Our first members article of the week arrives this afternoon as we take our usual delve into the previous Gameweek’s data.
We start by assessing Olivier Giroud’s impact on the goal threat of Alexis Sanchez, at a time where Chelsea’s midfield big-hitter is failing to impress. Elsewhere, Liverpool’s resurgent Brazilian, Sergio Aguero’s recent barren streak and West Ham’s new-found source of creativity all come under analysis ahead of Gameweek 23.
is that a nickname of yours?
😮 😆
Not since he went on holiday to warmer climates a few years ago
Lake Windermere Monster
Not seen it on my one visit to Loch Ness. Must admit though, the lake does have a very eerie presence about it.
Lake?
But agreed, very odd feeling surrounds the loch.....
Great top post
play Phillips or brunt?
cheers
Brunt
Boro strong at home (last week aside, was it a blip?).
I'd go for Brunt, good attacking returns and don't expect a goal-fest at Boro.
Stones
already taken a hit for Charlie adam, if samba joins palace hes going straight in too
With Snodgrass and Livermore gone and 20m in the bank, wonder if Hull will make a surprise acquisition?
I like their new manager got the team the team to play well against Chelsea without the two important players. If he can make a good Jelavic or Cisse like January purchase we could end up with an FPL bargain.
Or perhaps one of Niasse or Markovic will step up.
That has to be it, unless they are already planning life without Premier League funds
There's still time for survival. I expect Leicester and Boro to drop points. Swansea and Hull to do well now.
They get 2 years of parachute payments so doubt it's preparing for life outside of the PL, they probably just don't want to give Snodgrass a better contract so are cashing in.
Middlesborough have matched Burnley's £10m offer for Snodgrass. West Ham and potentially Watford likely to follow.
interesting
This is more like it, I would want Snodgrass to go to one of those teams.
One to watch ... hopefully not to one of the bigger clubs to just warm the bench
Boro's usual tactic of throw money about in search of results. But If Snodgrass is after the highest wage Boro can probably win that battle.
Hull would rather he went to Burnley as they're not seen as direct relegation opponents.
Boro would be the shortest distance to move, unless he wants to get away from the North East.
play nyom or de roon?
Nyom.
No room for De Roon....
Just noticed my post saying that TV/AV doesn't matter got a hot topic... http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/01/24/this-much-we-know-gameweek-22-4/?hc_page=2#hc_comment_14930548. Sadly I got dragged away so wasn't able to do many replies....so i'll finish the post here.
As always i'm aware of what team we could put together with the original 100.0 mill budget....and even what team we could put together using only players that have all fallen in price. So right now...and looking at a bit of form/fixtures.
DDG Jaku
Otamendi Toby Monreal Yoshida Holgate
Tadic Firmino Barkley Antonio Pedro
Giroud Aguero Carroll
That lot will set you back only 97.7 mill and it has pts in it. I know it's short of Spurs attack but I've deliberately chosen falling players so Aguero could easily become Kane etc...or any other number of combinations you fancy.
Just thought would round the post off nicely and demonstrate that TV/SV really doesn't matter as much as we think it does. Give it a go.
There's a reason the best players are the highest price. It's a lot easier to score highly with a high TV than it is to do with a low one.
I'm not sure that's true. The game changes all the time so sometimes players you couldn't give away become top picks and vice versa. Hazard being a good case in point....and Aguero...
....and Ibra....and Alli...and Baines...It's a long list.
They are all reasonably pricey. To fit more of them into your team you need a high TV. As someone who's team value is only 101.5m I know how hard it is to sustain a reasonably good rank. I'd really like to have an extra 2m more to improve different parts of my team.
Well that team above you could do Aguero > Kane and Pedro > Alli and still be within the 100 mill budget (99.9)That's a tidy team with no increase in TV from GW1.
Given unlimited money though my team would likely have no attacker below £7m and no defender below £5m. A higher team value would help me get close to this optimal team.
But what we're always in danger of doing (as per the original post) is chasing the value of a player based on how he performed last year.
What we should really be seeking is next years 9.0mill mid for a 7.0mill price tag....
At the end of the day they're all just players kicking a ball....
It's not the case this season. The best in all areas are the most expesnive ones, they're performing as predicted, Sanchez and Hazard are top mids, the most expensive GK has brought the most points so far, expensive strikers are doing well and so are the defenders. I'd agree TV was pretty unimportant last season, but definitely not in this one.
That is a very nice team for the price. A few punts but still interesting.
