The Promoted – Brighton and Hove Albion

We begin our pre-season coverage of the promoted sides with analysis of Championship runners-up Brighton and Hove Albion.

Along with Champions Newcastle United, Chris Hughton’s troops dominated the division, with the pair swapping first and second spots for much of the campaign.

The Seagulls secured promotion with three games to spare following a 2-1 victory against Wigan Athletic. But two defeats and a draw in the final trio of fixtures meant they finished second on 93 points, one behind Rafa Benitez’s Magpies.

Promotion is a major event in the south coast side’s history, given they last graced the top flight of English football in 1983.

The Statistics

CS = Clean sheets

Home form was crucial to Brighton’s successful season. Their 17 wins in front of their own fans was a Championship record and their three defeats was bettered only by Reading’s two home losses.

They also set a defensive record at the Amex Stadium, shipping just 14 goals on the way to earning 12 shut-outs.

In addition, their tally of 46 home goals was the third best in the division, with only Newcastle (49) and Norwich City (55) scoring more. Having said that, with 14.4 shots per game at the Amex, Brighton ranked just 11th in terms of attacking threat at home.

The away form is perhaps more concerning. Brighton’s goal output nose dived to just 28 on their travels, which was only the tenth best in the Championship and eight shy of Newcastle’s tally of 36. However, the 12.3 shots per game does rank sixth overall.

Brighton still managed to accrue 11 victories away from the Amex – the third best record behind Fulham and Newcastle. A resilience on the road was key to that success: over their 23 away days they conceded just 26 times, with only Newcastle, Sheffield Wednesday and Fulham shipping fewer.

If they are to prosper in the Premier League, the Seagulls will have to remain resolute at the back, particularly at the Amex, but an increase in their attacking zeal against the top flight’s stronger defences will also be critical.

The Manager

Chris Hughton racked up just under 300 appearances as a left-back for Spurs between 1977 and 1990. Following brief spells at West Ham United and Brentford, he retired at the age of 34 in 1993 and took up a coaching role at Spurs.

He remained with the North London side for another 14 years, becoming assistant manager, and twice served as caretaker boss. When Spurs boss Martin Jol was sacked in October 2007 Hughton, his assistant manager, was also dismissed.

But he did not remain out of work for long, joining Newcastle’s management team as first team coach just four months later. As with his time at Spurs, he was called on as caretaker manager on three separate occasions and, following the Magpies’ relegation to the Championship in 2009/10, he took on the job permanently, steering them back to the Premier League.

However, he lasted less than six months in the top role and was sacked following a 3-1 defeat to West Brom in December.

A season-long stint at Championship side Birmingham City followed, in which Hughton guided them to the group stages of the Europa League and the promotion play-offs, where the Blues lost to Blackpool in the semi-final.

The Midlands side missed out on the Premier League, but Hughton still moved into the top flight when appointed manager of Norwich in 2012. He ensured they remained among the elite of the English game in his first season, but was sacked towards the end of the following campaign as the Canaries moved closer to eventual relegation. He then joined Brighton in 2014.

His favoured formation for much of his managerial career, and in particular for Brighton in the 2016/17 campaign, has been 4-4-2.

During his final season at Newcastle, this was used most frequently with Andy Carroll and Shola Ameobi up front, supported by Kevin Nolan in an attacking midfield role.

For Norwich’s 2012/13 Premier League campaign, 4-4-2 was also used most often, but for the following season, Hughton made changes with Grant Holt fielded as a lone striker supported by attacking midfielders including Robert Snodgrass.

Hughton has admitted he will modify his tried and tested 4-4-2 for Brighton’s return to the top flight and look to deploy a lone striker supported by a number 10.

“I think it’s difficult to go through a season playing 4-4-2, particularly as a new club. Leicester play it generally but they are more established. I would see myself at times playing it but also very much a 4-4-1-1.” – Hughton

The Promoted Squad

A core of around half a dozen players were utilised most frequently by Hughton in his 4-4-2-focused promotion push, with the rest prone to significant rotation. At home, those players with more attacking intent were favoured, while on the road defensive acumen became a priority.

Home or away, Glenn Murray was the most used striker, deployed 45 times – the same number of appearances as midfielder and set-piece specialist Anthony Knockaert. Also in midfield, Dale Stephens was fielded 39 times.

At the back, keeper David Stockdale was another mainstay, appearing 45 times, veteran right-back Bruno notched 42 appearances and centre-back Lewis Dunk turned out 43 times.

