The ‘Sleeper’ series returns to Fantasy Football Scout this summer.
In these articles, we assess the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) players who failed to live up to expectations last season, be it through injury, loss of form or otherwise.
Here, we take a look at Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m), asking if he can push his way back into our thoughts as an FPL asset.
All the stats for this piece are taken from our Premium Members Area. You can sign up here for the new campaign – once you’re aboard, you’ve locked in the price of your Premium Membership for good, so long as you don’t cancel!
2022/23: FPL RECORD AND STATS
- Starts: 15
- Substitute appearances: 2
- Goals: 2
- Assists: 1
- FPL points: 40 (2.5 per start)
In an injury-affected campaign, Calvert-Lewin was limited to just 15 starts and two substitute appearances, in which he scored two goals.
However, when he did make it onto the pitch, he performed pretty well, especially under Sean Dyche.
Given that he’d spent so long on the sidelines, you’d expect a bit of rustiness, but in seven starts from Gameweek 22 onwards (Dyche’s first match in charge), Calvert-Lewin scored, assisted and averaged a shot in the box every 30.7 minutes.
His non-penalty expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes in this period was 0.70, a figure beaten by only two other FPL forwards: Callum Wilson (£8.0m, 1.07) and Erling Haaland (£14.0m, 0.86).
We’re looking at a small sample size, but Calvert-Lewin’s new manager helped boost his goal threat, which is captured below.
| Minutes per | Gameweeks 1-21 (under Lampard) | Gameweeks 22-38 (under Dyche) |
| Shot | 55.5 | 25.8 |
| Shot in the box | 60.5 | 30.7 |
| Shot on target | 222 | 70.1 |
| Expected goal (xG) | 328.1 | 129.1 |
Injuries to Calvert-Lewin clearly had a significant effect on Everton’s attacking threat, too.
Only Wolverhampton Wanderers (31) scored fewer Premier League goals than Everton (34) in 2022/23, with even bottom club Southampton managing more (36). Furthermore, five of their goals came in one game – a stunning 5-1 win over Brighton and Hove Albion in Gameweek 35.
“Unplayable” was how former Scotland striker and pundit Ally McCoist described Calvert-Lewin’s performance that day.
CALVERT-LEWIN UNDER DYCHE
| Gameweek | Opponent | Mins | Penalty box touches | Shots | Shots in the box | Shots on target | Expected goals (xG) |
| 22 | Arsenal (h) | 60 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0.91 |
| 32 | Crystal Palace (a) | 86 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 |
| 33 | Newcastle (h) | 81 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 |
| 34 | Leicester (a) | 90 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1.79 |
| 35 | Brighton (a) | 86 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 |
| 36 | Man City (h) | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 37 | Wolves (a) | 43 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.43 |
FPL PREVIOUS
| Season | Starts | Mins | Goals | Assists | Bonus points | FPL points |
| 2021/22 | 15 | 1,281 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 64 |
| 2020/21 | 32 | 2,871 | 16 | 6 | 21 | 165 |
| 2019/20 | 30 | 2,621 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 126 |
| 2018/19 | 19 | 1,769 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 92 |
| 2017/18 | 18 | 1,871 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 88 |
| 2016/17 | 5 | 347 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 |
For a better indication of Calvert-Lewin’s FPL potential when fit and regularly playing matches, we should probably look at the 2020/21 and 2019/20 seasons, when he was largely injury-free and made a combined 62 Premier League starts, scoring 29 goals.
In 2019/20, he was a staple of many FPL squads following Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment as Everton manager in December, scoring nine goals and setting up another in the 10 Gameweeks following the Italian’s arrival.
The following year was better still. With James Rodriguez pulling the strings and Lucas Digne (£4.5m) firing in the crosses, there was no one in the league deadlier from six yards out, at least for the first third of the season. Niggling injuries got in the way after, but he still finished on 165 points, the fifth-best among FPL forwards.
2023/24: THE FPL PROSPECTS
After another injury-hit campaign, Calvert-Lewin has dropped £2.0m and will now cost FPL managers just £6.0m, making him one of the cheaper starting forwards on offer.
With a full pre-season behind him, he could hit the ground running in 2023/24, especially given the opening schedule.
Everton have winnable early games and sit third on the Season Ticker over the first eight Gameweeks. Their run of home matches looks particularly favourable, bar Arsenal in Gameweek 5.
Under Dyche, Everton’s goal threat improved, with the Toffees pressing higher up the pitch and going more direct. When it came to creating opportunities, the Merseyside club were up to 10th for xG, with 25.16 across his 18 matches.
It’s also worth noting they were a huge threat from set-pieces after the former Burnley manager took over. They recorded 80 shots from such situations from Gameweek 22 onwards, the third-most in the league, which is encouraging for Calvert-Lewin, who is one of the best headers of the ball in the division and thrives on the kind of whipped crosses Dwight McNeil (£5.5m) puts into the box.
One thing to be wary of, in addition to fitness, of course, is that Dyche’s Burnley sides didn’t score lots of goals. For example, in the 2017/18 season when they finished seventh, they only scored 36 times, so don’t expect the floodgates to open too often, if at all.
Still, Calvert-Lewin is a much more attractive option under Dyche. It’s understandable his injury record will make him a no-go for some Fantasy managers, but if he’s not in the physio room, the Everton forward could be an absolute steal at just £6.0m.
VIDEO LATEST
9 months, 26 days agoI've done a detailed analysis and concluded that you do better if your midfield is kitted out in a red home kit.
Quite possibly the defence too.
So I've been steadily turning my team less blue.
If you're not sure, Crystal Palace offer you a half and half option.