Is it just this year, players outperforming their price or something else?
No. It happens every year.
Make yourself a team each week within the 100 mill budget and then ask why does TV matter as much as we think it does. It's amazing how often you can get good scores for the GW against the avg....and that team above is only using players that have fallen in price.
Interesting theory.
I'd still back the following team to outscore that lineup (or one similar in make up) by a fair bit over 15+ game wins though. This is a roughly 105m team.
Heaton Pickford
Alonso Baines Brunt Daniels Amat
Sanchez Alli Eriksen Phillips Carroll
Ibra Lukaku Defoe
A better TV feels like it allows for more room for error, and gives you the option of selecting at least 4 to 5 big hitters who have proven records in the game, to deliver consistent points.
The team you've compiled feels like it could have 2 or 3 very good game weeks if most of them are in form at the time you've selected them, but I wouldn't have the confidence to go with the bulk of that team for any longer than 5 game weeks or so.
*15+ game weeks
No Ibra, Costa, Kane or Lukaku
No Sanchez, Hazard, Dier or Eriksen
No Alonso, Rose, Walker, Baines, Coleman or Brunt
No Heaton.
And a severe shortage of good captaincy candidates.
These players have all increased in price for a reason.
Sorry, I'm not impressed.
But you could make a far stronger case if you removed the condition of only choosing falling players.
*Alli, not Dier
One simple question....
Dier?
😆
You spotted it.
At the end of the day, a high TV is an enabler, but not the ultimate goal. It allows you the option of a wider selection of players, especially players in form that those with a low TV just wouldn't be able to afford.
I know that I personally would prefer the choice of a Sanchez over an Antonio, for instance, if they were both in red hot form. For the simple reasons of higher ceilings, ability to maintain that form consistently, and a genuine captaincy candidate every week during this period.
A lower value team may bring you points in bursts, but you're going to need plenty of hits every few weeks just to update drastically when those players inevitably dip in form.
Many ways of playing this game though, that's what makes it so interesting.
A high TV does not guarantee success, and a low TV makes life very difficult, but a medium TV can often outperform a high one.
Sir Edo Nygren is currently 294th overall and 4th in our Hall of Fame with a medium TV of only 103.0.
He avoids early transfers and takes very few hits. As a consequence he has a lower TV than many of us - but more points.
I've noticed in some previous seasons that, while many here were boasting about TVs of 110m or more, many of the players in the top ten had TVs of only about 105m.
Great example! 😉
Of course, a high team value is not bad at all, but if you play the game like me, which means waiting until Fri/Sat with transfers, you often miss out on price rises. Instead, I get more secure starting eleven and bench, which I beleve gives more points in the long run!
The higher your TV the more options you have when choosing players and the more flexibility you have in bringing in players you want without having to take hits on enablers.
This seems to me to be self-evident so I have to disagree with your hypothesis. TV/SV is extremely important in FPL. As the old boxing adage goes, "A good big 'un will always beat a good little 'un".
Every rational manager would prefer high TV/SV over low as it increases the pool of options.
The real question is how important such advantage is vs. disadvantages such as:
- rash transfers to beat a deadline
- hits to remove and add players
- following bandwagons to gain Tv
There is a +/- trade-off implying that those with low TV AND high TV will have poor OR. The best OR will be in the middle (this season I would guess 102-105 TV). Last season with Mahrez and Alli the top OR could be expected to have lower TV as the negative effects were lower.
Fair point about me only using players who have fallen in TV....so here's a squad bang on the money without just fallers...100mill...
Randolph Jaku
Rose Coleman Cahill Brunt Yoshida
Zaha Alli Antonio Barkley Firmino
Costa Carroll Kane.
Captain options and no duffers in sight, plus a heavy defence...(I'm sure I could get Sanchez in there if I tried as well)
That squad will do perfectly ok with no increase in TV from GW1 at all.
It's an odd game this FPL lark because you can look at teams with a high TV at this time of year and wonder where the money actually is (I did a similar post last year).
That's a big improvement on your fallers squad, but with another 5m you could have Sanchez instead of Antonio, and I would currently consider Sanchez to be almost essential.
To fit Sanchez in with only a 100m budget you would need to downgrade Kane to Gray, or to downgrade a number of other players.
I think it's worth differentiating between chasing high TV and merely benefiting from it. Guess what? The players that score big usually go up in price, meaning a high team value is more often a product of a high scoring team than a cause of it.... At least for the first half of the season. I'm not going to do the heavy lifting of statistical analysis, but I would venture to guess that high score over the course of the season and high TV are positively correlated.
