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Are Liverpool Players Really Worth Drafting In?

Having warned of Eden Hazard’s concerning away stats ahead of his one-point blank away to Swansea, I now turn my party-pooping analysis to Liverpool’s upcoming run of appealing fixtures.

From Gameweek 6, Liverpool embark on such a truly ridiculous run of good fixtures that even their centre back Dejan Lovren is seeing his ownership swell:

HUL/swa/MUN/WBA/cpl/WAT/sot/SUN/bou/WHM/mid

Those eleven fixtures equate to all three promoted teams, five teams from last season’s bottom half and – crucially for this article – none of last season’s top four. Any other time this would be a Fantasy dream worthy of a triple-up, but is this, on-paper, kind run really that good for Liverpool?

The Numbers

Since Jürgen Klopp joined Liverpool in October 2015, I’ve looked at their record in the league against two sets of teams.

Subjectively, I’ve separated five teams (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man United and Tottenham), who I will call ‘The Elite’, from ‘The Rest’ – these elite teams are teams I would expect to attack, or at least go toe-to-toe, with Liverpool. And this is where the statistics prove interesting reading.

I will focus on attacking statistics, as this is where we are most interested in the Reds:

Average goals scored vs The Elite: 2 per game
Average goals scored vs The Rest: 1.83 per game

Over 2.5 goals scored vs The Elite: 5 times in 11 games
Over 2.5 goals scored vs The Rest: 5 times in 24 games

Blanks vs The Elite: 2 times in 11 games (18%)
Blanks vs The Rest: 5 times in 24 games (21%)

Whilst those numbers may not be massively in favour of Liverpool vs The Elite, it is worth remembering you would expect Liverpool to do best vs The Rest – so when you consider the swing the other way, it is rather substantial.

The History

Prior to last season’s Gameweek 14, Liverpool featured in Frisking the Fixtures ahead of a similar kind run to the one they face now:

SWA/new/WBA/wat/LEI/sun/WHM

This run ended with only three victories – all by 1-0 scorelines – and defeats to Newcastle, Watford and West Ham – all without Liverpool scoring.

Conclusion

As with Eden Hazard, this is not an article to write off their prospects completely. However, it is clear that Liverpool work best when they can overwhelm a possession-based team with a high-tempo, high-energy, pressing game. Their attacking mentality works best when they are attacked.

Again, similarly to Hazard, Klopp and his team have shown great promise in this new season, albeit against the elite teams they prospered against last season. It may be that they can now use their kind run to develop a ruthless streak against weaker opposition but, considering their performance away to Burnley, where they lost 2-0, Fantasy managers should be a little cautious.

Could it be that the key see of fixtures is actually from Gameweek 23 (CHE/hul/TOT/lei/ARS/BUR/mci/EVE)? It’s a long way off, and a little tongue in cheek, but the history might suggest it is then that we will profit most from Liverpool midfielders.

93 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Damn, you could have posted this before I got Firmino in 😉

    The League cup clash hopefully indicates you are wrong, but after your Hazard analysis its tough to bet against your crystal ball gazing skills.

    1. THE REAL RON ⚽
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      😛

      As with Hazard, I'll probably ignore my own advice! 😳 I'll still be getting someone, but just maybe not a double-up.. That's all I'd advice. Can't beat Bobby F!

  2. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Yep, they tend to struggle against teams who sit a bit deeper. Be interesting to see if it could be overturned or not. Burnley wasn't a good sign, and Hull will give a good indication of whether they've turned a corner.

    1. THE REAL RON ⚽
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Let's hope they have. Mané could be a crucial factor, but his history makes him another big-game player.

      If JK can get these next 11 games right though, they could be top by Christmas. 😉

      #ouryear

      1. alexmj
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        His hat trick against a poor Villa team......

        1. THE REAL RON ⚽
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Kolo Toure scored against that Villa team last season.

  3. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I think they may be a different beast at home now. Leicester are not a possession-based side. A return to the Rodgers days of smashing the little guys could be upon us.

