Interview – Geoff Pryor – Sky Sports Winner

Spurs and Southampton "Janus" Appraisal

This is the draft for the forthcoming article. Comments are welcome, especially from Spurs and Southampton fans and those that know the clubs well. All comments will be taken into account in the final revision. As usual, please skip over if you don't want to read a long post.

SPURS & SOUTHAMPTON REVIEW

Having dealt with Liverpool in the last article we now come to the other two teams that qualified for the Europa League (EL) through their PL finishing positions.

Over the last 10 years, EL (or equivalent) teams that qualified through league position have finished on average 3.2 places lower in the Premier League than in the season in which they qualified. [Source: BBC] Mauricio Pocchettino of Spurs says "the Europa League is a very tough competition because it affects your domestic league...having had a Europa League season I can confirm that it is very difficult to manage with the Premier League and both cups". 3.2 places lower amounts to a loss of around 8-10 points.

The effect on Spurs was indeed very marked. Of the 9 games they played after EL fixtures during the season they won 3, lost 5 and drew 1. That's the form of a relegation-threatened team.

Southampton and Spurs had very different goals records. Spurs F58 A53 GD5 and 9 PL clean sheets. 53 goals conceded is huge for a top 6 team. Soton F54 A33 GD21 and 15 PL clean sheets. The defensive performance was excellent, just behind Chelsea, but the goals scored number masks a problem. 3 times Southampton put teams in poor form to the sword at St. Mary's (Newcastle 4-0, Sunderland 8-0, Villa 6-1) but if you take those three games out, their total of 36 goals in the other 35 games looks nowhere near as impressive. Southampton won 7 games 1-0 during the season and that was more typical for them.

So, Spurs a team that could score goals against most teams but with a leaky defence; Southampton a team with a very solid defence but who struggled to score for much of the season.

THE DEFENDERS

It is very hard to recommend any Spurs defender based on the season just gone. Lloris was the highest FPL points scorer but his returns lagged quite a way behind similarly priced GKs like Mignolet because of Spurs' lack of clean sheets. Rose showed that he had attacking capabilities with 3 goals and 5 assists, but take those 33 points away and he had 70 FPL points - miserable for a top 6 defender. And he was the best of them.

The only other likely candidate for many managers would be Eric Dier, who won his place back and played the last 15 games of the season, having been in and out of the team before that. He shouldn't be priced too high and, like Rose, could be worth considering if Spurs look like they can improve their defensive record.

Southampton, on the other hand, were defensive gold for much of the season - until Forster got badly injured. Clyne and Bertrand racked up very good totals for players who started at 5.0, as did Forster who was leading the GK charts until his injury. But there is a double problem. Firstly, Southampton now have EL to contend with. And secondly, their assets, especially the defensive assets, are unlikely to be so kindly priced next season. Clyne may leave, but would Bertrand or Fonte be worth 6.0 or 6.5? We could easily be facing a scenario, as with Everton assets in the season just gone, where the price has increased but the performance is reduced.

One Southampton defender that might be interesting, however, is Maya Yoshida. Likely to play alongside Fonte in the absence of Alderweireld, he could conceivably be priced at a bargain 4.5. This would enable the likely Southampton-Bournemouth rotation pair to be a feasible one.

THE MIDFIELDERS

There are many Spurs and Southampton midfielders that can be discounted as FPL options based on the season just gone. The defensive midfielders like Schneiderlin (who may leave anyway), Wanyama, Mason and Bentaleb are poorly rewarded by FPL and unlikely to be cheap enough to be bench midfielders. Of the attacking midfielders, Lamela, Dembele, Townsend, Tadic and Elia were all in and out of the team and none had seasons to write home about.

So this leaves us with 3 main contenders and a wildcard to look at - Mane, Eriksen, Chadli and the wildcard Ward-Prowse.

