The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 26

While my current situation is far from desperate, I was somewhat dismayed to discover that my rank had regressed to its original position in Gameweek 18.

That’s somewhat ironic as, back then, my Preamble opened its arms to a brand new and significant signing: Lady Luck.

I can’t help but look back at those words with a wry smile.

I actually acknowledged my good fortune in earning Andreas Christensen’s clean sheet at Huddersfield. Then I went on to thank the Fantasy gods for handing me circumstances that “helped me” to hold onto Alvaro Morata, avoiding a swap to Roberto Firmino.

Oh how that turned on me.

As we know now, Christensen – brought in over Phil Jones back in Gameweek 15 – has since been blighted by the worst passage of Fantasy misfortune in memory.

Meanwhile, that “stroke of luck” that allowed me to keep Morata eventually saw him struck down with a crisis of confidence. Indeed, the only goal he scored from that point on was in an unexpected appearance in the EFL Cup, which got him booked and suspended for the celebration.

That particular preamble now exists as a reminder of how quickly events can turn and how good luck can be reversed.

I’m not bleating; this will be typical in all our seasons we know that we’re often at the mercy of fine margins. But its how we acknowledge and react to our fortune that matters.

I have to look on the events that follow and acknowledge that, while I made errors, some were punished in the extreme.

I always had my doubts on Morata, but even then, I couldn’t predict his run of big misses, his suspension, or indeed Firmino’s burst of Gameweek scores which mark his most consistent and prolific of his Fantasy career. It was a dramatic swing.

Similarly, nobody could have foreseen Christensen’s illness and the 57-minute cameos that followed. Since Gameweek 18, he earned me a single clean sheet and 10 points; Jones has scored 30.

We all make mistakes over the season, but sometimes fortune can play a part in deciding the scale of those blunders.

So while I’ve made no progress since Gameweek 18, I shouldn’t lay all the blame at my own door and rip up my guiding principles and strategy.

I toyed with the idea of going back into my shell, minimising risk and ploughing a more pragmatic “dullard” path for a while. But instead, I feel I should stick to my guns and ride things out.

Back in Gameweek 18, I was attempting to highlight how we all need to respect the luck when it turns our way. Equally, we need to be aware when we’ve been the victim of misfortune and remain calm. This is the game we play.

No matter how much we use data and logic to govern our decisions and predict their outcome, there will always be elements we can’t control.

By investing time and emotion in Fantasy Football, we are at the mercy of the run of the ball, an errant refereeing decision, a flu bug or even player ego.

We have to be wary of throwing blame and abandoning trusted strategies when some of those things conspire against us.