimation come that Raya will still be between the posts on the opening weekend, his xM and projected points will rise accordingly.

FPL GAMEWEEKS 1-8 POINTS PROJECTIONS: DEFENDERS

There’s the predictable ‘big six’ dominance in the upper echelons of the defenders’ points table, with Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) top of the pile.

Reece James comes out first for value despite a £6.0m price tag, while Takehiro Tomiyasu is the pick of the £4.5m defenders – providing he shakes off a pre-season injury to feature in Gameweek 1.

Expected minutes are the enemy of Ivan Perisic (£5.5m), meanwhile; perhaps the game-time issue won’t be as big a problem as some of us are fearing but his projected points have taken a bit of a hit because of those initial concerns.

FPL GAMEWEEKS 1-8 POINTS PROJECTIONS: MIDFIELDERS

ABOUT RATE MY TEAM (RMT) AND POINTS PROJECTIONS

WHAT IS RATE MY TEAM?

Rate my Team (RMT) is a tool designed to give you an approximation of how many FPL points your team will score over a series of Gameweeks. This takes into account captaincy, vice-captains and automatic substitution points.

WHAT ARE PROJECTIONS?

Projections come in two forms – Season Projections and Six-Gameweek Projections (SGP).

Season projections show algorithm-generated predictions for every FPL player. This includes goals, assists, clean sheets, minutes played, bonus points, yellow cards and, most importantly, FPL points.

SGP shows algorithm-generated predictions for every player’s FPL points in each of the next six Gameweeks, calculating their points per million value over this period. These numbers are the same numbers as the ones used in RMT.

HOW ARE THE VALUES FOR RATE MY TEAM AND PROJECTIONS CALCULATED?

The values are generated by an algorithm that uses both current and historical data. There is also constant human monitoring so that the model can respond quickly to news, injuries or tactical changes that otherwise the algorithm may underestimate.

We do this to generate the best values with as little bias as possible.

HOW DO I LOAD MY TEAM INTO RMT?

To load your team into RMT (after Gameweek 1 only), you need to type in your FPL ID. If you can’t find your FPL ID, instructions on how to find it are on the Rate My Team page.

Before Gameweek 1, head to the Build My Team page and enter your team manually via ‘Add Player’.

WHAT DO XM AND ADJP MEAN?

Placing the cursor over a player’s predicted FPL points in a Gameweek will show an xM score and an adjP score.

xM stands for expected minutes – It’s the number of minutes the algorithm is predicting a player to have. Note that this isn’t an exact Gameweek specific prediction but rather an average number of minutes. Therefore, while a player might be expected to play 90 minutes, their xM will be lower since there’s a chance they might miss the game or get substituted.

adjP stands for adjusted points – It’s the projected points score if you know a player will take part in the match (i.e. his xM is not 0). It should be used for deciding who to captain and who to bench.

Both of these values combine to generate a final score.

WHY DOES RMT SAY TO START A PLAYER WITH A LOWER PREDICTED SCORE THAN A SECOND PLAYER?

Usually, this occurs because the algorithm predicts that a player (usually a goalkeeper) will either play the full game or won’t feature at all.

Player A – High adjP, very low xM – Low RMT score

Player B – Medium adjP, very high xM – Medium RMT score

Whilst Player A is unlikely to play, the most common scenarios is that they’ll either be given 90 minutes or none at all. Therefore, RMT thinks it’s worth starting him to make use of the high adjP if he plays, otherwise the safer option of Player B will autosub in.

Therefore it suggests picking Player A over B, despite the former appearing to score lower on RMT. 

WHEN DO UPDATES HAPPEN?

While there’s no fixed update timetable, it is pretty much continuous.

Monday tends to have a big update after the weekend’s events. Thursday and Friday will have updates in the evenings following any news that emerges from pre-match press conferences.

CAN I SEE A FULL LIST FOR ALL PLAYERS IN RMT?

You can find the complete list here. It can also be found by clicking the “Players” option in the sub-menu under “Rate My Team” on the main Premium Members Area menu.

CAN I ORDER BY SCORES FOR ONE GAMEWEEK?

From the list of all players in RMT or projections, just click on the Gameweek header to sort the players by that Gameweek’s predicted score.

HOW DO I CHANGE THE GAMEWEEKS I VIEW RMT OVER?

At the top of the Rate My Team page, whilst you have your team loaded, you can select “First Gameweek” and “Last Gameweek”. By default, the first Gameweek will be the next Gameweek and the last Gameweek will be in six Gameweeks’ time, but these can be manually altered to suit your research.