Fantasy Premier League – Player List Analysis – Premium Defenders

We roll out the fourth article in our analysis of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Player Price List this afternoon. Having looked at what’s on offer with the Goalkeepers, Budget Defenders and Mid-Price Defenders, we cast an eye over the premium defenders for the 2015/16 campaign.

Before we kick off our analysis, it’s worth bearing in mind a handful of new changes to the FPL Bonus Point System (BPS) system revealed on Thursday, which will affect defenders.

As we’ve already discussed a decrease in the BPS for pass completion will prove detrimental to defenders in teams that dominate possession. This will influence some of the contenders in this article, such as Chris Smalling, Vincent Kompany, Laurent Koscielny and John Terry – all four registered a pass completion rate of 87% or more and also produced more than 30 successful passes per appearance.

To somewhat compensate, an alteration to the Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI) should boost the bonus point prospects of dominant central defenders. Previously, a defender was required to make three clearances, blocks or interceptions to earn a point towards BPS but now needs to make just two. In addition, players are now rewarded two BPS points for every net successful tackle this time around – double last season’s one point.

With that in mind, we’ll now assess the main premium candidates…

Laurent Koscielny is the only Arsenal defender to come in at 6.0 this season, largely by virtue of his three goals in just 27 appearances in the previous campaign. The France international only registered eight goal attempts from inside the box last term, however, so he may find it difficult to maintain such an impressive strike rate, although he has netted at least twice in each of the last five campaigns. Koscielny also grabbed 15 bonus points last season, three more than Per Mertesacker, who made eight more appearances than his partner at the heart of the Gunners defence. In terms of CBI, Koscielny’s average of one every 8.73 minutes was far quicker than Mertesacker’s 11.37 and suggests he’s the likeliest of the pair to benefit from this tweak.

The success of the Chelsea backline last season, where they racked up 17 clean sheets, has seen all their starters priced at 6.0 and above. Cesar Azpilicueta is the cheapest at 6.0, with the Spaniard perhaps the most likely of the back four to be rotated, with Filipe Luis offering solid cover. The latter only started nine matches last season, though, with two of those coming after the title had been wrapped up, so the threat to Azpilicueta looks minimal, particularly in light of speculation linking the Brazil international with a move back to Atletico Madrid. The former Marseille defender also led all Chelsea defenders for bonus points last season, despite only bagging three assists in terms of attacking returns.

Gary Cahill is available at 6.5, but is unlikely to attract many suitors given he lost his place to Kurt Zouma for part of last season and only managed to notch a single goal and assist. Compared to other Chelsea defenders, Cahill led the way for total CBI (289) and average CBI (one every 10.93 minutes) in 2014/15, though his security of starts looks weaker than the rest of the Blues’ backline.

That brings us to Branislav Ivanovic and John Terry, who both carry a 7.0 FPL price tag after starting all 38 league matches last term. Ivanovic was ranked fourth for successful tackles last time out, with a tally of 75 superior to any other Chelsea backline option, though Azpilicueta made just five fewer in almost 1000 minutes less. In terms of attacking threat, Terry scored five times last season to Ivanovic’s four, but the latter’s underlying stats are clearly superior. Ivanovic led all defenders in 2014/15 for goal attempts from inside the box with 30, compared to Terry’s 19, and was also third among all defenders for chances created (36). Terry netted 25% of his chances last time out and will be hard pushed to replicate that conversion rate.

With Romelu Lukaku seemingly Everton’s first-choice penalty taker, Leighton Baines has seen his stock plummet. The England left-back has a starting price of 6.5 this season, which unless the Toffees can improve on last term’s ten shut-outs, may deter many Fantasy managers. Baines also lost some of his direct free-kick duties to Kevin Mirallas, and should the Belgian stay at Goodison Park, this further dents the former Wigan man’s appeal. He did still chalk up two goals and nine assists in 2014/15, so when Everton’s schedule improves from Gameweek 11, Baines could move back onto our radars.

Seamus Coleman has also seen his price fall, with the Republic of Ireland international now setting us back 6.0 in FPL. The right-back scored three goals and grabbed four assists last season – a reasonable return – although with so many strong options available in the mid-price bracket, he will need to keep producing those attacking returns to justify that extra investment. Given that Phil Jagielka is cheaper at 5.5, Coleman may struggle to win over Fantasy suitors.

Chris Smalling’s attacking threat means he’s the priciest backline option at United. Setting you back 6.0, the centre-half produced four goals and 17 goal attempts from inside the box in just 24 appearances. Given his chequered injury history and the fact there will be Man United starters available for 5.5, though, it remains to be seen whether he’ll provide decent value. Smalling’s average CBI (8.37 minutes) was quicker than Arsenal’s Koscielny, for example, and just behind Phil Jones’ 7.86 for frequency amongst United backline options.

Over at the Etihad, disappointing campaigns for both Vincent Kompany and Pablo Zabaleta sees the pair both available at 6.0. In a season blighted by injury, Kompany failed to register any attacking returns in his 25 appearances last season, after scoring four times in the title-winning 2013/14 campaign. It’s worth noting that Kompany averaged one CBI every 12.98 minutes last time out – some way behind Martin Demichelis’ 10.46 for the Citizens.

Zabaleta registered a reasonable return of one goal and four assists last term, but like his skipper, struggled to hit the heights of previous years. He only created 26 chances in 29 appearances, which is a poor return given the attacking talent on show at City. Bacary Sagna didn’t steal too much playing time, making only eight starts, so if Manuel Pellegrini can get his side firing more consistently this season, it would only boost the Argentine’s chances of bagging attacking points. City did manage to keep 13 clean sheets last term, despite generally failing to impress as a backline, so an improvement on that number would certainly provide a boost to their regulars as Pellegrini attempts to wrestle the title back from Chelsea. Looking at the stats from last term, Zabaleta was second amongst defenders for successful tackles (78) and should be one of the main beneficiaries of this new rule change.