This Much We Know – Gameweek 7

Fantasy budgets are squeezed with premium defences on top and the inevitable names featuring in the Golden Boot race, but some genuine value options may just have emerged in the middle of the park. Here are my lessons learned from Gameweek 7.

Kane’s a September baby

Based on a pure comparison of Harry Kane’s underlying statistics from his first three league matches with his most recent three, you’d almost be forgiven for contemplating jettisoning the Spurs striker.

Twenty-four goal attempts have dwindled to a “meagre” 16, with only half as many shots in the box, although he has maintained his average of one big chance per game in each set of fixtures.

Of course, September Kane has outscored August Kane 11-0 in all competitions for Spurs and nobody could care less about lesser statistics when the bottom line is an in-form striker motoring towards his fourth consecutive 20-plus goal season.

Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Morata and, lest we forget, Roberto Firmino have all been dubbed “near essential” by sagacious sections of the Fantasy community at various points, including myself, but Kane undoubtedly ticks the form and fixtures boxes so comprehensively that even non-captaining owners find themselves needing a Wembley-sized sofa whenever Kane plays.

Away from home at least…

But our big-money striker plan is being torn up

Right up until last Thursday night, it seemed inevitable that we would have to juggle our squads to accommodate three big strikers at a cost of over a third of our Fantasy funds.

Three days later and we are deprived of both Aguero and Morata – in the short term at least – while Alexandre Lacazette has yet to record attacking points in back to back games.

Even Romelu Lukaku’s seven goals in seven matches are being regarded with scepticism in the face of a more challenging run of fixtures which could see Jose Mourinho’s tether his horses.

Ironically, were Aguero and Morata both to miss two matches, that would point to a neat short-term solution in Gabriel Jesus, whose curtailed minutes culminated in his spectator’s role in the Crystal Palace riot.

After all, Manchester City are averaging nearly four goals a match at home and it’s questionable whether their next pair of visitors, Stoke City and Burnley, can reduce that average significantly.

In the longer term, though, it will be fascinating to see whether we can resist the charms of three in-form heavy-hitting strikers, or whether we are can grit our teeth, steady the knees and remember that the true “value” (in terms of points per million) can still be found in midfield and, particularly, in defence.

Once, that is,  you have a decent captaincy option (spelt K-a-n-e).

So do try to keep it clean

Last week I noted that if current scoring trends continued, as many as eight players could exceed 20 goals this season, compared to just three last year.

This week, it is worth balancing that statistic with reference to the possible record-breaking defences.

Given the form of the top strikers, it may come as a surprise to learn that there have been almost twice as many clean sheets so far (55) compared to this stage last season (30).

It is, however, the usual suspects who feature highest on that list, with Huddersfield’s 4-0 defeat to Spurs warning us of their possible regression.

Manchester United’s rearguard has only been breached in one league match this season, while their City rivals have also only conceded two goals in seven games.

Arsenal were fortunate that their net only bulged four times against Liverpool in Gameweek 3, but have not conceded since.

Sead Kosalinac was overshadowed by his defensive team-mates Hector Bellerin and Nacho Monreal this week – having had both a potential assist and a header of his own cleared off the line – but a seven-point average score since Anfield provides more than a little comfort for his growing ownership.

Davies is peerless

The Manchester sides and Arsenal each provide defensive options in the sub-6.0 price bracket, but the current defensive king is found at the Gunners’ north London rivals, Spurs, in the form of Ben Davies.

The pain I (and 300,000 other FPL managers) felt becoming a new manager of Davies, just in time for his benching in Gameweek 5, has been replaced by the euphoria of owning the highest-scoring asset of Gameweek 7 (along with Marouane Fellani) – a fairly novel emotion so far this season for me, it must be said.

A quick look at the statistics shows that Davies’ success was no fluke.

Joint top for shots on target over the season (four) with Fantasy darling Marcos Alonso, and having created more chances (16) than any other player – the same tally as team-mate Christian Eriksen – Davies is surely in the driving seat to retain his starting position despite the possible return of Danny Rose in the near future.

Certainly, the Welshman’s owners will hope that Danny Rose forgets all about the World Cup and that Mauricio Pochettino doesn’t follow Mourinho’s unexpected lead of giving Eric Bailly a breather in the “gimme” games.

Some 18% of the FPL world suffered the pain of the Portuguese’s whims when the Ivorian centre-back was surprisingly rested against Palace, with week-long doubt Phil Jones completing the 90 minutes on his way to an easy six points.

Pep still has us worried. This is no time to start playing with our heads, Jose.

There’s some consistency from the budget midfielders

Recommending to you premium defenders and top-dollar attackers is, naturally, rather easy if only we had the benefit of operating with an unlimited budget.

True, there is merit in an 8.0 goalkeeper double act, but that 0.5m saving really doesn’t stretch as far as we would like.

Instead, if we’re searching for a couple of sub-6.5 players, the value seems very much to lie in midfield at the moment, with Abdoulaye Doucouré (5.3), Richarlison (6.1) and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (5.6) all showing their potential, to a greater or lesser extent, in Gameweek 7.

In particular, Richarlison and Choupo-Moting (both with 18), trail only Mohamed Salah (21) for midfielder shots in the box and, as anyone who owns Newcastle striker Joselu knows, eventually one of those efforts is bound to go in – even if you need Joel Matip’s telescopic leg to help.

Then again there’s also that big Belgian chap, Fellaini, to consider. Or is even 4.9 too much to pay for Mourinho’s new favourite?