  4. Emp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What about Leicester though?, Leicester are hardly a team that come out and attack...it could be that leicseter defence has ust been woeful this season without kante though...

  5. jpb333
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    a or b to finally put this wc to rest?

    a. pickford / jaku
    coleman walker holebas evans amat

    b. foster / jaku
    baines lovren holebas evans amat

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

      1. jpb333
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        thanks. that was my first choice too

  6. DGW blindness is for Kinnea…
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    You make a good point but Liverpool look a different attacking beat this season. I think they'll finally be able to put away the lesser teams, especially with so much competition up front.
    How do you think they'll do defensively?

    1. Sourabh
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      they are so much into pressing opponents that their shots conceded is one of the best atm.

    2. THE REAL RON ⚽
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Yes, I'd agree. They could just as easily go out and win 3/4-0. A lot depends on the first goal.

      The stats look good, but they're hard to trust with the history. JK isn't fussed about CS and they've got mistakes in them.

      1. Clump
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        So true about the first goal. It's when teams come at us we're at our most dangerous.

  7. _Gunner
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Which is better?

    A- Walker + Coutinho

    B- Firmino + Vertonghen

    1. Mike__mma
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B. Tough

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    3. Big Mac 24
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      What happened to this free scoring Vertonghan that signed fir Spurs? First season hits 5 +3 as promised, 2 assists in two years since then!

    4. Koolswan
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  8. Back on the horse
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Lovren could still be a good shout if you are predicting 1-0s

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I've drafted him in

  9. ANON.
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone know if Lukaku is back in training?

    1. Brap.
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      "Manager Koeman will offer a detailed team news update at his press conference on Thursday afternoon"

      1. Mike__mma
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Obviously

  10. Respect My Authoritah
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Interesting. I think it'll be a little different this season, as evidenced by the game v Leicester. Lallana in CM and Mane have added a lot more threat to teams that sit back

  11. Wimmer winner chicken dinne…
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Very interesting article, not the one I wanted to hear, but certainly makes me throw caution to any rogue captain decisions I might have made (who am i kidding it's going on Aguero). I was guilty of a captains armband when you had warned me against it last time, so won't make that same mistake twice - keep up these great articles!

  12. Big Red Dog
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Bet Hull win 0-1

    1. Big Red Dog
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Great article!

    2. LE GOD(C)-AMERICAN DYCHO-(1…
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Noooo!! Surely not!!

    3. THE REAL RON ⚽
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      😀

  13. LE GOD(C)-AMERICAN DYCHO-(1…
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I agree with most here.. Liverpool look a different team this season and Mane has made a big difference to the Liverpool attack.

    Looking forward to some big points from Mane and Firmino over the next few. Own both!!

    1. THE REAL RON ⚽
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Could be a treat!

  14. Sourabh
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    This may be because Liverpool doesn't like crosses and most of their goals are linked with through balls and short passes while attacking through the middle of the pitch. This system won't work if opposition is defending with 10 men, but that means defending whole 90 mins against pool.

  15. Phil Dagger ⭐
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    interesting but thats not all

    why forget Liverpool do not have European football this season??? less fixtures more training

    why forget they have scored most goals in 2016 of any pl side??

    why forget Liverpool Hv actually signed a player in mane that can stretch defences and gives them pace which was not in side last season (he was not available for burnley remember)

    plus sturridge and origi fit

    1. domadilla
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      All good points. I think the article is still valid - it tempers enthusiasm for overloading on Liv players. I was going to double up in midfield but it's probably not worth the risk until they start smashing smaller teams.. Let's wait and see!

    2. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1 or 2 is enough IMO
      firmino the standout

    3. Big Mac 24
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Excellent counter-argument to a good article.

  16. Eze Really?
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I am obviously no fan of Pool but they are a totally different proposition to last year. The Burnley game would bear you out but to be honest Pool were bloody unlucky. They do play a narrow pressing game that suits against good sides but they also have class in their side. On top of this there are the likes of can and Gruj still to come in. Matip getting better. I think they need a left back and to bring in the two Germans.

