Metrics – The Gameweek 34 Chips

In tonight’s article, we present some metrics on the different strategies and picks found among the top 10,0000 managers in Fantasy Premier League ahead of Double Gameweek 34.

As discussed in my midweek piece, the top 10k were expected to own an average of 9.08 double players ahead of Saturday’s deadline once their free transfers were used. Indeed, having looked at the final data, we now find that the average was raised to 9.45 players with two fixtures once transfer hits had been made.

Indeed, the average deducted points for hits is higher than normal, with the average transfer cost standing at -2.28 points, with Double Gameweek assets justifying the extra outlay.

The full distribution of double players number for the top 10k is shown below

We see that 53% of the top 10k managers achieved a number between 7-10 Double Gameweek players, while around only third of managers got at least 11.

Of course, this number is a big factor when it comes to the choice of the chip activated.

Here are the percentage of chips used among the top 10k managers for Gameweek 34.

Following this latest update, the total usage of chips in the top 10k increased as follows.

Although 34.8% activated the Bench Boost chip this week, there are still around 48% of managers in the top 10k who have kept it in reserve, while there are more than 52% Triple Captains still intact. In both cases, we are likely to see these played over the Gameweek 37 doubles.

Now let’s put those managers with chips active under more scrutiny.

For the 18.23% who used the Triple Captain, we see that Romelu Lukaku seems to be the most popular choice (8.73%) while Harry Kane comes in second (4.79%). Meanwhile, only 1.8% triple captained Alexis Sanchez as he continues to shape up as a potentially powerful differential.

Now we shift gears to the most used chip this week, the Bench Boost.

Below is the template team made up of the most selected by those managers with that chip active in the top 10k.

The average Bench Boost manager has chosen to keep trust in three single fixture players. Mohamed Salah, Andy Robertson and Luka Milivojevic – who certainly justified that faith.

This line-up highlights the ownership of players but doesn’t really tell us the make-up of the typical bench.

To gain more insight on that, I checked the four cheapest players in every Bench Boost squad and assumed these would constitute the bench in a regular Gameweek.

The following table shows the most selected bench players for those with the Bench Boost active.

We see that the most common bench is: Matt Lowton, Wes Morgan, Ben Chilwell and Matthew Ryan, with Kevin Long, James Tarkowski and Nick Pope also proving key targets.

In summary, Bench Boosters are relying heavily on the Burnley and Leicester defences to provide them with the extra points. Unfortunately, the two sides met at Turf Moor today, and neither came out of the fixture with a clean sheet. Both are at home in midweek, however.

Now, we look at another chip activated by just 4.34% of top 10k managers this week, the Free Hit.

With the chip active, we could reasonably expect that managers would load up on Double Gameweek players, selecting the cheapest bench options possible.

Indeed the template selection confirms this, with heavy hitters like Lukaku, Sanchez, Kane, Christian Eriksen and Salah all proving the go-to options.

Free Hit managers have a strong line-up for Gameweek 34, then, but will likely struggle with the Gameweek 35 blanks to come.

Having covered chip use, let’s go back to the player selection statistics for all the top 10k managers.

One key question we had in mind is what forwards should we own for the Double Gameweek?

Managers had to decide how to combine the likes of Kane, Lukaku and Jamie Vardy or simply opt for all three.

Below I have calculated the combination percentages.

Vardy seems to be the common factor in all the most popular selections. There are even more teams with only Vardy of the three, than with Kane and Lukaku or any of them alone.

However, for captaincy selection, Vardy ranks third, with fierce competition between Lukaku and Kane.

Another burning question was whether to keep or sell Salah. From the metrics in the top 10k, it looks as though the majority of managers chose to retain the Egyptian after his Champions League heroics.

Salah’s ownership dropped slightly from 81.2% last week to 76.6%, so only 4.6% of the top 10k managers moved him out.

Finally, I’ll leave you with a table of players with the most ownership in the top 10k and their effective ownership this week.

Note that ownership includes managers who benched the player this week, while effective ownership includes only starting players with their captaincy statistics included.