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What The Bookies Say – Gameweek 9 Captaincy

21 October 2016 24 comments
J0E J0E
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Last week, YMA took a look at how a combination of bookies odds, fixture difficulty and form could potentially be used as a tool in helping choose a captain for the Fantasy Premier League.

With the formula used it correctly predicted Costa as the most likely to score points across Gameweek 8. Let’s see what Gameweek 9 has on offer.

Refining the Odds

Let’s take six popular captaincy options for the upcoming Gameweek and rank them from 1-6 according to their likelihood to score (according to the bookies), we will take these same players and rank them from 1-6 according to fixture, this will be worked out using goals conceded and big chances conceded from the last four games.

We will then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games.

Bookies Odds

Rank         Player         Odds

1.             Aguero           5/6

2.             Sanchez        10/11

3.             Lukaku        Evens

4.             Walcott        11/10

5.             Costa          13/10

6.              Son             8/5

Fixtures

Rank          Player      Fixture       Goals Conceded      Big Chances Conceded

1.                Lukaku       (bur)                    7                                10

2.                 Son           (bou)                   7                                 7

3.5              Sanchez     (MID)                  7                                 2

3.5              Walcott       (MID)                  7                                 2

5.                Costa        (MUN)                 2                                 4

6.                Aguero      (SOT)                  1                                  1

Form

Rank            Player         PPG          Goals       Assists

1.                Walcott          10                4              2

2.                Sanchez         8                 3              2

3.                Lukaku          7.5               3              1

4.                 Costa            7                 3              1

5.                 Son              6.25             2              1

6.                Aguero           4                 2              0

Results

Rank       Player      Odds      Fixture       Form      Total

1.            Lukaku        3               1                 3            7.0

2.            Sanchez      2              3.5               2           7.5

3.            Walcott        4              3.5               1            8

4.             Son            6                2                 5            13

5.           Aguero        1                6                 6            13

6.           Costa          5                5                4             14

 

Taking odds, fixture and form into account,  Romelu Lukaku is the most likely to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek with Alexis Sanchez a close second.

Sanchez and Theo Walcott have been given a 3.5 on the fixture rating as they both face the same opposition.

Aguero’s fixture certainly needs mentioning, Southampton have only conceded one goal in the last four games and an astonishingly low one big chance conceded over this same period. That should be particularly alarming for would be Aguero captainers.

Good luck for Gameweek 9

J0E Podcaster and writer. Tweets stats and stuff via @FFScout_Joe Follow them on Twitter

24 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. SAY SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    I've gone Sanchez. This is reassuring. Or worrying. One of those.

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  2. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    thanks again. Hope its a hattrick of successes - as Sanchez will be my likely captain.

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  3. Krul Runnings
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Excellent article as always.

    Just FYI (assuming you didnt know) the formatting of the article isn't perfect when being viewed on mobile. Not sure how easy that is to correct but just wanted to let you know.

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    1. Defcons are for Kinnear
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Was going to post this about the format

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    2. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Yep, may be better if submitted as tables perhaps rather than text?

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    3. QPR expects... glory!
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      It is if you have auto rotate and look at it landscape 🙂

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    4. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Yeah unfortunately I cannot get on the site at work and have had to use hotmail alot. Tables will be better a function if this article continues, thanks 🙂

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  4. as33
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    walcott or kun on captain this week?

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Walcott

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  5. Ruth_NZ
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Just some small observations.

    Firstly, 5/6 is a shorter price than 10/11. Aguero is ranked above Sanchez by the bookmakers, not below.

    Second, even if we take the bookies' odds as indicative of probability (which they only partly are), the odds for the first 4 on your list converted to % chance of scoring are:

    Aguero 54%, Sanchez 52%, Lukaku 50%, Walcott 48%.

    These are very small probability differences which are exaggerated a great deal by awarding Walcott 4 points and Sanchez (mistakenly) 1.

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    1. Sadio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      I'm considering dropping Sanchez for KDB, just have a feeling it's the right move.

      Could backfire tremendously though, which is why I haven't pulled the trigger.

