Fixture Analysis – Rotation Pairs – West Brom and Aston Villa

Having assessed the prospects of a Leicester and Swansea rotation pairing, we continue our Fixture Analysis series with a look at Midlands pair West Brom and Aston Villa, who offer a perfect home and away combination over the entire 38 Gameweeks.

THE FIXTURES

Although the home matches across the first three Gameweeks for this combination involve Manchester City, Man United and Chelsea, the good news is that the away matches (bou, wat, cpl) are far kinder, allowing us to play the fixtures rather than sticking to the home option each time.

Indeed, there would be just one occasion – Gameweek 12, where Villa host City and the Baggies roll up to Old Trafford – where you’d be forced to go up against one of last season’s top four prior to the January Wildcard coming into play.

By picking the “easier” fixture, you’d be handed only 11 home encounters in the first 20 rounds (bou, wat, cpl, SUN, lei, WBA, EVE, STO, SUN, nor, LEI, eve, WAT, TOT, liv, BOU, WHM, NEW, sun), though the upside of this is that West Brom produced eight of their 16 shut-outs on the road in the previous campaign and are equally resilient away from the Hawthorns.

Looking at the fixtures over the second half of the campaign, you’d face one of last season’s top four on a single occasion, when the Baggies host United and Villa pay visit to City in Gameweek 29. Indeed, looking at our Season Ticker, the “easiest” fixture would be at home in 16 of the final 19 Gameweeks.

While the Midlands pairing offer perfect rotation over the 38 Gameweeks, there are other alternative partners for both sides. The Baggies and Premier League new boys Bournemouth offer a good fixture for 34 of the 38 Gameweeks, while Villa combine with Watford for the same number of fixtures, along with Everton. The expected pricing of the Toffees defensive assets makes them unlikely targets for defensive rotations, however.

DEFENCE

West Brom
As things stand, Boaz Myhill should start the season in goal for Pulis’ men, with first-choice goalkeeper Ben Foster expected to return from a knee injury in October. Given the improvement of the West Brom rearguard under the former Stoke manager, it is likely that most of their starters will set us back at least 5.0 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), although Myhill may initially come in slightly cheaper at 4.5 and will bound to feature in many pre-season plans.

At the back, Joleon Lescott and Gareth McAuley were the only two players to start every one of the Baggies’ 18 league matches under Pulis last term and look nailed on. Lescott sat fourth for efforts in the box (nine) from Gameweek 21 onwards and registered 127 points in FPL from 34 appearances, scoring once and providing two assists.

Craig Dawson also looks a likely candidate at right-back, having seen off the challenge of on-loan Andre Wisdom under Pulis, though the opposite side of defence could frustrate Fantasy managers. If the Baggies boss opts for Chris Brunt, we could be restricted to just three first-choice West Brom defenders to choose from, given that the Northern Ireland international is expected to be listed as a midfielder across the Fantasy games. Lescott’s versatility could see him shift to the left if Pulis opts for Jonas Olsson, though the Swede’s minutes are far from secure – he featured in just nine of Pulis’ 18 matches last time out.

Aston Villa
Uncertainty currently surrounds Tim Sherwood’s number one for the season ahead. Shay Given ended last term as the first-choice ahead of Brad Guzan, starting in three of Villa’s last four league fixtures and in the 4-0 defeat to Arsenal in the FA Cup final. Speculation over a move for Stoke’s Asmir Begovic throws up further doubt, so unless the situation clears up before the start of the season, it could be safer to opt for a Villa defender if you’re looking to cover their backline.

None of Villa’s defenders set us back more than 4.5 in FPL last year, and following a 17th place finish in the Premier League, that could be the case once more. If West Brom’s regulars are priced at 5.0, then, we’d expect this pairing to set us back 9.5 between them.

Ron Vlaar has yet to sign a new contract and could well be on his way out of the club. This may allow new signing Micah Richards to replace the Dutchman in the centre of defence, though the likes of Jores Okore, Ciaran Clark, Nathan Baker and Philippe Senderos offer alternatives should Sherwood opt to utilise Richards as a right-back instead.

Alan Hutton provided great value at times last term but he was in and out of the starting XI under Sherwood and may well lose his place to Leandro Bacuna. The Dutch 21 international – who has a share of free-kick duties – started nine of the final ten Gameweeks under Sherwood and registered five assists over that period, though he would need to be reclassified as a defender to come into contention as a viable option.

Kieran Richardson made five consecutive starts at left-back towards the end of the last season and should also be re-classified as a defender; though with a single assist all season, he will struggle to garner much attention.

ATTACKING OPTIONS

West Brom
It was a disappointing season for the Baggies’ midfielders, with only the aforementioned Chris Brunt breaking the 100-point barrier. Unless the Northern Ireland international returns to a midfield role, he holds little appeal for the coming season as a reverse out-of-position asset, though it’s worth noting he still managed to serve up a goal and five assists in the final seven matches and still has corner duties to bolster his potential.

Craig Gardner stepped up under Pulis, scoring twice and registering two assists in nine matches towards the end of the season. If he costs around 5.5 again in FPL, though, Gardner looks unlikely to attract many suitors, given the numerous strong options expected to be available in that price bracket.

Callum McManaman struggled with injuries following his January move from Wigan, but could come into consideration if he can establish himself in the starting XI, although he’ll be competing with new signing James McClean, who also joined from the Latics. Given that the Baggies are also in the market for QPR’s Matty Phillips, Pulis is clearly looking to freshen up his options on the flanks.

Should Darren Fletcher or Claudio Yacob be valued at 4.5, their security of starts could see them come into the equation as a cheap fifth midfielder, although attacking returns are unlikely, with just a single goal between the two last season.

Saido Berahino was third behind only Harry Kane and Charlie Austin among forwards for value last season, and was certainly one of the revelations of the campaign, scoring 14 goals. A knee injury ruled the striker out of the European U21 Championships, but he should be fit for the start of the new season. The downside of his stellar year will be the certain price hike from his 5.5 starting valuation from last season, which could seriously dent his prospects this time around. Pulis may well look to add some extra firepower up front, with Brown Ideye and Victor Anichebe struggling to make much of an impact last term.

Aston Villa
With Sherwood in charge, Villa averaged 1.46 goals per match, compared to 0.48 under Paul Lambert for the first 25 matches of last season, so we should see an improvement next season on the meagre 31 goals netted last time around. The former Tottenham boss managed to spark Christian Benteke into life, with the Belgian international scoring 11 goals in his final 11 appearances last season. There has been plenty of speculation linking the striker with a move to Liverpool, although at the moment it seems as though the Reds are unwilling to meet his £32.5 million buy-out clause. Should he remain at Villa Park, their opening fixtures will certainly place him on many of our watchlists, though there’d be no real surprise if the Belgian made his exit before the transfer window closes.

Elsewhere among the forwards, Gabriel Agbonlahor failed to break the 100-point mark for the second successive season and is unlikely to be on our radars unless he is attractively priced.

In midfield, Jack Grealish could provide a viable option if he continues to shine in an advanced midfield role as he did towards the end of last season. Likely to come in at 5.5 or under, the youngster should take up a wide position in the front three and started each of the last seven matches under Sherwood. Although he needs to up his output – having managed a single assist – his underlying stats suggest Grealish could prove great value.

Elsewhere on the flanks, Scott Sinclair and Charles N’Zogbia look likely to battle it out for the other starting berth, though both have their work cut out to convince Fantasy owners to invest given the paucity of returns last season. Fabian Delph produced three of his four assists in 2014/15 under Sherwood and should certainly stay in the budget bracket, though reports linking him with a move to Man City would likely take him out of the equation.