Yes, the are counter examples to this, but generally speaking, this is a game of trying to predict which players are going to score points. If you get it right, then other people buy those players and their price rises. If you get it wrong then people sell and their price generally falls. There are inefficiencies in this market like any other, and as many have pointed out, value to be found, but it seems perfectly logical to me that high TV and high scoring go hand in hand, it's just that many confuse the cause and effect here.
More than half of the team isn't even guaranteed a start or injury prone or both. Aguero the only heavy hitter (if he can still be considered that this season). No captain choices at all. Good luck with that team. It will get you a nice rank of 1.5m. No thanks. That team is proof TV matters.
I am sure that budget can do better than that tbh. City assets are expensive and not producing for example. Can easily downgrade both, get Kane or Ibra and upgrade defense.
All these posts about TV, you're starting to sound obsessed
Funny, choosing 15 players within 100 millions budget? You sound like you can use wildcard every week. FPL let you make only 1 free transfer. If you are about to sell 4.5 millions player and 0 million in your bank, you can not even buy a 6.5 millions player.
Also players are facing different teams and Sanchez may score 23 points against Westham but he is unlikely to score the same point against Chelsea away. You have to make transfers and whenever you make it, more money will give you more options.
But finally, making the good choice is more important and transferring in an expensive player will not promise us a big return.
But selecting 15 players without considering the effects of transfers is quite funny.
Play
a) Daniels
b) Phillips
c) play both bench Coutinho
?
Close between Daniels and Phillips. I prefer Phillips, attacking player instead horrible defense of Bou
Daniels at home to Palace- so he should assist or score.
Phillips on the road to Boro's tough defense.
Daniels!
Hard to Bench Cout
A
The rule of away goals working in League Cup semifinal?
They kick in after extra time.
Okay, thanks. Hope for a good football today.
Foster or Heaton this gameweek?
Heaton double figures
Why are all the bottom feeder clubs selling each other their best players?
Bin the winter window. And summer one to be done and dusted by GW1.
New managers...and David Moyes.
Sunderland are refusing to give Moyes funds and the Chairman is selling the club
Hull might just be conceding that they are going down or the new manager does rate him .
Yeah Sunderland have thrown in the towel and Hull aren't far behind.
Should be fined for fielding weakened sides....
🙂
I don't get why they didn't keep Snodgrass until May. They could have still got 10m+ for him and they would have had a better chance of staying up with him in the team.
Do I play Phillips (mid) or Ashley Barnes (LEI) this week chaps?
Barnes
Barnes.
Cheers both
This weeks captain options are so interesting. I think the four best options are;
1) Sanchez
2) Ibrah
3) Kane
4) Kun
Sanchez will be hot favourite along with Ibrah but something is really making me want to captain Kane. He has an exceptional away record & Sunderland are so poor. Aguero is a great differential captain and will start scoring again soon, but maybe just having him is enough and then captain him against Swansea the week after.
Sanchez has scored against Watford in all league visits he has faced them with the only blank in the Fa Cup quarter final. His stats are still through the roof and facing Kaboul is very mouth watering as a captaincy option. Throwing in the fact Watford are playing Sunday lunchtime then the Tuesday at the Emirates.
It's down to Sanchez or Kane for me. Hardest captaincy decision of season so far.
If I had Kane I would captain him. But probably going with Ibra.
I agree with AT below, Hull have tightened up recently.
I will still be hiding behind my sofa when Ibrah lines up against them though
Why not Alli who is effectively been a second striker
Alli is a great shout as well, they were just my four picks as best captains.
If I owned Alli I wouldn't captain him over Kane.
Spurs assets stand out most to me this week. Sunderland are in a bit of a mess, Hull look tighter these days and Sanchez out wide is a worry, despite the stats.
I would feel most safe with Sanchez despite playing out wide
Sunderland are a mess, I think if you nail this weeks captain it's massive as there will be quite a few different ones about
Who should I play?
- Firminho vs Chelsea
- Defoe vs Tottenham
Firm.
Defoe
Defoe vs Wimmer......hello points 😉
Wow, you really think Wimmer is going to score?
😛
Firmino
No idea...It's a guess. Maybe Defoe if Toby is out as well as Vert.
Firm
What time will team sheets be out?
after 30 minute
I think team sheets stay in the toilet .
