I hate this time of the season.
As someone who relies so much on data to guide decisions, these early Gameweeks feel disorientating. Ironically, at a time when the “eye test” is all we can really turn to, I feel almost blinded.
We can scrutinise matches and players, but we often have to rely on our own judgment of form and confidence, without any additional information to back things up.
That means more mistakes are made, and I’m guilty of several already.
For starters, I was totally convinced that Bournemouth would fly out the blocks.
I saw the acquisition of Asmir Begovic, Nathan Ake and Jermain Defoe as positive building blocks. Additions that would see Eddie Howe’s men galvanised and injected with early confidence.
Neither has happened. In fact, the new faces appear to have disrupted the status quo; the Cherries have lost their shine from last season and, like me, Howe seems a bit lost to explain it.
I was also convinced that West Brom would struggle.
Cursed by pre-season injuries, abject summer performances and having unexpectedly lost their captain, I was convinced they’d struggle from the off.
Reluctantly I opted for Ben Foster in goal but, despite an awareness of their set-piece threat, I completely ignored his back four.
Expecting a day one defeat to Bournemouth, I went for Charlie Daniels, not Craig Dawson. For Ryan Fraser, not Matt Phillips.
Now, just two fixtures in, I’d happily reverse that.
As a result, last night’s transfer has already taken the first step.
Daniels has left the dressing room to be replaced by West Brom’s Egyptian giant. Sky high and upwardly mobile, while I’d prefer Dawson’s longevity, I felt I had to follow the masses.
Buffed twice by huge early season investment, Ahmed Hegazi’s price has been hiked for a third time overnight. If he delivers more points against Stoke, he could go on climbing and perhaps fetch me some profit.
Uncomfortable with following the herd, I even attempted to turn to statistics in a bid to talk myself out of it, but even the data backed the Hegazi option.
Factor in the extra 0.3 for a rainy day and the evidence was overwhelming – I was forced to put my principles to one side.
I’ve learned that sometimes, you have to resist being different and seek out the “clever” option.
The time for being clever was in Gameweek 1 and, at that point, I trusted my instincts. Look where that got me.
Sometimes you just have to follow the crowd, and one of those sometimes is now.
For Gameweek 3, I’m a maverick in sheep’s clothing.
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