With the pre-season at the halfway point and with another bout of weekend friendlies to come, most Fantasy managers will be starting to whittle down the targets for their squads.
As I get closer to making my own decisions, the complexity of player projections versus emotion really kick in, and human nature and personal biases come into play. Should I pick player X because I like his price. Should I follow a gut-feeling about player Y’s season or should I choose player Z because he has never let me down.
I feel lucky that I’m not emotionally invested in a particular Premier League team as that often introduces further potentially blinding elements into the mix. Often we can be drawn to our own team’s players or worse still, miss out on points because we cannot stand to pick a player from a rival club.
Once I’ve refined my list of potential picks, I like to start to tinker with the Rate My Team projections feature, if only to verify my current thinking and balance the emotions at play.
Of course, the team at Fantasy Football Scout have never claimed the Rate My Team feature is accurate to a stated percentage and are clear that it is a guide.
But that doesn’t stop me and I’m sure others from wondering if we can squeeze another 0.5 from somewhere to help us upgrade on a player – ideally one we’re not emotionally invested in. This is where the tinkering begins and, if you are not careful, never stops.
It provides a wonderful outlook on providing your team with the best possible start because, even if you are Wildcarding early, the opening Gameweeks are so vital. Whether you play safe with known entities, or try to head off the high ownership players in a damage control tactic, the focus is on strong early-season scoring.
But Rate My Team makes it too easy to tinker, especially when used together with the Season Ticker.
I’m finding that the formation debate is particularly interesting this season. Is four or even five at the back an option, especially if you don’t believe there is huge value in the mid-priced midfield bracket? The Rate My Team tool certainly hints at the possibilities.
But when do you stop?
I’ve spent hours trying to find the team I’m most comfortable with which has the best projections in multiple formations. And, for the purposes of this article, I’ve then compared it against the most-picked players that create a valid squad according to FPL rules.
Foster, De Gea
Lindelof, Luiz, Trippier, Daniels, Rangel
Alli, Coutinho, Kante, Loftus-Cheek, McArthur
Lukaku, Kane, Rooney
Members can load and view this team by clicking here.
This template squad gives a projection score of 334.1 over the first six Gameweeks.
For those who don’t use the feature, the score projection is based upon an algorithm that FFS apply to determine the best starting XI for each week and applies double points to what it thinks is the best captain pick.
But the template team can be beaten with a three, four or even five-man defensive set-up by at least ten points. The highest set-up I’ve achieved is just over 346 points. I’ve also found teams I personally feel more emotionally at ease with, but who score fewer points than other options.
Has anyone achieved better, keeping to the rules?
Ignoring the rules to try to set some sort of benchmark by picking the 15 players with the highest six-Gameweek projections gives a projected score of 399.87 over that period. But it’s also a massive 26.5m over budget.
So, for now, I have my starting point. It’s a team that scores just over 340 points, offers me a good balance and allows for a change of formation and personnel.
The $64,000 question is of course, how much should we trust our own emotional decisions over a mathematical algorithm and what is the perfect balance?
6 years, 9 months ago
my record was over 350 but I hated it. have just reproduced something similar
foster (eliot)
valencia - bertrand - tripper - cedric (4.0)
fabregas - willian - alli - pogba (4.5)
morata - kane - gayle
it definitely rewards big defence more than the game itself.