Moving Target – Saido Berahino

Interesting post, cheers for your work..

Fair points but it was only November when we were all talking about the lack of CSs and the need for budget defenders. Its all swings and roundabouts and I dont think there is a correct answer for this. If you can get 5 rotating 4.5s that have great fixtures then the extra money turns Ozil to Sanchez.

You are spot on about plenty of defenders being good value.

The problem is, if you spend too much money on your defence you end up in a striker/midfield bracket that performs a long way below the premium priced ones.

You are conveniently making your point when wingbacks are doing well. Spurs went through a spell (GW8-GW15) where they'd concede a goal a game. Check out Coleman's return GW7-GW15. I'd have dared you to hold on to that backline around that time when the Liverpool mids, Hazard, and pretty much every else in midfield was firing. You need to adapt to whatever formation is doing well. Articles in hindsight all seem fine but it isn't always that straight forward.

All interesting points but there's a reason that teams are not built out of the 11 best value players. Got to make hay while the sun is shining and so when the big boys are firing, you'll get left behind if you invest too heavily in defence.

Worth noting that in Firmino, Coutinho, Mane, Hazard, Sanchez, Aguero, KdB etc etc we have many high-mid to premium players capable of reliable or very explosive returns and who for one reason or another are not really doing it. See how you feel about value for money if that situation changes

Wouldn't trust Spurs without Toby, held off on the Rose in transfer (Alonso, Baines, Brunt owner for a number of weeks)

Think the Brunt away point if a touch misleading given the teams they have been

Plenty of cheap options too Mee at home has been fruitful who I'll be using as my 4th defender this week while benching Snodgrass

Actually thinking about a west ham defender in though, to cover the blank game weeks and with Fonte now it's a cheap way of covering a starter

I'm with you on this one, thank you for articulating it better than I ever could.

I can only speak for my team, but all it comes down to is owning a slightly cheaper midfielder; Antonio, as opposed to Eriksen in my case (c1.5m - 2m difference, depending upon when acquired). And with 3 Spurs players already in my team anyway, I don't see this as an issue.

Good points, seems a sensible conclusion for the current state of things. I share your interest in the way defenders are being rewarded on the bonus side of things. Feels like we have only scratched the surface on exactly how that process works with anecdotal observations about Heaton getting more bonus share due to less passing and more clearing by his back line and match winning goal points being added on after games end. Maybe this is actually common knowledge among more serious/experienced FPL managers but I definitely feel like I don't understand how bonus points ultimately get awarded that well.

This game is all about timing, PPG is a measure of the points per game on average across the season.

We don't give a toss about that, we buy players in a good patch (hopefully) and then sell later. E.g. wildcarded Lukaku in before his hatty (has very good underlying stats before that), hauled a few times after then sold for Defoe who went on a lovely run.

Timing is key.

Totally agree with you I'm planning to get some Everton in gamweek 24 and it comes down to play 343 with Barkley/Mirallas or 442 with Baines. Will Baines outscore them over the three or four weeks I plan to own them, yes probably, so I'm looking at playing a back four of Alonso, Walker, Brunt and Baines with Sanchez, Ali & Philips in mid Luk, Ibra and Kane up top.

Would never have considered 442 before but I think now its a realistic option.

Totally agree, but with 4 premium and one bargain (Yoshida, Pieters, Holgate, Friend). Gives you extra 1 mln to for upragdes elsewhere.

Our formation dilemmas are even less important than the PL managers' decisions -- if the Chelsea 3-4-3 irl becomes even more consistently used then yes, these attacking wingbacks are very good value picks. The engrained thinking you are talking about is based on years of watching teams play a 4-4-2 pretty consistently, so it would stand to reason that those attacking fullbacks would have been much more defensively positioned, not the proto-attackers they have been of late.

Interesting post, thanks.

I've got 3 premiums and will probably bring in Brunt as a 4th option, and it seems to have crept up on me because I haven't felt the need to bring in expensive forwards, so defensive transfers have happened instead.
This is probably only possible now because Aguero isn't a requirement so there is slightly more cash to spread through the squad.

Also, would have to question your thoughts on wing backs being midfielders but with more clean sheet points. I doubt any of them would be near our teams as midfield options, their attacking output is too scarce, so clean sheets are still a requirement for premium defenders to be options.

