Hindsight bias is when we believe something was easier than it really was, because we are subconsciously using information which we only found out after the event. I will give an example of hindsight bias in action.
When I asked on Fantasy Football Scout before the last round which two defenders I should bench from the following: Vincent Kompany, Nathaniel Clyne, Kurt Zouma, Hector Bellerin and Patrick van Aanholt the verdict was fairly unanimous, bench Zouma and Kompany, to which I agreed.What followed on the Tuesday was one point for Van Aanholt , and two points for Bellerin, meanwhile Zouma excelled as Chelsea kept a clean sheet against Everton. When I logged onto Fantasy Football Scout there was a discussion calling my decision strange. With the benefit of hindsight these people were criticising my decision, which at the time with the information at hand was perfectly logical. They could not see that they were rewriting history, based on information not available at the time of my decision. To them it looked so obvious after the event. The mind is a very powerful trickster
The Dangers of Hindsight Bias
It could be Fantasy Football, stock-market trading, or gambling; whatever the activity, hindsight bias can be detrimental, leading to unrealistic expectations and confusing logic with outcomes.
Allowing Poor Outcomes To Alter Future Decisions
Hindsight bias prevents us learning from the past, we become confused about when we knew things:
I will never play Bellerin over Zouma again, what a stupid mistake .
WRONG! The real mistake is linking outcome with selection. At the time an attack-minded Bellerin at home to Leicester was the better choice, especially as we knew he was a definite starter. However, the poor outcome is likely to lead to future unwarranted bias against him. We have all had a bad experience with a captain and vowed never to use them again, not based on logic, but the pain of a bad experience
I Knew I Was Right
Hindsight bias makes us think we are better than we are, we naturally think that all our decisions that work out well were the result of great skill, while those that don’t work out, we dismiss as bad luck, leading to over confidence.
Wow, I knew Harry Kane was a better captaincy choice than Alexis Sanchez this week, I’m going to captain him every week now.
This type of thinking just leads to over confidence, and is not based on a logical analysis of a given situation, but is merely a response to a good outcome. As they say in investment circles, past results may not be repeated in the future.
Conclusions
We all suffer from hindsight bias, it’s very natural and difficult to combat. The first step is to realise it exists, and make a conscious effort not to always link outcome with a faulty or brilliant decision. A good way is to keep a journal or blog, it helps to anchor thoughts in their correct time. For example a quick look back at the Gameweek’s captain poll shows Sanchez was, after Olivier Giroud’s non-start the massive first choice. At the time very few were interested in captaining Kane or Sergio Aguero. Some were even considering benching.
Try to keep an open mind and analyse situations on their merit and not on emotional responses to outcomes from the previous Gameweek.
9 years, 2 months agoI agree. It was like when many benched Kane against Chelsea and he ended up with a huge points haul. Given the fixtures that week and the opposition it was the sensible thing to do. Weeks on we know now that Kane is actually performing way above his price tag, but as you say - that is with hindsight.