Mane and Chadli are very comparable. Both ended priced between 6.0 and 6.5, both scored 11 PL goals (Mane with 4 assists, Chadli with 6) and both established themselves as regulars during the season. Mane had marginally the better stats for both creativity and shooting but there was very little in it. With Mane you have the key man in the Southampton attack; with Chadli you have a less key player but in a team more equipped to score goals. Take your pick. Much depends on price for next season but it is hard to imagine either coming in at much more than 7.0 (maybe 7.5) and at that level either could be worthwhile options.

Eriksen has been a very frustrating player for FPL managers to own. He played much more than in the 2013/14 season (3132 minutes against 1976 minutes) yet only managed 30 more FPL points. At the same time he may have been one of the unluckiest players in FPL terms. His creativity stats are way in front of Mane or Chadli yet he only had 4 assists. He took more shots per 90 minutes than either but only scored 10 goals and managed to hit the woodwork on numerous occasions.

Clearly the main creator in Pocchettino's plans and an expert free-kick taker, the gamble FPL managers will need to take with Eriksen is whether his "luck" will turn next season. If it does he could be a snip at a probable 8.0. If not he could be as frustrating as ever.

The wildcard pick is James Ward-Prowse. Considered a "big prospect" by Roy Hodgson, the 20 year old played 25 games for Southampton despite an injury absence, though often as a substitute. His creativity stats are good (better than Mane and Chadli) and he takes a good number of shots per 90, albeit with a poor conversion rate. He also has a share of corners and free-kicks. Unlikely to be priced above 5.0, he could turn out to be a very good budget midfield option if he becomes a regular starting player. We have a potential bandwagon here.

THE STRIKERS

Harry Kane. Stellar season, 21 goals, 7 assists, 191 FPL points (2nd highest scoring forward in FPL) despite not having established himself as a 1st team regular till mid November. Wow. But can he do it again and what will his price be?

Taking the first question first, the stats say he was lucky. But the stats can lie. His creative numbers per 90 (chances created, key passes) are lower than Pelle but he had more assists. His shots in the box per 90 were also less than Pelle had but he scored way more goals and a lot of them from distance.

Maybe he's just that good, a clinical finisher where Pelle is a poor finisher. But it is also possible that Kane had one of those seasons where everything turned to gold, and the way his form (and FPL returns) levelled off over the last 8 games of the season lends some weight to that argument.

Then the 2nd question, price. I can't see how it can be much less than 10.0 (maybe 9.5). That's going to make having Kane a much more tricky call, he won't be a default selection as he was when priced at 5.5 or 6.0. I'm pretty sure he won't be a GW1 selection for me at that kind of price, though I am sure others will differ.

Pelle was prolific for Koeman in 2 seasons at Feyenoord and started quite well at Southampton. But as the season went on he picked up a reputation for his ability to put seemingly unmissable chances over the bar, against the woodwork or into the GK's hands. In many ways he was the reverse case to Kane who he led in chances created and shots in the box per 90 by a long way but fell far behind in assists and goals scored. Unlucky, or just a poor finisher?

The general view is poor finisher. But how did he score 50 goals in 57 games for Feyenoord then? And why did Italy cap him 3 times in the 2014/15 season? He would be a big, big gamble for GW1 but at a likely price of 7.5 he could be a bargain if he starts to fire. And I, for one, wouldn't be entirely surprised to see that happen.

The other obvious candidate that should be mentioned is Shane Long. He has very good creative stats too (better than Kane) and while his shooting numbers aren't as high it should be remembered that he has usually been used in a wide role at Southampton and often as a substitute. If he were to get the nod over Pelle as 1st choice central striker he could be a real bargain 3rd striker at around 5.5.

SUMMARY

Lots to consider with these two teams. How will they cope with the Europa League? How will the likely price increases for many Southampton players as well as Kane affect their value as FPL picks? Can some of the potential bargains like Dier, Yoshida, Ward-Prowse and Long nail 1st team spots? Will Mane have a better run with no ACON to worry about? There are probably going to be good players to have from these two teams. But it may take a few weeks after the season gets going before we can be sure about which ones.