Rotation Pairs – Burnley & West Brom

Having kick-started our series of rotation articles with a look at the basic principles involved, we now turn our attentions to some of the most favourable pairings for the season ahead. To get this underway, we take a look at what’s on offer with Burnley and West Brom, who alternate home/away over 36 Gameweeks of the upcoming campaign.

The Fixtures

As discussed in our article on Burnley last month, Sean Dyche’s side served up 20 clean sheets in their Championship-winning campaign – 12 at home and eight on their travels.

Although the Clarets conceded less away goals than any Championship side last season, they failed to win on the road against any of the top eight – suggesting their home matches will be key to their chances of Fantasy returns.

West Brom were a source of frustration for Fantasy managers last time out and managed just five shut-outs at the Hawthorns, with a further six clean sheets on the road. An indication, perhaps, that the Baggies find it difficult to strike a balance when the onus is on attack in front of their own fans.

Nonetheless, the Burnley-West Brom pairing looks one of the most favourable rotation options across the opening 20 Gameweeks, which would take us up to the points when our second wildcards become available.

By selecting the team with the “easier” match-up according to our Fixture Ticker, we find that a rotating pair from these clubs face just four of last year’s top ten in the opening 20 matches – a visit from West Ham in Gameweek 5 and trip to Southampton in Gameweek 8 precede home encounters with Manchester City and Manchester United in Gameweeks 10 and 17 respectively.

Outwith those matches, the Burnley/West Brom partnership hands you a very encouraging 14 home fixtures and two road trips (SWA, EVE, MID, HUL, WAT, sun, EVE, CPL, BUR, hul, WAT, BOU, SWA, MID, SUN, HUL) during that period.

Looking beyond that point, by playing the fixtures you’d face just four of last year’s top ten in the final 18 matches. This time around, though, the run is less enticing as only ten of the matches would be at home (SOT, SUN, mid, STO, CHE, BOU, CPL, eve, sun, TOT, STO, mid, eve, MUN, cpl, WBA, bou, swa).

Alternatively, Burnley rotate with both Palace and Spurs for 34 Gameweeks, though the latter’s key targets are likely to be priced highly given that they boasted the joint-best defence along with Manchester United last term.

West Brom offer a similar option with Swansea and Arsenal, though, yet again, the Gunners can be expected to sit in the premium bracket on the back of 18 shut-outs in 2015/16.

If you’re looking to research further on rotation pairs, as mentioned in a previous article, we’ve introduced a new feature for members this season to help analyse potential fixture pairings via the Fixture Ticker. By selecting any team and hitting “sort by rotation”, the ticker now ranks those teams most appropriate for rotation with the highlighted team over the Gameweek range you choose to display. You can apply this using both the attacking and defence filters to analyse rotation pairings at both ends of the pitch.

The Defence

Burnley
As mentioned in our article on Burnley’s promoted squad, Tom Heaton was the second top-scoring keeper in the Fantasy Premier League in 2014/15, despite Burnley’s relegation – he earned ten clean sheets and registered 130 saves, including two spot-kicks. Heaton’s shot-stopping should ensure his points haul ticks over nicely and he could well emerge as the budget keeper of choice for many.

Michael Keane carries the main goal threat from defence and found the net on five occasions last time around. The centre-half produced 34 attempts on goal, with an effort every 114 minutes more or less on a par with Palace’s Scott Dann last year, for example. Champions Leicester have already tabled two bids for Keane, though, and his potential exit would clearly have a say on how we assess Sean Dyche’s defence.

Ben Mee started last season as a left-back before being installed alongside Keane in the heart of defence. Although he has a slight edge as the best option for Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI), potentially resulting in strong bonus point potential, Mee offers less of a goal threat than Keane and is more liable to collect yellow cards.

Dyche’s decision to install Matt Lowton and Stephen Ward at full-back over the final few months of 2015/16 was pivotal to the Clarets ending the season on a 23-match unbeaten run. Of the two, Ward boasts greater creativity but providing all Dyche’s regulars are priced at 4.5, Heaton and Keane look the most appealing options.

