Sleeper – Mesut Ozil

Having arrived at the Emirates for fee thought to be in the region of £42 million, it’s fair to say that Mesut Ozil’s career at Arsenal has fallen short of expectations. Furthermore, the German playmaker suffered a downturn in his Fantasy output in 2014/15, ensuring he emerges as the latest player to feature in our pre-season Sleeper series.

After making an encouraging start to his Arsenal career, scoring five goals and providing ten assists in 2013/14, expectations were high for the playmaker ahead of last summer.

The arrival of Alexis Sanchez from Barcelona, allied with Aaron Ramsey’s improved form, meant that the German international struggled to capture the attention of Fantasy managers as the campaign got underway.

Valued at 9.0 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), the same price as the Welshman, Ozil made a slow start to 2014/15. Rested for Gameweek 1 due to his exertions for Germany in the 2014 World Cup, he registered attacking points in just one of his first six appearances, bagging a goal, assist and full bonus in the 3-0 win against Aston Villa. In the last of those six outings against Chelsea, the former Real Madrid man suffered a partial knee ligament tear, which would rule him out until the New Year.

Ozil returned to action in Gameweek 21, coming as a late substitute against Stoke, before reclaiming a starting berth in the 5-0 win against Aston Villa two matches later. He repeated his 13-point haul from the reverse fixture, and would then find his best form of the season, scoring twice and grabbing four assists in his next seven appearances.

Unfortunately for Fantasy managers, Ozil’s season would end as it had started, with no attacking returns from his final seven matches. He finished with just 103 FPL points, to his name, down on the 137 he accumulated during his first year with the Gunners, although he did make four less appearances.

When comparing Arsenal’s midfielders, Ozil fared well in terms of creating chances, teeing up a team-mate every 27.8 minutes compared to Sanchez (39), Santi Cazorla (40.5) and Ramsey (44.9). Indeed, his frequency of key passes was quicker than any regular in the Premier League, with City’s David Silva the closest on 29.5 minutes.

Furthermore, Ozil’s goal conversion rate of 13.8%, which was more than Sanchez, Cazorla and Ramsey, is also impressive, though bearing in mind he fired an effort every 67.2 minutes, it highlights the fact that the German is more inclined to play in a team-mate rather than fire off a shot himself.

THE PROSPECTS

With so many options for Fantasy managers to choose from the Arsenal midfield, the pricing is going to the crucial as to how we view their assets. Sanchez is sure to be the most expensive, with a price tag of around 10.5 to 11.0 expected, but with the Chile international possibly set to miss the start of next season due to an extended rest following Copa America, the battle for our attention may well be between Ozil, Ramsey and Theo Walcott. While Cazorla has penalty duties and shares set-pieces, his role alongside Francis Coquelin in the double-pivot makes him a less attractive option, particularly as he is likely to be priced similarly to the aforementioned trio.

Walcott may well earn plenty of suitors after finishing the season strongly as a central striker but with Olivier Giroud also in the mix, his security of starts still remains an issue. Ramsey has spoken of his desire to play in a more central role after spending much of last season on the right flank but the versatile Welshman may find it tough to nail down a regular spot in his preferred position, with Ozil’s presence in the centre looking set to continue.

What plays into Ozil’s favour is that he should benefit from an extended summer break following the exertions of the World Cup last year. Speaking ahead of the FA Cup final, the German international admitted he felt tired at the beginning of last season:

“I had the World Cup after my first season here. It was such a great time but when I came back, the fitness coach said that even though I felt fit, the freshness was missing. I continued to give everything to help the team and that’s how I got my injury.”

Also, his playing time from last season, when fit, suggests he is less prone to rotation than others, completing the full 90 minutes in 16 of his 22 league appearances, and appearing only once as a substitute. If Jack Wilshere and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are both fit for the start of next season, along with any further new additions, there is going to be a real squeeze on the midfield slots, making Ozil’s relative security of starts all the more valuable, while the German also takes plenty of Arsenal’s set-pieces.

Having netted nine times in the 2012/13 campaign for Real Madrid, Ozil has shown he can score at the highest level. Last season, David Silva enjoyed his most prolific campaign in England, netting 12 league goals, and although there is less competition for places in the City midfield, that leap made by the Spaniard is certainly one that Ozil has the potential to rival. If he can add goals to his already high assist potential, he could become a viable alternative to Sanchez and provide an unlikely value route into the Gunners midfield.