Sorry for the toilet humour
Reported
😉
Flag off 🙂
😀
Pick one:
1. Lukaku Kane Ibra + Colemna
2. Lukaku Costa Ibra + Coleman/Walker
3. Costa Kane Ibra + Williams
All 3 with Dele and Eriksen in mid
1
Bench in order & Captain?
Unsure who to play out of Crouch / Chambers / Phillips / Pieters
Heaton (Jaku)
Baines, Brunt, Daniels (Pieters, Chambers)
Ali, Eriksen (C), Sanchez, Coutinho, Morrison
Lukaku, Ibra (Crouch)
Thanks.
You have Phillips or Morrison?
*Phillips, dumb typo.
Transfered in Antonio for Lallana earlier this week. Had a hard choice between him and go 4-4-2 with Coleman. Then I could played Lallana against Hull instead Azpilicueta home to Arsenal.
So Antonio vs Coleman this week and Antonio-Azpi vs Coleman-Lallana next week.
Pretty much talking to myself now, maybe I regret a little bit lol.
Antonio's a great pick again. Gonna be doing what Alli is doing for Kane...a second striker to Carroll...
Folks, can I get advice on what move to make this week please. Honestly anything would be of help
1FT 0.4 ITB
Foster
McCauley Bellerin Pieters
Sanchez Phillips Pedro Mirallas
Costa Kane Ibra
Subs- Jak Capoue Holebas Amat
Karius, Alexander-Arnold, Lovren, Matip, Milner, Henderson, Can, Lallana, Coutinho, Firmino, Sturridge
Mignolet, Moreno, Lucas, Origi, Klavan, Woodburn, Wijnaldum
Nathaniel Clyne is absent from tonight's squad due to a rib/abdominal injury
Finally Lallana back in midfield
Probably today's performance of LFC (Lallana,Firmino,Coutinho) will cause a twist to their Fantasy sales
Feels wrong to be benching Alonso this GW. What would you do ?
Grant (Randolph)
McAuley, Jones, Baines (Alonso) (Amat)
San(C)hez, Eriksen, Lallana, Phillips (de Roon)
Costa, Ibra, Kane
thanks 🙂
Bench McAuley
This
4 at the back with Phillips of the bench for me there.
Lallana bench
Haz and anichebe -> Kane and Tom caroll for a hit
Like it
Too early to bring back in Zaha?
Yes, Palace are a mess and he may not even play next match.
Help me bench one. Please choose
A. Baines
B. Alonso
C. Brunt
D. Philips
E. Pedro
F. Stanislas
Walker
Sanchez Alli
Costa Ibram
Phillips
Forster, Cédric, Stephens, Yoshida, Bertrand, Romeu, Davis (c), Ward-Prowse, Tadić, Redmond, Rodriguez
Their Strongest line up by the looks of it
If they somehow put on a good defensive show, I'm guessing Yoshida might just okay.
Be*
Thats 8 matches in a row yoshida has been in. Id say he's ok
The VVD injury pretty much nails him.
Not for his confirmed minutes
It's whether you trust him over Holgate to keep clean sheets.
Stephens wagon....4.0m
I can only play one. Help please:
A) Brunt
B) Phillips
C) Stanislas
B
Actually C...just checked fixtures and if Wilson benched he has pens.
Seriously flip a coin
Looking for a bit of advice 🙂
Foster/Valdes
Azpi/Walker/Daniels/McAuley/Friend
Sanchez/Eriksen/Alli/Lallana/Sanchez
Ibra/Giroud/Crouch
This is me. I feel my team is strong (I'm playing 3-5-2 religiously)
I feel Lallana is onl potential weak link. Would like to exercise patience but thinking of getting him out. What would you fine people advise? Stick or twist...If twist...Who for??
Cheers! 🙂
I wish i could have double sanchez!
You dan, every week if you like! 🙂
*can*
Haha Woops! Matty Phillips is the 2nd Sanchez!
Thoughts?
So which team do most people on here want to go through to the final?
I want liverpool
I have Lovren and Sanchez. S'ton winning would make FPL more tricky in GW26.
Yep ibra & sanchez owner (no liverpool). I know utd not through yet but look the most likely, so a southampton win means getting rid of a big hitter
I'd keep Sanchez and lose Ibra tbh.
worked the last time the Liverpool fans did it
Are Liverpool likely to play a full strength team?
To qualify in 90 mins against Southampton without Fonte and VVD looks tempting!
11/8 on bet365 for anyone wondering.
Line up posted above!
7 years, 3 months agoAnyone here seen the Loch Ness Monster?