Most are expected to feature for the Seagulls next season. However age may curtail the pitch time of Bruno (36) and Murray, who is 33.

Here’s an assessment of those players who made at least five appearances for Brighton last season and who are still currently with the club:

David Stockdale (45 starts, one assist)
Should the former Fulham stopper sign a new contract, which was put on the table last week, he is set to be a regular for Brighton’s top flight effort, having missed just one league match during 2016/17. But it has been reported this week that he has rejected the deal on offer, suggesting contract wrangling may continue for some time should he decide to remain.

Given the Seagulls’ strong defensive record at home, the 31-year-old looks to be a worthy candidate for those who favour a cheap goalkeeper rotation strategy, particularly if, as expected, he is priced at 4.5m.

However, we should perhaps not expect Stockdale to replicate the form of Burnley’s Tom Heaton on arrival back in the Premier League. Stockdale produced a save every 36.2 minutes last season, compared to Heaton’s 22.1 minutes this term and 22.3 minutes in his own promotion from the Championship back in 2015/16.

Bruno (42 starts and four assists)
The Spanish right-back has appeared 183 times for Brighton since joining in 2012 from Valencia and has been defying his advancing years admirably ever since. For the second successive season, he was named in the Championship team of the year and next season will be hoping to retain a starting berth despite celebrating his 37^th birthday in October.

But as a Fantasy prospect, he will need to deliver on his attacking promise to compete with the arguably more secure Lewis Dunk.

Bruno did produce four assists last season, supplying a key pass every 112 minutes – an identical rate to Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso and only just slower than Bournemouth’s Charlie Daniels (109.3 minutes).

Liam Rosenior (Nine starts, one substitute appearance and one assist)
Utility man Rosenoir is a seasoned professional, with 118 top-flight starts under his belt for Fulham, Reading and Hull City. The 32-year-old has been a useful player for Hughton, able to offer cover in either full-back or wide midfield roles. A similar role is likely for his return to the top flight.

Gaetan Bong (24 starts, four assists)
Should Hughton fail to recruit another left-back, Bong is the most likely to start in that position. His average a key pass every 90 minutes top ranks in the Brighton defence and helped produce four assists across his 24 starts, although he offers very little goal threat having mustered just seven shots on goal.

Sebastien Pocognoli (17 starts, three substitute appearances, one goal and one assist)
On loan from West Brom, this Belgian left-back has not been offered a permanent contract by Brighton. It seems unlikely that he will put on a Seagulls shirt again, although as he is out of contract with the Baggies this summer. Hughton may consider an offer should he fail to secure other full-back targets, but with just 17 starts he was already behind Bong in the pecking order.

Lewis Dunk (43 starts, two goals and one assist)
The towering defender was the only regular centre-back for Brighton last season and looks assured of starts next term.

Two goals and an assist in 2016/17 hint at the potential of attacking returns and, with a 38 attempts – a shot every 98.5 minutes – Dunk clearly offers a genuine goal threat.

Dunk is also an obvious stand-out when it comes to bonus point potential.

He produced 481 clearances, blocks and interceptions (CBIs) – at a rate of a CBI every 7.7 minutes. That would place Dunk among the top echelons of Premier League defenders. Bournemouth’s Steve Cook, who topped the ranks for CBI’s, claimed one every 7.1 minutes.

He also won a tackle every 52.7 minutes – top-ranked among Hughton’s defence and again a rate that would place Dunk among the top Premier League defenders.

But Dunk’s disciplinary record is a major concern. His 12 yellow cards was more than any of this team-mates, and he also picked up a red card – over the season, that may just hinder his Bonus Points System output.

Shane Duffy (31 starts and two goals)
Irish international Duffy was Dunk’s most regular centre-back partner, but a fractured metatarsal in April conspired to curtail his starts to just 31. He signed a four-year deal last summer and looks the frontrunner to start alongside Dunk next season, although fresh recruits in this position look likely in the summer.

Two goals last season offers the prospect of the occasional attacking return, particularly at set-pieces – his aerial duel winning rate of 6.1 per match was more than any of his team-mates and was fifth best in the Championship.

With a CBI every 8.09 minutes, Duffy could also compete with Dunk for bonus points, although he cannot compete for tackles won. Nonetheless, if Duffy is more kindly priced than Dunk , he would perhaps become the preferred option.

Uwe Hunemeier (11 starts and one goal)
German central defender Hunemeier was back-up for Duffy during the 2016/17 campaign and a similar role beckons in the top flight.

