Van Gaal Confirmed as United Boss

Kieran Trippier

It seems like the whole of FFS is getting a bit giddy at the prospect of Burnley's Kieran Trippier being in FPL next season. A budget-friendly, assist-machine defender is the stuff of dreams apparently, and few seem to be in any doubt that he is a 'must have' for next season. I'm certain he'll be in a staggering number of RMTs before we see GW1 kick off but I'm not so sure we should be falling over ourselves to invest.

Most of the nailed on defenders from the promoted clubs come in at £4.5m but there's usually at least one from each team available at a cheeky £4.0m. Best case scenario: Trippier is in the £4.5m bracket. Worst case scenario: FPL assess his potential in the same exuberant manner as many round here and slap a hefty £5.0m price tag on him. That's a 0.5/1.0 premium you'll be paying on the basis of attacking potential - a risky game to play when attacking returns are difficult to predict. Unless you're planning to play a Burnley defender every game there's a good chance you'll bench some of those attacking points which starts to negate the reason to own him in the first place.

I've run some stats to try to help me decide if he really will be worth it.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trippier's Key Figures From Last Season

Appearances: 41 (21 home, 20 away)
Goals: 1 (scored at home)
Assists: 12 (7 home, 5 away)

Burnley's Key Figures From Last Season

Games: 46
Goals: 72 (37 home, 35 away)
Goals Conceded: 37 (14 home, 23 away)
Clean Sheets: 18 (11 home, 7 away)

The following are some calculations I've performed to try to estimate his possible FPL performances. (There will be some numbers which don't quite add up as I've displayed them rounded to the nearest integer, the calculations are performed on the accurate, unrounded numbers though.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we were to work on a strict pro rata basis and assume Burnley and Trippier would perform at these levels in the Premier League with the only difference being a reduced number of fixtures, I calculate Trippier's potential stats as:

Appearances: 34 (17 home, 17 away)
Goals: 1 (scored at home)
Assists: 10 (6 home, 4 away)

In FPL terms this would translate into:

68 appearance points
53 clean sheet points
-9 points for goals conceded
30 points for assists
5 points for a goal
147 points total

This would be at Fonte (149), Cahill (147) and Zabaleta (146) standards from the season just gone.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we were to assume Burnley will match Crystal Palace's performances from this season, that would be:

Appearances: 34 (17 home, 17 away)
Goals: 1 (scored at home)
Assists: 5 (3 home, 2 away)

In FPL terms this would translate into:

68 appearance points
43 clean sheet points
-16 points for goals conceded
17 points for assists
3 points for a goal
114 points total

This would be at Kolarov (116), C. Davies (115) and Demel (112) standards from the season just gone.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we were to assume Burnley will match Hull's performances from this season, that would be:

Appearances: 34 (17 home, 17 away)
Goals: 1 (scored at home)
Assists: 6 (4 home, 2 away)

In FPL terms this would translate into:

68 appearance points
36 clean sheet points
-17 points for goals conceded
19 points for assists
3 points for a goal
108 points total

This would be at Azpilicueta (109), Shawcross and Cameron (108) standards from the season just gone.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we were to assume Burnley will match Cardiff's performances from this season, that would be:

Appearances: 34 (17 home, 17 away)
Goals: 0
Assists: 5 (3 home, 2 away)

In FPL terms this would translate into:

68 appearance points
25 clean sheet points
-33 points for goals conceded
16 points for assists
3 points for a goal
78 points total

This would be at Mariappa, Smalling (79) and R. Martin (78) standards from the season just gone.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conclusion

With kind opening fixtures and a £4.5m price tag I may be tempted to take a chance, anything else and I'll be steering clear - if I'm paying for attacking potential I don't want to see half of it wasted on the bench and I doubt I'll want to play a Burnley defender every week.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Notes

- I haven't included positive points for Bonus as it's too complex a system to take a stab at for me but fair to say Trippier would earn a boost through this.
- I haven't included negative points for Yellow/Red Cards or Own Goals.
- 'FPL assists' may boost his figures (although this doesn't have a big impact on everyone - Trippier's typical style of assist is probably more fairly reflected in the figures than many).
- Burnley's record last season was more similar to Cardiff's promotion season than either of the other two clubs.

This is obviously massively over the top analysis and blatantly unnecessary but things are quiet and it's the kind of thing I do in the pre-season 🙂