  17. timPgoodwin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    WC RMT if you would be so kind ...

    Pickford - Juka
    Stones - Baines - Lovren - Holebas - Lenihan
    De Bruyne - Sanchez - Firmino - Bolasie - Snodgrass
    Deeney - Rashford - Aguero

    0.1 ITB and feeling good about this team, few differentials, most bases covered yet still got the 3 heavy hitting forwards in that I wanted.

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      With that side when will you play Snodders?

      1. timPgoodwin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        GW8 when Everton have Man City and Hull have Bournemouth, GW 11 when Everton play Chelsea and Hull have S'hampton at home. Possibly in place of Rashford if his minutes become diminished and I want to keep my FT, can play him in place of any MID or FWD who get's injured ...

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Decent team. Poor GK's!... Not sure on Stones long term either. Are 2 of your 3 heavy hitting forwards deeney and rashford??

      1. timPgoodwin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I was referring to KdB, Sanchez and Aguero rather than forwards. Sick of rotating GK's and picking the wrong one and picking a GK for a CS is a lottery so not doing it anymore. Rather save the 0.4. Stones is in purely because he plays for MCFC and Kompany is out, can swap him out for pretty much any other defende (5.0 or less)

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Just a chance both GKs might loose their place going forward.

          Fair play though mate... go for it, you seem happy with it 🙂

  18. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Firm, Cout & Clyne triple up and I'm buzzing with the decision - Let it rain goals plzzzz

    1. KeepCalm
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I like the idea of Firm Cout combo but LIV defence is a no-go

  19. Puyol Pants Up
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Hazard + Ibra -----> Firmino + Aguero for free worth doing?

    If so, wait till after pressers or do now?

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Absolutely

    2. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      what will pressers tell you about these lol?

    3. Brap.
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      None are likely to change in price so wait?

      (Hazard already lost 0.3 this week, Ibra & Firmino not yet close to price change, Aguero locked at 13.0)

  20. Sjaugen
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    The Burnley game was an eyeopener; all that possession and underlying stats which didn't lead anywhere.
    Should almost exclude that game when looking at Pool mid stats

  21. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Rashford or Deeney?

    1. Mick J
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Rashford will probably start this weekend, but will likely be in and out of the top regardless of how he is performing. Zlatan will play more or less all the games in the league. Rooney will play everything even if he’d fail to complete a single pass – in fact, after retiring at the age of around 45 as a captain for League Two United, he would probably become United manager for the rest of his life. That means Rashford is competing with Martial, Mata, Mkhitaryan, Lingard and, perheps to a lesser extent, Young and Depay for the last two spots.

      1. Mick J
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        * in and out of the team regardless ...

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          So deeney?

          1. Mick J
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            If Rashford nails down a spot, Rooney gets injured and United find some form, I think he (Rashford) will be the most valuable player in the game.

            Deeney seems safer. Watford has an excellent run of fixtures, and Deeney will probably be among the goals.

  22. Forjaz
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Cech / Jaku

    Vertonghen Williams Holebas Francis Amat

    Coutinho Firminho Pereyra Walcott (4.5)

    Lukaku Aguero Costa

    Its not good, right?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Midfield is terrible. Why double liverpool and pereyra, walcott?? Downgrade Cech to a bonus points based keeper like Forster or Heaton. You could also loose Costa with his fixtures and improve the midfield that way. Hope that helps

      1. Forjaz
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        yeah, i know. I have to make something out of this. I know its terrible.

        1. Forjaz
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Coutinho Pereyra Antonio Sanchez 4.5

          Lukaku Aguero Rashford.

          Better?

        2. Brap.
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Midfield is renegade and you're taking risks…good on you, not everyone has to be a grinder.

