Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 30 – The Weak

Following on from our look at the teams with the most favourable upcoming schedules yesterday, we now turn our attention to those which are perhaps best avoided over the coming period. Unsurprisingly, those with a blank Gameweek 30 populate our thoughts as Fantasy managers await for notice of rescheduled fixtures caused by this weekend’s cup postponements.

Everton

The Toffees undoubtedly face a tricky run in the short-term, with the Gameweek 30 blank followed by testing clashes against Arsenal and Man United. From an attacking perspective, those two sides have shown some vulnerability of late, though, conceding eight and five goals respectively, while they’ve also allowed nine and eight big chances respectively over the same period. Watford have remained stingy at the back of late, however, conceding just three goals in their last four, so the likes of Romelu Lukaku (8.8) and Ross Barkley (7.2) don’t look to have much upside over the next few weeks. Roberto Martinez’s men could have a double if their trip to Anfield is scheduled for Gameweek 34, along with the home fixture against Southampton. While those aren’t the most favourable of match-ups, the nature of the double Gameweek (DGW) means owning at least one Everton attacker seems a likely plan. Everton then travel to Crystal Palace in Gameweek 35, which looks a decent fixture given the Eagles have conceded nine goals in their last four matches, and allowed 10 big chances in the process, the second highest number in the league behind Aston Villa.

The outlook is similar from a defensive viewpoint, with returns appearing unlikely in the next two matches against Arsenal and Man United. The Gunners have scored exactly two goals in their last three away matches, while United have netted seven times in their last three encounters at Old Trafford. The Watford fixture does appear pretty kind, though, having only scored four goals in nine, and while clean sheets may be tougher to register against Southampton and possibly Liverpool in Gameweek 34, we may see Everton defenders such as Seamus Coleman (5.8) and Ramiro Funes Mori (5.5) begin to come onto our radars come Gameweek 33, while Joel Robles (4.3) could act as a handy enabler should he remain the first-choice goalkeeper, having played the last five league matches.

West Ham

Dimitri Payet (8.3) punished the 31,000+ Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bosses who transferred him out last week with a 13-point haul in the 3-2 win over Everton, but with a blank this weekend followed by just one favourable clash, at home to Crystal Palace, over the next five Gameweeks, his place in our 15-man rosters certainly looks open to debate. Chelsea and Leicester have both conceded just four goals in as many matches, and have been among the stronger defences in the Premier League over the last few months. As already touched upon, Arsenal’s defensive statistics haven’t been very impressive of late, but that still looks a fixture unlikely to yield too many goals for Slaven Bilic’s side. As is the case with many of the sides that face a blank this weekend, the likelihood is that many will face a DGW34, which in West Ham’s case would include the home fixture against Watford. Although the Hammers would then face a blank in Gameweek 35, given Payet’s exploits so far this season, scoring eight goals and providing eight assists, the Frenchman would surely be on many Fantasy managers’ wishlists once again. Michail Antonio, at just 5.4, is also worth considering, bearing in mind that he’s averaged 5.5 points per appearance since arriving at Upton Park.

Given Palace have netted in their last seven matches, it’s probably fair to say that fixture is not particularly friendly for the prospects of the West Ham defence, in addition to tough clashes against Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester. In fact, those four opponents all feature among the top seven sides for shots from inside the box over the last four matches, so the chances of registering significant defensive returns appear pretty slim. Watford’s stuttering attack could make the possible double in Gameweek 34 hold some appeal for those looking to invest in a Hammers defender, but in truth the benefits of owning Aaron Cresswell (5.7) or any member of the Hammers backline look extremely limited, given the upcoming fixture list.

Crystal Palace

As was the case with West Ham, Palace also have to face two of the most dangerous attacks in the league in the form of Leicester and Arsenal. The Eagles do travel to Upton Park in Gameweek 32, but while the Hammers last two home matches have seen them register slender 1-0 victories, it remains a difficult looking away fixture for the south London club. Relief could be provided by the visit of Norwich to Selhurst Park a week later, though, with the Canaries only scoring three times in their last four matches, creating just four big chances in the process. Palace’s possible DGW34 could see a trip to Old Trafford thrown in alongside a trip to the Emirates though, so we can probably expect the ownership of Scott Dann (5.8) to fall from 21% in FPL over the next few weeks, particularly given the Eagles have conceded 23 goals in their last 10 matches.

There has been no stand-out Fantasy asset among the Palace attack until Yannick Bolasie’s return to full fitness, but with the blank followed by difficult match-ups against Leicester and West Ham, the winger appears unlikely to be worth taking a punt on. Both teams have only shipped four goals in as many matches, though the Foxes have conceded 38 shots from inside the box over the same period – the fourth most among all 20 clubs. The Norwich fixture again stands out as the most favourable over the next six Gameweeks, but with the possible double including matches at both Arsenal and Man United, Palace assets may be something of an afterthought.

Be Wary Of…

Man United
The schedule for Louis van Gaal’s side over the next four Gameweeks (blank, mci, EVE, tot) looks hugely testing at both ends of the pitch. Clean sheets look unlikely up against the likes of Sergio Aguero, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, while United’s major attacking threat, Anthony Martial (7.6), may well struggle to get much joy from those fixtures.

The prospects of United players will probably hinge on whether their home match against Crystal Palace is rearranged for Gameweek 34, creating a very favourable DGW (AVL, CPL). That would certainly bring Martial and many of his team-mates firmly back into our thoughts, despite the subsequent blank in Gameweek 35.

Watford
Odion Ighalo has seen his price drop from 6.4 in FPL to 5.9 having failed to score in his last six, and while the Hornets upcoming fixtures (STO, ars, EVE) aren’t totally without hope, the Nigerian is clearly not one who currently warrants a place in our three-man frontlines. Should their trip to West Ham be rearranged for Gameweek 34, though, he could possibly return to our radars, with a visit to West Brom the current Gameweek 34 match-up, followed by a favourable trip to Norwich.

Quique Sanchez Flores’ side still aren’t conceding too many goals, but in truth it looks unlikely Watford defenders will be of much use in the short-term. Again, the likes of Nathan Ake (4.4) may perhaps be decent enablers should that double in Gameweek 34 come to fruition, but otherwise it looks best if we look elsewhere for our budget options.

West Brom
The Baggies now face a blank this weekend following Arsenal’s 4-0 win against Hull in the FA Cup on Tuesday night, with the trip to the Emirates now perhaps being moved to Gameweek 34, when they currently host Watford. Tony Pulis’ side already face difficult away fixtures to Man City and Tottenham in Gameweeks 33 and 35, though, so while matches at home to Norwich and away to Sunderland in the short-term means Baggies defenders in particular are still valuable assets, they may not make the cut as we prepare out 15-man squads for the impending doubles.

Likewise, the in-form Salomon Rondon (6.5) could provide a nice differential in the short-term in favourable match-ups against Norwich and Sunderland, but in reality he remains unlikely to see any investment, particularly with those tricky away fixtures that follow.