West Brom
Having recovered from a knee injury in mid-January, Ben Foster cemented his spot as the Baggies’ number one as deputy Boaz Myhill dropped to the bench. Foster and Myhill’s combined save tally of 113 over last term would have taken third spot – an indication of what we can expect if Foster steers clean of injury next time out. Indeed, his average of 3.7 points per game (ppg) was higher than any West Brom regular last year.

Like Burnley, the Baggies also offer us a standout option in terms of attacking threat. Craig Dawson registered more attempts inside the box than any top-flight defender in 2015/16 and his aerial menace from set-pieces helped him find the net on four occasions. Given that he ultimately averaged just 3.3 ppg, though, it’d be a surprise if Dawson came in above 5.0.

Jonny Evans was occasionally utilised in central midfield by Pulis and collected more bonus points than any defensive team-mate. As a result, he was almost on a par with Dawson for ppg (3.2), despite netting just once last term.

Elsewhere, Gareth McAuley holds a very slight edge over Dawson as top for CBI but notched just once by comparison. With Chris Brunt injured, the likes of Jonas Olsson and James Chester could come into contention if priced at 4.5 when the player list is revealed. Should Brunt be classified as a defender this time round – bearing in mind he’s mainly fielded at left-back – his share of dead-ball duties could bring him into contention once he’s recovered from a knee injury.

This Burnley and West Brom combination is likely to set you back 9.5, with the Baggies’ regulars expected to be slightly more expensive at 5.0 to the Clarets’ 4.5.

The Attack

Burnley
With 23 goals and eight assists in his first season at Turf Moor, hopes are high that Andre Gray will afford us a valid budget option for our three-man frontlines. Alternating with Sam Vokes on spot-kicks, Gray essentially played a part in 43% of their goals in 2015/16 and should come in around 5.5 or a maximum 6.0.

Vokes looks equally nailed-on in Dyche’s 4-4-2 and chipped in with 15 goals and four assists and fired just 11 shots less than Gray last year – if he comes in cheaper than his strike partner, he could yet emerge as an alternative.

Scott Arfield and site favourite George Boyd are currently secure options on the flanks. The latter proved a handy cheap fifth midfielder in the Clarets’ previous stint in the top-flight, though it’s Arfied who returns to the Premier League in better form – he racked up eight goals and six assists to Boyd’s five goals and as many assists.

Dyche’s replacement for Joey Barton in the centre of the park may yet offer us another name to consider, whilst David Jones’ dead-ball duties earned him seven assists last term.

Although they finished last season as joint-top scorers in the Championship, it’s worth noting that Burnley averaged just 11.9 shots per match – a tally better than just four other sides.

West Brom
The Midlands clubs’ attack will need to improve considerably to realistically offer us any valid options. Pulis’ men sat second-bottom for both goals and attempts on goal – better only than relegated Villa – and produced fewer shots on target (102) than any side over 2015/16.

As the only West Brom player to score more than four goals, Salomon Rondon seems their likeliest source of points. After a sluggish start to life at the Hawthorns, he ended up with nine strikes and three assists and played a part in seven of the Baggies’ final 12 goals, netting against the likes of Leicester, United and Liverpool.

Saido Berahino scored just one goal in the final 29 matches, even missing a pair of penalties at home to Watford in Gameweek 34. Despite that lack of form, there’s no shortage of suitors for his signature, with the youngster favourite to leave before the summer transfer window closes.

Aside from Dawson, Darren Fletcher was the only other player to start all 38 fixtures. A single goal, three assists and six bonus points was all the Baggies captain had to show for his endeavours, though on the upside, he’s likely to remain at 4.5 and should be one of the few guaranteed starters at that price.

Pulis’ tendency to shuffle his midfield options in the final third dilutes our options further. The likes of James Morrison, Stephane Sessegnon, James McClean and Craig Gardner all failed to start less than 30 matches last season and that inconsistency of selection ensures there’s little else to pique our interest.