This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form, fixtures and bookies odds.
In Gameweek 14, the model’s top pick, Harry Kane, delivered attacking returns in what was a high-scoring Gameweek for the many who backed the Spurs frontman.Those who backed joint second on last week’s list, Alexis Sanchez, fared even better.
The Tottenham striker’s brace means this strategy now has a six out of eight success rate (success is derived from whether the model’s top pick delivers attacking returns or not).
Before I take a look at Gameweek 15’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
This article will now focus more on the form and fixtures elements and offer the bookies odds combined element at the end of the results table.
For this method, I am going to take the 10 most popular captaincy options (at time of writing, according to the FFScout captaincy poll and rank them 1-10 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. This article will now factor in the players PPG from their last 2 home and last 2 away games respectively, higher weighting will be given according to the player’s fixture. E.g. if a player is playing in an away fixture, their away PPG will be taken into account, if 2 players PPG’s are still the same, then the players total PPG will be taken into account. This will give a new and detailed look into each player’s respective form.
I understand that the odds segment can sometimes heavily outweigh others (e.g. Aguero is always likely to be low odds for scoring) so from now on, the total rank column at the end of the results table will include odds factored in, for those who like their odds taken into account.
With that in mind, let’s take at Gameweek 15’s results.
Fixture
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals conceded | Big Chances Conceded | Goal attempts in box conceded | Total |
| 1. | Defoe | Swansea (A) | 13 | 12 | 41 | 66 |
| 2.5 | Mane | West Ham (H) | 10 | 11 | 41 | 62 |
| 2.5 | Firmino | West Ham (H) | 10 | 11 | 41 | 62 |
| 4.5 | Sigurdsson | Sunderland (H) | 4 | 6 | 51 | 61 |
| 4.5 | Lukaku | Watford (A) | 11 | 7 | 43 | 61 |
| 6. | KDB | Leicester (A) | 8 | 2 | 32 | 42 |
| 7. | Sanchez | Stoke (H) | 2 | 2 | 24 | 28 |
| 9. | Costa | West Brom (H) | 3 | 3 | 19 | 25 |
| 9. | Hazard | West Brom (H) | 3 | 3 | 19 | 25 |
| 9. | Kane | Manchester United (A) | 4 | 5 | 16 | 25 |
Form
| Rank | Player | PPG | Goals | Assists | Home PPG | Away PPG |
| 1. | Hazard | 8.5 | 3 | 1 | 10.5 | 6.5 |
| 2. | Mane | 8.25 | 3 | 2 | 9.5 | 7 |
| 3. | Firmino | 5.75 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2.5 |
| 4. | Sanchez | 10 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 5. | Sigurdsson | 6.5 | 2 | 2 | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| 6. | Costa | 8.75 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10.5 |
| 7. | Defoe | 8.5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 |
| 8. | Kane | 9 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 5 |
| 9. | KDB | 4.5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Lukaku | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Odds
| Rank | Player | Odds | Implied Probability % |
| 1. | Sanchez | 8/11 | 57.89 |
| 2. | Costa | ¾ | 57.14 |
| 3. | Firmino | 17/20 | 54.05 |
| 4. | Hazard | EVS | 50.00 |
| 5. | Mane | EVS | 50.00 |
| 6. | Sigurdsson | 5/4 | 44.44 |
| 7. | Lukaku | 13/10 | 43.48 |
| 8. | Defoe | 6/4 | 40.00 |
| 9. | KDB | 13/8 | 38.10 |
| 10. | Kane | 9/5 | 35.71 |
Results
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Form | Total | Rank total with odds |
| 1. | Mane | 2.5 | 2 | 4.5 | 2nd |
| 2. | Firmino | 2.5 | 3 | 5.5 | 1st |
| 3. | Defoe | 1 | 7 | 8 | 6th |
| 4. | Sigurdsson | 4.5 | 5 | 9.5 | 5th |
| 5. | Hazard | 9 | 1 | 10 | 4th |
| 6. | Sanchez | 7 | 4 | 11 | 3rd |
| 7. | Lukaku | 4.5 | 10 | 14.5 | 9th |
| 8.5 | KDB | 6 | 9 | 15 | 10th |
| 8.5 | Costa | 9 | 6 | 15 | 7.5 |
| 10. | Kane | 9 | 8 | 17 | 7.5 |
Analysis
Taking form and fixtures into account, Sadio Mane is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method. He faces a West Ham side that has conceded 10 goals, 11 big chances and 41 goal attempts in the box in the last four Gameweeks. Combine this with an impressive 9.5 home points per game for the Liverpool winger and he represents a standout captaincy option this week.
Reports earlier this week have indicated the Senegalese forward has returned to training and should be available for the weekend.
FPL managers, who prefer looking at only the fixture element, need look no further than Jermain Defoe this week.
The Sunderland forward faces an away trip to Swansea, who have conceded a massive 13 goals, 12 big chances and 41 goal attempts in the box in the last four Gameweeks. Swans boss Bob Bradley has only just recently arrived in South Wales but is already under immense pressure to improve performances and results. An open-game may occur, which could provide the space needed for the Sunderland striker to exploit.
A home-time against West Brom should be an enticing prospect for FPL managers wanting to back Diego Costa and Eden Hazard this week but this method urges caution. West Brom have only conceded three goals, a trio of big chances and 19 goal attempts in the box in the last four Gameweeks, placing the Chelsea stars low down at joint ninth on the fixture table.
In terms of home form Eden Hazard is top, registering an impressive 10.5 home PPG, indicating that he is the more secure armband option in what will be a classic form versus fixture dilemma for his owners.
7 years, 4 months agoThanks. Pretty conclusive in favour of Mane. Don't own him but wish I did now.
Hazard for me based on those excellent form stats, even if WBA may put up a fight.