To the excitement of many Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, Erling Haaland (£12.0m) was pictured in Manchester City’s Wednesday training session.
A groin injury ruled him out of Gameweek 29 and over 1.4 million managers have sold Haaland since his last appearance – a match where he scored his 28th goal from 26 outings.
Perhaps he comes straight back into FPL squads between now and the Saturday deadline. However, it’s complicated by the good form of replacement forwards and Man City’s two imminent Champions League quarter-finals against Bayern Munich.
So let’s assess his expected Gameweek 30 minutes and see whether it’s wise to immediately jump onto the Norwegian superstar.
IN HIS ABSENCE
Quite simply, Haaland has been a phenomenon since arriving from Borussia Dortmund last summer, netting a freakish number of league goals alongside 1.67 goals per game in the Champions League.
He followed the Gameweek 27 strike at Crystal Palace with five versus RB Leipzig and three against Burnley in the FA Cup. Hat tricks from every direction for the 22-year-old.
Yet Man City didn’t need him when thrashing Liverpool 4-1, with a total of 17 shots and an expected goals (xG) tally of 2.96.
Julian Alvarez (£6.0m) stepped in to register a goal and assist, something he’s more than capable of repeating at last-placed Southampton on Saturday. After all, Pep Guardiola’s side won the previous two league titles without Haaland.
WHAT HISTORY TELLS US
His only other injury took place last autumn, where a bruised foot forced him to miss Gameweek 14’s win at Leicester City. Deemed fit enough for Gameweek 15 against Fulham, Haaland began on the bench before coming on in the 64th minute. Naturally, he scored.
A similar return to proceedings could take place this time, where he ideally rests but is there as an emergency cord in case Southampton go off-script.
It takes place three days before the first meeting with Bayern and this could be interpreted in two ways. Either Guardiola keeps him fresh for the big game, or he realises that some match fitness quickly needs building.
| Champions League appearance | The game before | The game after |
|---|---|---|
| GROUP MD1: v Sevilla (70 mins) | 90 mins v Aston Villa (3 days before) | Postponed due to Her Majesty’s death |
| GROUP MD2: v Dortmund (90 mins) | Postponed due to Her Majesty’s death | 90 mins v Wolves (3 days after) |
| GROUP MD3: v Copenhagen (45 mins) | 90 mins v Man United (3 days before) | 90 mins v Southampton (3 days after) |
| GROUP MD5: v Dortmund (45 mins) | 80 mins v Brighton (3 days before) | Injured for GW14 |
| ROUND OF 16: v RB Leipzig (90 mins) | 90 mins v Nott’m Forest (4 days before) | 72 mins v Bournemouth (3 days after) |
| ROUND OF 16: v RB Leipzig (63 mins) | 90 mins v Crystal Palace (3 days before) | 63 mins v Burnley (4 days later) |
Three of Haaland’s Champions League appearances have been sandwiched by a game before and after. Encouragingly, he wasn’t rested for any of them and was even given most minutes of the trips to newly-promoted Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth.
With Arsenal to chase down, Guardiola cannot afford to take any game for granted.
WHO SHOULD BE SOLD?
Popular forwards Harry Kane (£11.7m), Ollie Watkins (£7.5m), Ivan Toney (£7.9m) and Alexander Isak (£6.7m) have all been in fine form over recent gameweeks.
If Toney escapes tonight’s trip to Manchester United without his tenth booking of the season, upcoming matches against Newcastle United, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Aston Villa look tricky. Then again, he has three goals from five matches.
Kane is FPL’s highest scorer after Haaland, sitting on 189 points. He’s certainly not done anything wrong, with four goals in three games taking him up to 22 for the season.
Isak is starring for Newcastle, whilst Watkins is on a brilliant streak of eight goals from ten matches. Since Gameweek 21, no player has more big chances (12), shots on target (18) or expected goals (6.14).
Unless Guardiola gives a clear answer in Friday’s press conference, the temptation could be to wait a bit longer. Especially for those FPL managers not intending to use a Free Hit chip that covers Man City’s Blank Gameweek 32.
COMMENTS SECTION
When looking through our comments, HM2 asked an interesting question in relation to this.
Here are some of the replies, as a sample of what the FPL community are thinking:
“Yeah but Pep also loves his players to have a certain amount of match fitness as well.” – JBG
“My previous experiences this season of expecting Haaland to be rested ahead of UCL have seriously backfired. And I think Pep’s all-important rhythm will win out here if he’s capable of 50 mins or so. Don’t care if he loses one appearance point” – The Mentaculus
“Not played in over two-to-three weeks. Highly unlikely Pep will play Haaland in the Bayern game without any mins under his belt. He’ll start and get 60 mins, or make a 30 mins sub app this weekend.” – TonyAwesome69
“Get him but don’t captain him.” – Cojones of Destiny
The general consensus seems to be that Haaland will be given minutes at Southampton but not all 90. We know he can haul in very little time but is ‘some minutes’ enough to justify making a transfer right now?
Safe to say, the community will be watching Guardiola’s press conference with much interest.
1 year, 26 days agoI knew I'd lose ground this week having already played the BB in GW27, only annoying thing is Toney sat on my bench with Saka in the starting 11... he's gonna punish me even more tonight!