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Why you should be hesitant about Chelsea Defenders in FPL

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A new man between the sticks? 

Chelsea have completed the signing of Edouard Mendy (5.0m) from Rennes for a 22m transfer fee after nearly 2 years of monitoring the goalkeeper. This news will be a relief for most Chelsea fans after the recurring mistakes of current number 1 Kepa Arrizabalaga (5.0m). However, I’ve taken off my blue-tinted glasses for a second and taken time to assess what this really means for Chelsea, FPL, and more specifically if we should be looking more closely at Chelsea assets for our defences. You need only read the comment of the Chelsea director; Marina Granovskaia saying that the signing of Mendy will ”compliment” the squad suggesting this is more than just a straight replacement.

Who is Mendy?

Like many of you, I wasn’t familiar with Mendy before he was linked and close to signing for Chelsea. But if we look at his time at Rennes, we can begin to understand why he was sought after by the 2012 Champions League winners. Making a total of 86 appearances for Reims between 2016-2019 helping them gain promotion to Ligue 1 and 34 appearances for Rennes, Mendy certainly has experience. But were those appearances any good? Well, last season Mendy kept 9 clean sheets in 24 appearances. Contrast this to Kepa who kept 8 in 33 appearances. While these numbers won’t set the world alight, they do indicate that Mendy is at least on par with Kepa. His save percentage during the 2019/20 campaign of 76.3% is a clear cut above Kepa’s 53.5%.

Is he better than the incumbent?

It’s easy to sit here and laugh this question off with the reply ”well he can’t be any worse” but say for a minute that Mendy does get thrown in straight away against West Brom. Chelsea fans can be ruthless and if he overplays with his feet at the back subsequently allowing a soft West Brom goal, fans will soon be asking who this Kepa imposter is. Now I’m not out to just bash Kepa here, far from it.  A moment that stands out for me from his tenure was his quick reaction save against Watford in the dying moments of the game at Vicarage Road last season. I can assure you that day 95% of Chelsea fans considered him a hero myself included. But as we all know, football is a ruthless business and you can go from hero to zero just as quickly as Manchester City winning the league at home to QPR.

If my fantasy team is anything to go by, I’m a complete advocate of second chances but it feels that Kepa has had around six or seven and failed to iron out these persistent and costly errors. Fans have been crying out for a Kepa replacement for a while. Some even after the Carabao cup final fiasco in which Kepa point blank refused to be subbed off by then manager Sarri after it appeared he was injured. This brought a fair bit of embarrassment to the club and ruined the credibility of Sarri as Manager.

What does this mean for FPL?

Mendy is the same price as Kepa at 5.0m so if anyone was brave enough to have Kepa in from Gameweek 1 it would be a straight swap to Mendy if he was to usurp Kepa as number 1. But with far more value keepers available such as Matt Ryan (4.5m) at Brighton and Alex McCarthy (4.5m) at Southampton. it would be quite a risk signing Mendy without at least a few weeks for him settle in and to find his role at the club.

Late 24th September in the evening it was rumoured that Roma have put a loan offer in for Kepa. If this comes to fruition, then Mendy would be the clear next in line to take the number 1 spot. Whether this was the plan all along by Chelsea is unknown. If this were to happen in the next few weeks it would certainly make me take notice of Chelsea’s defence as a whole. One thought that has always put me off signing a Chelsea defender was ”Reece James (5.1m) looks good but Kepa is still in goal”  But with Kepa potentially going out on loan and the signings of Thiago Silva (5.5m) and Ben Chilwell (5.5m) only strengthening their defence, looking at Chelsea’s backline has become a fantasy option once again.

Conclusion 

Before investing in Chelsea’s defence again as I have done in previous seasons, I would be extremely cautious. Manager Frank Lampard is still very much experimenting whether he prefers James as a long term replacement to Cesar Azpilicueta (5.9m). He appears very much in favour and with one price rise already this season, James looks to be going from strength to strength. Just bear in mind he won’t score 35-yard screamers every week. I would like clear evidence of improvement in the backline before going anywhere near those Chelsea assets. I’d also want to see Mendy settle into the premier league as we know how some players have flourished foreign league but have struggled immensely in England.

It’s an interesting situation at Chelsea but not one I will drastically change my fantasy approach this season.

James878 James, 24, Southern England. I am in my 7th season in FPL with my best finish being 18/19 season where I finished inside the top 22k and last season finishing inside the top 65k. Chelsea fan. FPL obsessed

20 Comments Post a Comment
  1. andy85wsm
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks for this!

    Personally I'm all over Chelsea defenders as soon as I get a free transfer.

    Numbers looked good last year, and the xGC prevented by Kepa was poor in comparison to Mendy who seemed to do okay.

    If James starts again in GW3 which looks likely he's hard to ignore, and Chilwell should be nailed on. I'm excited to see what they can offer.

