Fixture Analysis – Rotation Pairs – Aston Villa and West Brom

We continue our fixture rotation articles for the season ahead by rolling out the fifth in the series this morning. Having looked at what’s on offer from West Ham/Southampton, Norwich/Stoke, Crystal Palace/Hull and Newcastle/Sunderland, we make our way to the midlands to mull over the merits of combining Aston Villa with West Brom.

The Fixtures

Similar to all our previously featured pairs, Villa and the Baggies offer up a perfect home/away rotation right across the 38 Gameweeks. Focussing on the first half of the season, the duo would face one of the previous campaign’s top six on seven occasions at home – thus leaving Fantasy managers with a schedule of 12 strong fixtures (SOT, SWA, NEW, SUN, CPL, CAR, AVL, SUN, NOR, HUL, CPL, SWA).

Villa’s fixtures are the main issue here – Paul Lambert’s side are the cause for concern in five of those seven tricky matches, with Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Everton and Man United rolling up to Villa Park in Gameweeks 2, 6, 8 9 and 16 respectively. The Baggies, on the other hand, have just a couple of problematic home ties as Arsenal and City arrive at The Hawthorns in Gameweeks 7 and 14 respectively.

For those eyeing up a Villa-West Brom combination, then, a four-way rotation pattern with Stoke and Norwich would solve the problem over those seven Gameweeks – this would hand us (CPL, NOR, ful, WBA, CAR, CAR, SWA) as alternatives. From a three-way perspective, Southampton offer the best fit in five of those seven (SUN, CPL, SWA, FUL, AVL), though Mauricio Pochettino’s side do have trips to United and Newcastle in Gameweeks 8 and 16 also on their agenda.

Over the second half of the season, the Villa/West Brom combination have just three Gameweeks where both side’s fixtures look an issue – Gameweek 22, 24 and 29. This time, West Ham serve up a perfect alternative to fall back on, with home clashes against Newcastle, Swansea and Hull over those respective matches.

Defence

Villa
While the rotation pattern looks promising, Villa’s inability to keep out their opponents remains a real issue. Lambert’s side registered five clean sheets (four at home, one away) by Gameweek 16 then promptly conceded in every league match onwards – 69 goals against was a record better than only relegated Wigan and Reading, with 73 apiece.

Looking ahead to next term, the upside is that we can expect Villa’s defensive options to remain firmly in the budget bracket. Brad Guzan was fourth overall keeper for save points in 2012/13 and a similar situation looks on the cards, with his heroics between the sticks looking crucial for Lambert’s side – a price of 4.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) seems likely for the US stopper, with Matthew Lowton also set to come in around the same price. The Villa right-back prospered as the season unfolded and produced a goal and three assists in his last eight appearances – if Lambert prevails with the 4-3-3 system rolled out towards the end of the campaign, Lowton should be afforded plenty chance to bomb forward and lend his weight to the midlanders’ attacks. New boy Antonio Luna could also prosper on the opposite side of the back-four and could offer an alternative, should he settle in quickly after moving from Sevilla earlier this summer.

West Brom
Steve Clarke’s side registered five home clean sheets in 2012/13 but after producing four of those in their first six fixtures at the Hawthorns, managed the feat just once more (Gameweek 17) and were an unreliable option in front of their own fans as the season unfolded. The Baggies managed three clean sheets on their travels – all arriving from Gameweek 26 onwards.

Although Ben Foster’s total of 105 points last time out was just two better than Guzan’s, the Baggies stopper missed eight games through injury – as a result, he’s likely to remain around the 5.0 mark when the player lists are rolled out later this month. Three goals, three assists and eight bonus points makes Gareth McAuley the best route into West Brom’s backline – the centre-half finished the season almost 30 points ahead of any other defensive team-mate. There’s a hope that Billy Jones could remain at last term’s initial 4.5 price – the right-back started just 24 matches and with his side conceding more goals and returning less clean sheets under Clarke than the previous season, Jones may be the best value option should his cost stay still. Craig Dawson could also offer value if he can possibly disrupt McAuley’s partnership with Jonas Olsson.

Attacking Options

The Main Men
There’s no doubt that Christian Benteke is the jewel in the crown for Lambert’s side. With 14 goals in the last 18 Gameweeks of 2012/13, the big Belgian grew into the role of lone striker as the season unfolded and battered many a backline into submission by the time Villa secured their safety. The issue, however, is just how much of a price rise can be anticipated across the Fantasy games – Benteke began last season at 6.5 in FPL but after racking up 19 goals and 166 points overall, anything less than 8.5 would be surprising.

Certainly, if Benteke can carry on from where he left off he may well still provide real value but Fantasy managers could instead be swayed by Gabby Agbonlahor’s form over the last few months of the previous season. Fielded on the left of the front three, he produced attacking returns in seven of his last nine appearances – a real source of consistency which harvested six goals, four assists and 11 bonus points from Gameweek 29 onwards. Alternatively, with Agbonlahor expected to come in around 7.0, Andreas Weimann may provide us with a cheap third forward around 6.0 or less – he looks to have nailed down the role on the right of the front three and chipped in with three goals and a trio of assists in his final 12 fixtures.

In terms of summer arrivals, Aleksandar Tonev could well benefit if Lambert hands him the most advanced central midfield berth behind Benteke in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation and would be one to consider if he comes in around 5.5. Nicklas Helenius, on the other hand, looks likely to be afforded game time from the bench as a deputy for Benteke – the new boy is similar in stature to the Belgian and could step into the breach if Benteke decides to move to pastures new.

For the Baggies, James Morrison offered the only decent midfield option last time out. The Scot initially thrived in “the hole” under Clarke, producing three goals, four assists and seven bonus points in his first 11 appearances but fell away as the season unfolded, though a 12 point haul against United on the final day of the season highlighted his capabilities. Having racked up 133 points last time out, a slight rise to 6.0 to 6.5 is likely, though Morrison’s inconsistency is something of a worry – he produced attacking returns in just 10 of his 35 appearances and managed just three assists between Gameweek 13 and 31. It’s little wonder, then, that Steve Clarke has been linked with the likes of Scott Sinclair, Yossi Benayoun and Salomon Kalou as he looks to bolster his attacking options in midfield.

Up top, Romelu Lukaku’s return to Chelsea gives Clarke a real headache for the season ahead. As mentioned in yesterday’s Window Wish List article, a move for Demba Ba could be on the cards – Clarke’s ties with his former club and close affinity with Jose Mourinho could help, while Ba’s lack of impact at the Bridge, allied with the return of Lukaku and potential acquisition of Edinson Cavani, should force him down the pecking order for the lone forward role. At present, then, we only have Shane Long to consider but that will surely change over the next few weeks as the Baggies boss scours the market in order to build upon last season’s promising eighth place finish. Indeed, Clarke will be hoping his former Chelsea ties stand him in good stead in the summer transfer market – both Nicolas Anelka and Franco Di Santo have also been linked with a possible move to the Hawthorns earlier today.