Should Duffy or Dunk succumb to injury, he may offer limited appeal as a temporary option. Notably, he recorded a CBI more frequently then Duffy (8.05 minutes) and only just slower than Dunk while registering a shot on goal every 90 minutes – faster than both Duffy and Dunk.

Dale Stephens (33 starts, six substitute appearances, two goals and two assists)
Defensive-minded midfielder Dale Stephens started the campaign under a cloud, but emerged to the bright sunshine of promotion by the end.

After missing out on promotion in 2015/16, he put in a transfer request that was turned down. Once he had agreed to stay on, he finished with 39 appearances, including six as a substitute.

The 27-year-old signed a new four-year deal earlier this month, which indicates he has been given assurances of pitch-time and looks an almost certain starter in Brighton’s return to the top flight.

However, as a Fantasy prospect he appears limited, with just two goals and the same amount of assists last season.

Steve Sidwell (26 starts, eight substitute appearances, one goal)
The Premier League veteran was the most regular starter alongside Stephens in central midfield. The former Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Stoke, Aston Villa and Reading player has racked up 200 appearances in the top flight and this is likely to be a key reason why Brighton have offered him a new deal.

But with his last regular Premier League starting role coming in 2013/14, when he recorded 34 appearances for Fulham, he may be little more than a bit-part player next season.

Also, with just one goal last campaign, albeit a sensational 45-yard screamer against Bristol City, he offers little threat. A 4.5m price tag seems likely given his lack of guaranteed pitch-time.

Beram Kayal (17 starts, three substitute appearances one goal and one assist)
Brighton’s Israeli international is also far from secure as a starter, having shared roles with Steve Sidwell to partner Stephens in central midfield for much of last season. With minimal goal threat and rotation hanging over him, he looks a poor Fantasy option in the Premier League.

Oliver Norwood (14 starts, 17 substitute apperances, two assists)
Another bit-part player during Brighton’s promotional push, the Northern Ireland international is set to continue to be used as back-up in central midfield.

Jamie Murphy (20 starts, 15 substitute appearanaces, two goals and three assists)
Former Motherwell left-sided winger Murphy could be a dark horse for Fantasy returns, with goals and assists in his locker.

He produced a shot every 45.0 minutes and a key pass 62.4 minutes – hardly stellar numbers but statistics that hint at some potential.

However, with almost as many substitute appearances as starts, his pitch-time is in question.

A Scotland call-up to face England at Hampden Park in June could give him the platform to prove to Hughton he should be a regular starter, but it seems likely that his opportunities will be confined to home fixtures.

Solly March (Nine starts, 16 substitute appearances, three goals and two assists)
Sussex-born March joined Brighton as a teenager in 2013, but at the age of 22 has has still not established himself as a first-team regular.

He is most likely to compete with Murphy for a left side of midfield berth in home games against weaker opposition. Despite his poor underlying statistics, he is a firm fans’ favourite and 2016/17 was seen as a breakthrough year for him by the Seagulls faithful.

Jiri Skalak (24 starts, seven substitute appearances and five assists)
He frequently shared pitch time with Murphy and March on the left side of midfield and looks far from secure as a regular starter. No goals is a major concern for suitors, and five assists from a total of 31 appearances is a poor tally to take into the top flight.

He averaged a shot every 76.6 minutes and a key pass every 48.8 minutes.

A disciplined player who will track back, he is more likely to be fielded in tough away matches next season as Hughton looks to show resilience on the road.

Anthony Knockaert (44 starts, one substitute appearance, 15 goals and eight assists)
After signing in January 2016 from Standard Liege, the former Leicester City winger became a regular in the first XI. He scored five times in his first season with the Seagulls, but it was the 2016/17 campaign where he became essential.

With 15 successful strikes and eight assists, no other midfielder in the Championship was involved in more goals – a feat that earned him the divsion’s Player of the Year award.

A four-year contract was agreed in March, so he is assured of starts and looks set to be mainly fielded on the right side of midfield, although he is sometimes asked to switch sides mid-match.

In terms of Fantasy Premier League’s bonus point system, it is worth noting that he also had a successful pass rate of 81.3% last season and he topped the ranks for both shots (106) and key passes (93).

Indeed, his rate of a shot every 35.6 minutes and a key pass every 40.5 minutes offers evidence that Knockaert will be the side’s key provider of attacking points and a major Fantasy target as a result.