          That said, bomb Cech out of there like GJAGJAGJAGJA said

          1. Pards Against Humanity
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            I don't see a problem with the midfield if i'm honest.

            Antonio Sanchez all great picks

            Pereyra has had returns in every game he's played so far, and has a dream run coming up.

            Coutinho is perhaps the only risk, as he's not the most consistent.

            1. Brap.
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              He has

              Coutinho Firminho Pereyra Walcott (4.5)

              1. Brap.
                • 7 Years
                7 years, 7 months ago

                Or "She has" of course!

            2. RAFA THE GAFFA
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Walcott will be dropped soon, too much competition. Firmino > Courtinho for me and for the small price diff. Capoue would be the WAT midfielder of choice for me, but I guess Pereyra could be a decent differential

              1. Forjaz
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 7 months ago

                Forgot to say. Im on a WC.

                ...and it's "He". Sorry mate, no boobs here.

  23. Exdeo
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    great article, I hope you are right, because at the moment I don't have any pool coverage:))) Also the fact that anyone can score puts me away at the moment, the game against Chelsea just proved it. In City it is clear de Bruyne and Aguero will be top scorers with possibly Sterling close to, or even between them. With pool it's a mistery.

  24. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Rashford or Deeney people??

    1. Big Mac 24
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Rashford if you don't have Zlaztan, Deeney if you do.

  25. Dananz
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I'm so fed up with this game that I've decided to just back 2 teams on defence, and 2 teams on attack, and set and forget it. So I've loaded up on a 5-4-1 with 3 defenders each from Man U and Chelsea, and a "front 5" of Firmino, De Bruyne, Sterling, Coutinho and Aguero. 2016-2017 done, an average rank and free time back on the cards.

    (That said, if Sanchez and Walcott slaughter Chelsea this weekend and De Bruyne blanks, I will do a slight revision and bring them both in and change to a 4-5-1. Actually 3 attacks and 2 defences seems to make a bit more sense...)

    Anyway, go Liverpool! And go City! And go Man U and Chelsea! (but not Hazard, or Ibra, or Costa, or Rashford, or ....) And maybe go Arsenal....

    1. Brap.
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Yeah, but you'll love it if you beat us, love it!

  26. alexmj
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Also last season they had Europa League

  27. broughtont
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Rate my team

    WC inplay

    Mandanda (pickford)
    Holebas Dann Jagielka (Galloway and Love)
    KDB Son Antonio Capoue (Puncheon )
    Aguero Rashford Lukaku

    3.6 ITB
    Transferring Son for sanchez in next gameweek

  28. David Slade
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Doubling up on Firmino and Mane 🙂

  29. King Henry XIV
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    hi guys,

    considering i've taken a -4 hit to get aguero in this week, am i ridiculous in thinking of taking out ozil for firmino (total -8) ? Scared about not having livo mids, but then i obviously sacrifice arsenal mids for the mean time

    1. Big Mac 24
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I'm thinking the same with swapping alexis out for him or Mane. Yes, Cheslea couldn't keep pool out at home, but I think away, with an Italian manager againstg a not quite as dangerous as Pool looking Arsenal and their poor scoring record v chelsea, i think it'll come out even at worse!

      1. King Henry XIV
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Exactly my thoughts. The potential to miss out on a firmino/mane haul this weekend is far greater than an ozil/Sanchez haul makes me think a hit is worth it

        1. Big Mac 24
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          I'm 95% certain of doing it - i'm 18 points ahead for the monthly 50 quid prize - our teams are very similar, and I know he's made a -8 so I can afford it too by getting in Mane, Firminho, Aguero for Haz, Tekkers and Alexis.

  30. El-Kloppico
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    By Sunday, we will know if the analysis is correct.
    I can't see Liverpool put the back pedal this year, with no European game, and having a whole week to analyse the opponent.
    Last year Klopp said he can't see time to train according to opponents. This year is another history imo.

    That says, I am not doubling up before the ManUtd match too.