Who should FPL managers sell to buy Salah?

Recent hamstring and muscle injuries have ensured that Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) hasn’t started a league match since New Year’s Day. However, he has begun Liverpool’s latest two in other competitions and is currently the most-bought player of this Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek.

He netted against Manchester United in last weekend’s FA Cup defeat, shortly after a goal and three assists versus Sparta Prague.

Therefore, we wonder if the Egyptian will soon return to ‘essential’ status in FPL circles, knowing that he’s been given permission to miss this international period and fully recover.

WHY SALAH COULD BE ESSENTIAL

INCREASING OWNERSHIP

At the time of writing, Salah has already gained over 300,000 new managers, rising once in price. With a fortnight between FPL deadlines, this number could reach 500,000 ahead of the meeting with Brighton and Hove Albion.

By the time last-placed Sheffield United visit Anfield in Gameweek 31, his effective ownership (EO) may escalate to a point where safer managers are unable to ignore both that and his now-confirmed Double Gameweek 34. Even if it involves activating an earlier-than-planned Wildcard.

CONSISTENTLY ELITE

At this stage, going without Salah would be very brave. FPL’s top scorer from 2021/22, 2018/19 and 2017/18 has bagged at least 231 points in each of the last six seasons, making him arguably the game’s greatest-ever asset.

Furthermore, this campaign has already brought 15 goals, nine assists and 168 points. Nobody has created more big chances (19) throughout the league, where only Erling Haaland (£14.3m) beats his 21.10 expected goal involvement (xGI) tally.

Even during Salah’s Gameweek 25 comeback cameo at Brentford, he scored and assisted in 45 minutes. It’s just unfortunate that a minor issue kept him out of the following two matches.

But put him back into the league’s most attacking team for attempts (542) and shots inside the box (344), managers suddenly have another superb captaincy option. He’s certainly been missed.

FIXTURES

So, Salah has 10 games to grab 43 points and reach the 231 total again.

With Double Gameweek 34 locked in, it’s simply a question of how long managers can wait for him.

Those who resist the Brighton outing will struggle to turn down Sheffield United. Then it’s his favourite opponent Man United, where last Sunday’s cup goal took him to an unbelievable 12 strikes and four assists from their last eight encounters.

Yet the main problem is Salah’s price tag. With a plethora of strong midfield options in FPL’s landscape, it’s very possible to end this season strongly without him. Good luck to those taking this route. But let’s at least try to identify the best player who can make way for him.

WHO NEEDS TO BE SOLD?

KEVIN DE BRUYNE (£10.5m)

This is a fairly straightforward swap if you still own the Manchester City playmaker. 2.4 million sales have taken place over the last five Gameweeks, with rotation very much an issue now that the Belgian’s minutes get managed.

SON HEUNG-MIN (£10.1m)

It’s not quite as simple for Son, knowing he has Luton Town at home on Saturday, a Gameweek 34 blank but also two late doubles. The South Korean failed at Fulham but, unfortunately, so did pretty much every other Blank Gameweek 29 player of note.

His 11 league outings beforehand brought in six goals and seven assists, returning to the form that saw him share the Premier League Golden Boot with Salah two seasons ago.

Immediate post-Luton fixtures toughen slightly, which opens up Gameweek 31 as a potential time to move from Son to Salah – especially for those on a Gameweek 35 Wildcard, who can then move back to Son. Then again, trips to West Ham United and Newcastle United look absolutely fine. A home game with Nottingham Forest sits in between.

But another thing to consider is that Richarlison (£6.9m) is back, possibly pushing Son back to the left side. The 31-year-old has the worst minutes per chance rate of all non-De Bruyne names featured here.

BUKAYO SAKA (£9.1m)

Meanwhile, Saka is the sole midfielder with more points than Salah and one of only three players with 10+ goals and assists.

He’s the key player and a penalty taker for a rampant Arsenal side that has won eight successive league games. This run includes two 5-0 thumpings and a pair of 6-0 thrashings, so it’d be unwise to ditch right now.

You see, he had a spell of five blanks from the half-dozen appearances between Gameweeks 16 and 21. Doubts about Saka’s essentialness crept in, to which he replied with seven goals and 59 points from the next five.

The England international ranks first overall for expected assists (xA, 9.19) and penalty area touches (218), alongside being fourth-best for chances created (68). He has Double Gameweek 34 as well. It’d simply be too risky to Saka-rifice him for Salah.

PHIL FODEN (£8.1m)

Alternatively, when it comes to shots, Foden is the leading midfielder for efforts (85) and attempts on target (35). Not only is he a tougher upgrade – being the cheapest of these candidates – but the Man City maestro is already on his best-ever FPL points (160) tally.

He’s successfully avoided ‘Pep Roulette’ so far but it should be noted that the attractive Gameweek 33 hosting of Luton is surrounded by two Champions League clashes with Real Madrid. The previous week might bring pre-deadline advice on whether he’ll be rested for their lunchtime trip to Crystal Palace.

Both form part of a strong fixture run in this competitive title race, where Spurs (a) will later be added. An explosive asset like Foden offers so much here, with his last seven matches bringing a hat-trick plus three more goals. But four of them ended in blanks and his seasonal total of 11 big chances is below the likes of Tomas Soucek (£4.9m), Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.5m) and Anthony Elanga (£5.1m).

ERLING HAALAND (£14.3m)

What if – and this would be a huge call – you decided to keep these names, buy Salah and proceed with a top-heavy midfield that forfeits premium forward Haaland?

He’s played more minutes than the Egyptian and is on fewer points, only once exceeding eight in his 10 starts since Gameweek 12. So managers may think this late stage is the right time to make differential punts. Perhaps Darwin Nunez (£7.5m), Alexander Isak (£7.5m), Ivan Toney (£8.2m) or Rodrigo Muniz (£4.6m).

Of course, it requires selling this season’s leading goalscorer (18). The pace-setter for attempts (91), big chances (40), shots on target (42) and expected goals (xG, 20.95). An individual who netted 36 times in his debut Premier League campaign.

Unless Haaland’s minutes start being managed in a similar way to De Bruyne, there’s no major reason to get rid.

OLLIE WATKINS (£9.0m)

Finally, an idea that was explored in one of our Tuesday articles. It’s possible to own Salah, Son, Saka, Foden and Haaland, as long as Watkins gets downgraded.

Those needing to take risks for mini-league or ranking success may notice that the Aston Villa forward’s extremely high ownership doesn’t quite match his recent form. Very little is gained when he succeeds and eight of his last 15 have ended as a blank.

On the other hand, during this period, FPL’s top overall scorer for points (187) and goal involvements (31) grabbed multiple returns on five occasions.

Nevertheless, he’s not on penalties and Villa don’t have any Double Gameweek duties on the horizon. Selling him for Gameweek 31’s trip to Man City could make sense, with an Arsenal visit in Gameweek 33 – he blanked in both reverse fixtures. In fact, seven of his remaining nine opponents are amongst the top ten for restricting minutes per expected goals conceded (xGC).

Whether it involves a midfield switch or downgrading a forward, purchasing Salah will require a tough decision.