The Digest – Gameweek 29

Our coverage of Gameweek 29 concludes today as we check in with the latest player, team and talking point to catch our attention.

Son Heung-min punishes his recent raft of sellers with a Wembley brace as the transfers in escalate again.

The appointment of Javi Gracia continues to look good news for Watford’s Fantasy prospects ahead of a fine run of fixtures.

Meanwhile, the changes in form ahead of Gameweek 31 highlights the downside of loading up in players well in advance at a time when many rivals will be wielding the Free Hit Chip.

The Player

After failing to score in each of the previous five Gameweeks, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) faith in Son Heung-min was in sharp decline.

Over 205,000 FPL managers had parted company with the Spurs midfielder during that period, with the return to action of Erik Lamela, allied with the arrival of Lucas Moura, placing question marks over pitch-time.

Those doubts were exacerbated after the South Korean’s omission from the Gameweek 28 teamsheet at Crystal Palace ended a run of 13 successive league starts.

But he returned to the first XI with a bang on Saturday.

While Harry Kane had to settle for an assist in the 2-0 home win over Huddersfield, Son turned in another convincing display at Wembley, scoring twice to end Gameweek 29 as the top scoring player on 16 points.

At home, Son has now scored nine of his ten goals and returned 111 of his 139 FPL points. Indeed, an average of 7.4 points per match at Wembley is superior to Kane (6.13), who has produced 92 of his 178 FPL points in front of his own supporters.

When on the pitch, Son has played a part in 45% of his side’s home goals – again, that’s superior to Kane’s 42%.

As a result, he is the second most bought player in FPL ahead of a weekend trip to Bournemouth.

Yet it’s arguable that if Son starts against Juventus tomorrow, he could be back on bench-warming duties for the Vitality showdown.

Given that Spurs then have a blank Gameweek 31 preceding back-to-back trips to Chelsea and Stoke, acquiring the South Korean clearly remains a gamble, albeit one with a substantial upside.

To profit from his Wembley output and limit the prospects of being hit by rotation, those Wildcarding in Gameweek 32 may be best penciling him in for Gameweek 34, given that four of Spurs’ final six league fixtures (MCI WAT LEI NEW) take place in front of their own fans.

The Team

A 1-0 win over West Brom moved Watford further ahead of the relegation dogfight as the impact of new manager Javi Gracia gains momentum.

In five matches under the Spaniard, the Hornets have chalked up three clean sheets and conceded only three goals – the third best record in the top-flight.

Meanwhile, they have won all three of their home matches, including a 4-1 rout of Chelsea in Gameweek 26.

Having scored in all three of those Vicarage Road triumphs, Troy Deeney’s Fantasy fortunes have clearly been boosted by the change in manager. Indeed, the target man had notched just twice prior to Gracia’s arrival.

As one of only eight sides to play in Gameweek 31, Watford’s appeal is somewhat dented by the fact that they travel to Liverpool in that round of fixtures.

However, it’s the matches around that Anfield encounter that could prove most profitable.

Up next is a trip to an Arsenal defence without a single clean sheet in the last 11 Gameweeks, while the schedule beyond that – (BOU BUR hud CRY tot NEW) – hands them a further four favourable matches in front of their own fans.

Having scored all five of his goals at home, Deeney (owned by less than 1%) is the obvious route into the attack at a time where Richarlison’s form and pitch-time remain in decline.

At the back, both Orestis Karnezis and Adrian Mariappa have cemented roles under the new manager, playing every minute of Gracia’s five matches in charge, while Jose Holebas’ raids down the left flank have also been a prominent part of their attacking ploys.

Admittedly, in all likelihood, the lack of a double Gameweek is likely to limit Fantasy managers’ interest in Watford’s key assets, particularly for those still with Wildcards in hand.

Nonetheless, if their ascent under the Spaniard continues, the Hornets cut-price options may yet be worth considering as both form and fixtures remain on side for the run-in.

The Talking Point

As pinpointed by a recent Hot Topic from Numb earlier this week, planning for the new Free Hit Chip in advance doesn’t come without its drawbacks.

Fantasy managers who opted to ignore this option for Gameweek 31 and instead focus their short-term trades on the restricted round of fixtures have been more susceptible to recent changes in both team and player form.

As the Gameweek 31 fixture list gradually firmed up, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino were the clear-cut candidates.

Both have continued delivering points, yet if you committed to a full quota on Liverpool players earlier, you may have missed Sadio Mane’s improved output – the Senegal international has five goals in last three in all competitions.

Callum Wilson, Theo Walcott and Xherdan Shaqiri were also among our prime early targets.

Yet while the Potters’ midfielder has justified our faith, scoring in three of the last four Gameweeks, Wilson and Walcott have drawn blanks on each of those occasions.

That comes on the back of the Bournemouth man bagging four goals and two assists over Gameweek 20-25, while Walcott supplied two goals and an assist in first two matches for the Toffees.

Over at Huddersfield, Steve Mounie and Alex Pritchard have seemingly swept aside the threat of rotation to start each of the last three. Mounie supplied two goals and two assists in those matches, while Pritchard has a goal and two assists

Elsewhere in attack, the abovementioned Deeney is suddenly an option.

At the back, both Watford and Stoke are prime examples of vastly improved defences – thanks, in both cases, to a change of manager.

Before Javi Gracia took the helm in Gameweek 25, the Hornets had the league’s second-worst defence – only Stoke (50 to 44) had conceded more goals. As mentioned in the section above, only Spurs and City have been more resilient since the Spaniard arrived at Vicarage Road.

It’s a similar story at Stoke since the appointment of Paul Lambert. The Potters had the worst goals against (50) in the league in the first 23 Gameweeks but have since conceded just four times in the subsequent six – only Spurs and Man City (both three) are better off.

Essentially, three of Watford’s eight clean sheets this season were registered in the last five Gameweeks, while three of Stoke’s five shutouts have come in the previous six fixtures.

However, one look at the “Form” tab in FPL shows how difficult it has been to pinpoint short-term acquisitions for those playing the Free Hit Chip in Gameweek 31.

Among the top six players per position are the likes of Mike van der Hoorn, Ki Sung-yueng, Bernardo Silva, Glenn Murray and Dwight Gayle. Could we really have second-guessed their rises in output in advance?

Granted, those playing the Free Hit Chip in Gameweek 31 will now have the luxury of loading up on the optimum quota of players. Yet the same logic surely applies to those playing it in Gameweek 35, with the advantage swinging from one to the other. As we try to get to grips with the Free Hit Chip for the first time, this may just be the nature of the beast.