A 6.0 price tag would be a likely valuation considering he is also Brighton’s set-piece taker.

Glenn Murray (39 starts, six substitute appearances, 23 goals, five assists)
With 23 successful strikes in 2016/17 and a 30% goal involvement rate, Murray has flourished in his second stint at Brighton, having joined from Bournemouth in 2016, initially on loan and then on a permanent basis.

The striker, who left the Seagulls in 2011 to join Crystal Palace, has a contract in place that takes him to the end of the 2018/19 season, which indicates he will remain for their return to top-flight football. However, age is not on his side, and at 33 he may feature from the bench far more often.

Currently, Brighton’s number one penalty taker, the veteran could be a reasonable third striker option for those looking to use a 3-5-2 formation – if he’s priced around the 5.5 mark. With eight goals for Crystal Palace and three for Bournemouth in the Premier League, he is more than capable of finding the net at the highest level.

However, Murray’s rate of a shot every 33.2 minutes is not all that impressive when you consider that Newcastle’s Dwight Gayle will return to the top level having produced an attempt every 24.4 minutes for the Magpies.

Sam Baldock (27 starts, four substitute appearances, 11 goals and four assists)
Even as the most regular partner for Murray, Baldock’s starting role is far from secure, particularly if Hughton opts for a lone striker.

Joining from Bristol City in 2014, where he scored 34 times in 83 appearances, he has failed to live up to expectations, managing just 18 goals from his 78 run-outs for the Seagulls.

A goal tally of 11 and four assists last season is reasonable for the Championship, but it seems unlikely he will get near those figures at the top level.

Producing a shot on goal every 35.2 minutes, his likely role will be as a back-up striker, or fielded alongside Murray should Hughton revert to a 4-4-2.

Tomer Hemed (20 starts, 17 substitute appearances, 11 goals, four assists)
The second Israeli international in the Brighton squad, Hemed has scored 33 times in his 81 appearances for the Seagulls since joining in 2015, but during the 2016/17 campaign, he shared pitch-time with Baldock.

Just 20 starts indicate that the 30-year-old forward will be far from an assured starter, while a possible switch to a lone striker system diminishes his appeal further.

Nevertheless, with 11 goals and four assists last campaign, he does offer the possibility of attacking returns. His current contract runs out at the end of next season and he is keen to stay with Brighton in the top flight, according to a recent interview.

The Potential Targets

Hughton has already planned ahead for a switch to a lone striker formation by recruiting German playmaker Pascal Gross from relegated Bundesliga side FC Ingolstadt 04 on a four-year deal.

Hughton has described his capture as “an attacking midfielder in a more advanced position, operating behind the forward line”.

Gross is a set-piece specialist, is likely to take the number 10 role and could even challenge Knockaert for Fantasy managers’ attention based on an impressive 2016/17 campaign. He recorded 95 chances – more than any other Bundesliga player and supplied a key pass every 27.5 minutes – a statistic bettered only by Emil Forsberg of Leipzig and Franck Ribery of Bayern Munich.

Over his 32 appearances in Germany’s top flight, Gross scored four goals and assisted a further four times.

Josh Kerr, a teenage defender from Celtic’s youth squad who can play across the back four, has been captured to join Brighton’s U23 development side. If he impresses, he may well earn starts towards the end of the season, but looks to be an investment for the future.

It has been reported that Hughton is keen to add resources in central midfield, with Manchester City’s Aaron Mooy a target. The Australian international impressed on loan at Huddersfield Town and earned a spot in the EFL Championship team of the season. If recruited, he looks the frontrunner to partner Stephens in the centre of the park.

In light of Murray’s advancing years, attacking recruits are another priority area, with Hughton reportedly eyeing up Isaiah (Izzy) Brown – another player to impress at Huddersfield in the Championship. The 20-year-old is on loan at the Terriers from Chelsea and can play as a forward or winger.

Another forward thought to be on Hughton’s radar is FC Sion’s Moussa Koante, who has racked up 33 goals in 74 starts for the Swiss side.

Today’s press has also linked the Seagulls with Eupen winger Henry Onyekuru who has produced 24 goals and 14 assists for the Belgian side this term. However, there are a host of clubs competing fiercely for the Nigerian – including Arsenal.

Almost inevitably, Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham is being strongly linked to a loan move to the south coast. Reports suggest that Brighton have permission to talk to the 19-year-old who scored 26 goals while on loan at Bristol City in the Championship last season.