Have been saying similar recently, team below playing 5-3-2:

Heaton (Pickford);
Alonso, Baines, Bellerin, Coleman, Walker;
Sanchez, Alli, Eriksen (Phillips, De Roon);
Ibra, Vista (Crouch)

Bellerin hasn't done much since I got him in but if arsenal don't tighten over their good fixtures then he is an easy downgrade, but Crouch and Phillips can easily cover. My defenders are basically midfielders who get an extra 3 points for a clean sheet and an extra point for a goal, offset by losing points for every 2 goals conceded. Worth the risk to me.

Also, I'd use PPG at home/for easy matchups when discussing defenders in a rotation. The whole point is that you want to know how many points they'd score in games where you would actually play them. I find RMT very helpful for this as I can see what the expected returns for my rotating players might be vs a plug and play every week premium defender.

Nobody would debate a Spurs, Chelsea, or maybe even Arsenal defender, so I think your debate boils down to
Snodgrass, Phillips, Stanislas vs Coleman, Baines, Brunt, etc.

It's a close call.

A simple stat that exposes why we often opt to spend big in attack is that looking at the defenders you mentioned:

Alonso, Rose, Coleman, Baines Brunt: 12 double digit hauls

Ibra, Eriksen, Alli, Firmino, Costa: 24 double digit hauls, and many of these are higher than the defenders double digit hauls

Captain choices are important in this game, as is owning as many of those premium choices when they're firing. Investing in defence might be wise right now, but having that much money on the bench as 'keepers' when players elsewhere are firing isn't a good strategy

When everyone was going for a shoestring defence earlier in the season I gambled on a premium 4-at-the-back defence and it went terribly, lost almost 1m places - partly due to the hits it took to repair my side.

shhhh

Used my WC a few weeks ago to bring in a defense of Rose, Baines, Daniels, Brunt, Jones.

Was always in the camp rooting for cheap defense on the bench, but desperately need something different this season now, and hoping this strategy makes a difference.

I know I'll bench points, but frankly, it's better to seem some on the bench instead of none at all this season. Also, with blanks and DGWs coming and no WC to deal with that, I'd rather rely on a good 15 man squad instead of a higher priced starting 11.

Your post helps reaffirm that, so thanks! :p

I agree with this defence. I have Mustafi instead of Rose, but will change to Rose or Walker when the fixtures improve in a couple of weeks.

Cool read and really nice team, though your concept(and a lot of teams on here) isn't for me. I've a hard enough time picking 11 players a week let alone picking 11 out of 15! I love having Capoue, Dawson( Hull ), and Amat on my bench....because that's exactly where they'll stay! Bench aches are real!

Rhinos has been about 4/5 GWs ahead of this curve, and had plenty of success with it.

Points per million stats might be a red herring - we chop and change mids and forwards much more than defenders, so although Kane has the same PPG as Alonso you're more likely to have locked in Alonso and not swapped him out after a few blanks than you are to have kept Kane through a dry spell.

Ultimately what matters in FPL is picking players who score well. Groundbreaking stuff, I know, but if you pick defenders who score well (Chelsea's defenders, rose/walker, Baines/Coleman) and played 4-5 at the back you could have a great season. However, it's not that easy to predict which defender should will score well. Antonio Valencia looked great in the first couple weeks of the season but he's only at 3.3 PPG. Bellerin and Toby are sub 4 PPG. David Luiz is at 4.4 despite chelseas success. Was he really any worse of a pick than Cahill at the early part of the season? Will the defenders still who have been the best points wise be the best for the rest of the season? Some probably will, but others might fade and underperformers will rise. There are 5 defenders with points per game over 5 and 15 midfielders. The degree of difficulty in picking the perfect back line is higher than picking a good midfield IMO.

Also, looking at season long points per game isn't a perfect metric. you don't have a static team.

Totally agree.
Wing backs like Rose and Alonso are playing as wingers. Midfield seems to be dead in terms of big hitters (except Sanchez). Big Forwards look very good over 8million.
I'm thinking about 442...433....523???
The defensive value looks great.

You're completely right. I changed my attitude this season, playing 433 having both Valencia and Shaw. At their starting prices, they're far better than any midfielders in that bracket. I'm the highest I've ever been at 22K OR at the moment thanks to relying on Rose Alonso Koscielny and Brunt each week.