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      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 1 month ago

        If the current situation at City continues then KDB over Aguero looks a better bet. I'd be nervous ditching Sanchez with Middlesbrough visiting.

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        1. Sadio
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 1 month ago

          Yes that's why I likely won't have the gumption to make the move.

          Middlesborough have been stingy to strikers though, not expecting a haul from Sanchez.

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    2. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      Observations have been noted and changed in the article, thankyou for noticing them.

      The idea of this article is to offer a more simple version of the captaincy theory, if you don't like the odds section of it (which I understand why) then take that part out and use the other factors if you wish or simply ignore this article altogether.

      Every article has it's flaws and has many variables, none are perfect in anyway shape or form.

      Good luck for GW9

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  6. skodaole2
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Between Payet and Sigurdsson atm cant see past them

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  7. Your Mum's Athletic
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Thanks Jonty alot and also Adam West, he knows why! much appreciated gents

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    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      No worries and thanks for keeping the articles coming 🙂

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  8. Debauchy
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Cheers YMA. 1 of the top 4 , Make your choice, Wally is mine

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    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      thanks debauchy much appreciated

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  9. TheDazzler
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    I posted at the end of this article for GW8 captaincy so it may have been missed (or maybe just ignored 🙂 )

    I'll post it again.

    "As has already been pointed out, the bookies odds already account for form and fixtures.
    The ranking system you are using is clumsy as it doesn't necessarily account accurately for what may be wide differences in individual categories.
    Let's take a hypothetical.
    Imagine Aguero is at home to Hull but that he hasn't scored in 6 games. He'll score 1 for bookies odds, 1 for fixture but 6 for form.
    Imagine Costa is playing away at Southampton and has scored 6 in his last 6 games. Other contenders are away at Pool, away at Man Utd, away at Arsenal, away at Spurs. Costa scores 2 for bookies odds, 2 for for fixture and 1 for form.
    Costa will beat Aguero in this scenario, when it's clear he shouldn't. In this scenario bookies odds should be weighted much higher which your system doesn't allow.

    You are not accounting for the extra point mids get for scoring, or the extra point they get for keeping a clean sheet. There is no value attached to liklihood of obtaining BPS, which we know varies between players, so that needs to be factored in too. Also bookings/sendings off and expected playing time. Assists are more likely for some players than others, which also needs to be considered.

    The FFS points projections take into account all these things, including bookies odds, as far as I know. So basically your 'Captaincy - what the bookies say' is already being performed by this site at a much more sophisticated level.
    However I don't think their weightings are open to view so it's difficult to say if similar errors to the above process exist."

    I appreciate you are trying to put up a simple version but if people actually use it, I think it presents the possibility of leading people into error.
    I'm not saying the FFS points projections are definitely better but they are certainly more nuanced and remove the obvious potential weighting error in this system for one thing.
    Another problem with this system is that it doesn't actually do what you want it to do. The bookies odds to score Premier League goals is not the same as measuring which FPL player will score the most FPL points. If someone is an absolute assist machine (like Ozil last year, Fabregas the year before) they will not fare as well in this system.
    I know Costa 'won' last week but perhaps he did under the FFS points projection too? I can't see those projections now.
    The points projections for this week have 1. Sanchez, 2. Ozil, 3. Walcott, 4. Aguero, 5. Lukaku, 5. Mahrez (both tied)
    I think Sanchez is clearly better than Lukaku this week, no matter what the final result.

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    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      But it says in the opening paragraph ''could potentially be used as a tool in helping choose a captain for the Fantasy Premier League''. No one is suggesting you follow it blindly .

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      1. TheDazzler
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 1 month ago

        If you use it at all I believe you are making an error, that's my point.
        No disrespect intended to the OP, kudos to him for putting the work in but I think there are clear errors in the method, which I and others have pointed out.
        Surely if a theory is put up, criticism should be welcomed to refine and improve the model?

        Best of luck to all for the GW.

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    2. superfrank
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 1 month ago

      good points.... but surely the important thing is the end result.... 100% is 100 %. Until it missfires, I wouldn't ignore it

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  10. Bolivian Seaman
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 1 month ago

    Thanks for the article. Lukaku does look a good bet for this weekend

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