Euro 2012 Team Analysis – Italy

Our coverage of next month’s Euro 2012 tournament continues as we delve deeper into Group C, following on from our look at Croatia last time round. Up to the plate for the next analysis this afternoon shall be Italy…

Italy’s first fixture is quite possibly going to be their toughest challenge – they kick-start their tournament against reigning World and European champions Spain at 5pm on June 10. Another 5pm kick-off follows on June 14 when Croatia come up to bat, before Group C is closed out at 7.45pm on June 18 with a fixture against a Republic of Ireland side managed by one of their old stewards, Giovanni Trapattoni.

Group C will definitely be one in which Italy will be expected to progress from. As shown by Switzerland in the last World Cup, a solid defence and good counter attack can help a team get through an otherwise daunting fixture against a Spain side which won all eight of their qualifying games, though it will be the other two teams in the group that Italy will hope to get the better of. Croatia are not the threat that we used to know in the era of Davor Suker and co while, for all their qualities, the threat of Ireland should be something Italy can overcome – despite previous issues in qualifying for World Cup 2010. A second place finish in the group is the least that will be expected by the boys back home.

The Road To Qualification

An unbeaten run with just a couple of goals conceded saw Italy casually stroll their way through to the main showpiece this summer in Poland and Ukraine. Two away draws – a goalless affair in Northern Ireland and 1-1 in Serbia – were the lowest points of Italy’s campaign, with the biggest story of the qualification saga ending up, rather unfortunately, being for matters off the field. Trouble in the crowds in Genoa sparked by Serbian “Ultras” caused the fixture to be abandoned after only 6 minutes of play to ensure the safety of all parties. This led to fines and sanctions for both nations, much more heavily for the Serbians, and Italy being awarded a 3-0 victory as a forfeit.

Most Appearances: Cassano, Chiellini (10), Pirlo (9), Montolivo, Pazzini (8), De Rossi, Rossi (7)

Most Goals: Cassano (6), Pazzini (2).

Most Assists: Montolivo (3)

The Likely Lads

With the best defensive record in qualifying – though the timid opponents they came up against certainly played their part – you have to consider the men that carry that form forward into the main competition this June. Juventus defender Giorgio Chiellini was a mainstay through qualifying and gets a McDonald’s price (7.0) to replicate his impact and security of selection. The centre-back is currently nursing a thigh strain picked up in Juve’s final league game of the season but is expected to recover in time for Italy’s crucial first game.

The creativity of Andrea Pirlo is likely to be crucial to his nation’s chances. The deep-lying playmaker excelled in the domestic campaign gone by, producing some of the best football of his career to help guide Juventus to the title, with three goals and 13 assists to his name. While a price of 8.0 has deterred many from investing – Pirlo has just 3.4% ownership right now – his set-piece duties and pinpoint passing means his potential for Fantasy returns cannot be overlooked.

Only two players scored more than a single goal in qualifying for Italy. One of those was Giampaolo Pazzini – who wasn’t selected in Prandelli’s squad – and the other is Antonio Cassano, who notched six as the Italians waltzed through their opposition. The fact that Cassano has been able to be called up at all is a miracle unto itself and perhaps explains why he was late in being added to the McDonald’s game (he’s now available at 8.0). The forward underwent heart surgery in November of last year but sufficiently recovered to score and set up two goals in his first start for upon returning for Milan away to Siena at the end of April. If you pardon the horrible pun, he is the beating heart of the Italian quest for goals and will be vital to their future in this competition.

Cheeky Punt

With the afore-mentioned Pazzini left out of the squad and Giuseppe Rossi absent through injury, a forward place in the starting XI looks to have opened up. Some will likely fall by the wayside when Prandelli’s squad is whittled down from 32 to 23 but the pre-tournament friendlies against Luxemburg and Russia could be the deciding factor in swaying the Italy manager one way or another.

Prandelli’s tactics in a 70-minute, 6-1 win over Serie D side Virtus Vecomp Verona, however, suggests he is willing to tinker prior to naming his final squad. Fantasy managers will be intrigued to see Italy line up in a 4-3-2-1 formation with Cassano and Sebastian Giovinco fielded behind Antonio Di Natale.

Di Natale grabbed a double in the win and the Udinese man is a bona fide goal getter with a stunning 80 racked up in his last three Serie A campaigns. If the 8.0 priced forward survives the final selection cull after earning his first call-up since World Cup 2010, he may provide just the cutting edge that Italy need to go far in this tournament. Parma’s Giovinco is also priced at 8.0 and has been snapped up by just 2.9% of Fantasy managers thus far. It’s also worth noting that he took all Italy’s corners in their final qualifying game against Northern Ireland, despite Pirlo being on the park – this could boost his appeal for those after a real differential.

Manchester City forward Mario Balotelli is another to onsider but the immeasurable baggage that this uber-talented Premier League winner carries cannot be underestimated and may ultimately be his undoing. If he looks set to get the time on the pitch then Balotelli’s 8.5 McDonald’s price-tag may just prove to be one of the bargains of the tournament. As long as he can keep his cool. Roma striker Fabio Borini (7.0) is likely to be the longest of shots but he also impressed in the 6-1 win, grabbing a goal after climbing off the bench.

Finally, given their solidity at the back, many Fantasy managers will perhaps be looking to explore avenues cheaper than Chiellini into the Italian backline. While Ignazio Abate’s price of 5.0 has already seen 29% snap up his services, it’s far from certain he’s a starter, with 6.5 priced Christian Maggio perhaps the favourite to beat Abate to the right-back role. Domenico Criscito is priced at 6.0 and is thought by many to be Prandelli’s first-choice left-back; with just 5.5% ownership, he’s not only cheaper but more of a differential that Chiellini in defence.

Further Analysis

Group A Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, Russia
Group B Denmark, Gemany, Holland, Portugal
Group C Croatia