    1. James878
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      No worries, thanks for publishing!

      This is true, things can only get better and it's a massive season for Reece James who looks to be transitioning into Azpilicueta's role more frequently this season anyway. Chillwell will be nailed on so the points potential looks quite lucrative.

      1. andy85wsm
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        My post did not age well 😀

  2. Kroos Kontrol
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    A good piece overall but I think this is slightly overreacting to last season. The big black mark against Chelsea's defence is that it has absolutely no track record, beyond playing tactics which conceded 50+ goals last season. However, the actual image is a bit more nuanced as you go down.

    Chelsea had the third best xGA in 2018-19 (and the third best defence). Then they, in 2019-20, had the fifth best xGA (just 1.52 less than Liverpool over 38 games), but the 11th best defence. This gets even mroe stark as you break it down, Chelsea conceded 16 goals at home last season (just as much as Liverpool, 1 more than Sheffield, 3rd best) with the best xGA in the league (12.69, next is 14.59 by City, then 17.35 by Liverpool). Of course, it's a pretty bad image away (level with Norwich at 20th for most goals conceded away, 10th best in xGA)

    However, if a team has an incredibly good home defensive record, that shows they're still a good defence that can a) really improve (see Liverpool 17-18 to 18-19) and b) be good to rotate given how solid they are at home.

    Now I get the point - you're having a back 5 with three new players (Thiago Silva, Chilwell, Mendy), and likely a 20-year old (Reece James). Depending on Silva's fitness, you may actually see combinations of Tomori/Christensen/Zouma as well (further making things hard with the lack of a consistent CB partnership). The thing to worry about is whether they'll be an improvement to players past - which I argue isn't that hard when your competition is Kepa, Alonso and an out-of-form Rudiger/Christensen, with Kante only fit for 20 starts/38 games.

    Chelsea doesn't need to show improvement, more they just need to come back to performing on their regular xA, to be a good defence. Fixture proof at best if they start dominating/getting the press going, great on rotations at worst.

    P.S. Mendy will be given time (unless you only look at "fans" on twitter), and I don't see overplaying at the back being that big an issue on him given the easy opening fixtures he has (plus Alisson did it in his 4th game so it's not the end of the world). Kepa messed up on his 2nd/3rd game but it took 1.5 years for the media perception to really turn on him.

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      It's worth considering that Lampard keepers tend to perform worse in general, but Mendy is a much stronger shot stopper than Kepa anyways. The appeal of James is too high for me to ignore at 5M.

    2. James878
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Valid points there. Most importantly the lack of consistency in the lineup is not good enough. If you a 4 man defence who plays together week in week out, then the chemistry would be so good there it'll only have positive effects on their performances. Whereas this Chelsea defence has so much league rotation none of these players have gelled defensively.

      I can only hope that our defence gets better this season and we return to our former solid nature at the back. Having said this. I am writing this when we're 3-0 away at West Brom. So the task is monumental.

  3. Dr Van Nostrand
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Not going anywhere near Chelski's defence. Lamps has never been able to defend and they condede a very high number of quality chances that won't be solved with a better keeper. Aiming for 2-3 attackers tho.

  4. Garlana
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    As an owner of Havertz for the first two gameweeks and now on a wildcard i find it strange that im starting to get really tempted to put him in assuming he plays ACM. Yes his hatrick was against a Championship side but i've a feeling Tammy may start up top as well against West Brom (who worked well with him vs Barnsley) and West Brom are also effectively a Championship side themselves. Is this one of those gut feel moments that you just go with or is this because ive been on a wildcard all week and ive considered 99% of the players? im not sure but he will be a huge differential in a game that potentially has plenty of goals in it.

  5. JURGENAUT
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Play 1 of the following:

    A) Soucek
    B) Justin

    Thanks

  6. Tokosbobet88
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Hey yall

  7. grooveymatt65
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Hi guys How does this look?

    My team is:

    McCarthy Martin

    TAA, Ayling, Justin Mitchell Bernado

    Salah Son De Bruyne (c) Zaha Bissouma

    Werner Mitrovic DCL

    (0.2 itb)

    thanks!

  8. shun
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Scout should make a Specialty area for the question ‘What about my team’
    Every article behind is ‘My team is...’, but no one discuss the article.
    I paid money not to read the comment like that, totally foolish

  9. ⚽️ Omardiola ⚽️
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    foden or torres ?

  10. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    How many more are they going to concede to West Brom?

    1. have you seen cyan
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Think it will end 4-2, maybe 4-3

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Amazing that Reece James is still on 2 bonus points, despite being 3-0 down and getting a yellow card!!

        1. have you seen cyan
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          indeed, but that will change

          1. RedLightning
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            I only hope it's for the better.

  11. WVA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Buggar off Mount

  12. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    any news on ASM?