FPL Player List Analysis – Premium Defenders

This evening we roll out the fourth in our series of player list articles focusing on the Fantasy Premier League game.

Having assessed the goalkeepers, budget defenders and mid-price defenders, we now turn our attention to the backline options in the top bracket – costing 6.0 and over.

Certainly, for this sort of outlay, you would expect more than just the possibility of clean sheet returns, with added goal threat and an ability to bring in bonus points also major factors to consider.

In addition, rarely – if ever – would you wish to bench such a costly pick. Rotation is therefore off the table at this price point.

While many Fantasy managers will understandably be keen to seek out budget backline options, there is still potential value to be had in the more expensive bracket.

Last season, the three top scoring defenders in FPL, Chelsea trio Gary Cahill, Marcos Alonso and Cesar Azpilicueta, all recorded at least 170 points – only eight midfielders and five forwards achieved such a feat.

With that in mind, and with the proliferation of wing-backs throughout the Premier League, the Premium defenders are enjoying something of a renaissance, with many FPL managers considering abandoning the accepted 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 tactic to start the season with a four-man backline.

Inevitably, we have to pay attention to fixtures when investing heavily in a defender.

Assessing the opening schedules, Manchester United’s Antonio Valencia has to be our among our early favoured options.

More expensive than team-mate Eric Bailly (6.5 to 6.0), the Ecuadorian faces just one of last year’s top six in the first nine Gameweeks (WHM swa LEI sto EVE sot CRY liv hud) and was utilised as a wing-back in the recent friendly win over LA Galaxy.

Valencia supplied 41 successful crosses – third among FPL defenders – and also registered 31 key passes, yet brought home a mere three assists.

Those numbers underline that he offers the greatest upside in a defence that chalked up 16 shut-outs in their first season under Jose Mourinho.

So far, though, only 6.5% have chosen to recruit Valencia, with David De Gea (27.3%) and Victor Lindelof (13.5%) proving far more popular at 5.5 apiece.

Over in the blue half of Manchester, City also have a kind opening batch of fixtures – Pep Guardiola’s side host Everton, Crystal Palace, Stoke City and Burnley and also travel to Brighton, Bournemouth, Watford and West Brom in the first 10 Gameweeks.

However, Vincent Kompany’s (6.0) ability to steer clear of injury is a major factor in our assessment of their defensive potential.

The Belgian played all but 14 minutes of the final eight fixtures of 2016/17 and delivered three goals, five clean sheets and six bonus points. If Pep Guardiola prioritises him for domestic matches to manage his fitness, we are confident that Kompany can eclipse new arrivals Kyle Walker and Benjamin Mendy (both 6.5) as the most profitable route into City’s backline.

Granted, Walker’s total of six assists was more than any other defender last term, but it remains to be seen if he’s employed in a wing-back role by Pep Guardiola.

Nonetheless, over 19.1% have snapped up Walker, while Mendy also has to be a consideration.

As our recent Scout Report revealed, Mendy’s delivery from the left flank was lauded at Monaco, and he has already talked up his ability to provide goals on his arrival at the Etihad.

However, with Mendy currently nursing an injury and with fellow new signing Danilo – priced at 5.5 – available as a rotation option, City’s full-backs both look vulnerable whereas Kompany surely plays when fit.

Six favourable matches (new BUR SWA whm hud BOU) in the first eight also strengthen Spurs’ chances of providing early returns.

Ultimately, though, Walker’s departure diminishes the appeal of his premium-priced former defensive team-mates Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld (both 6.0) along with Danny Rose (6.5), who remains an ongoing doubt with a long-term knee complaint.

Instead, the Walker transfer makes the 5.5-priced Kieran Tripper an almost irresistible prospect for points, both from clean sheets and assists.

Over 19.9% have now turned to the former Burnley man, who claimed five assists in just 12 outings last term. Meanwhile, Spurs recorded 17 clean sheets and conceded fewer goals (26) than any side in 2016/17.

It’s difficult to look beyond Trippier while Spurs continue to stall in strengthening in his position.

Across north London, having failed to claim a Champions League spot, many anticipate that Arsene Wenger will prioritise the Premier League and rest his Arsenal regulars when Europa League matches come around.

This could be good news for the Gunners’ defence as they seek to improve upon last season’s 13 clean sheets – down from 18 in 2015/16.

Laurent Koscielny, Hector Bellerin and Sead Kolasinac all come in at 6.0 apiece, with Bellerin currently the most popular of the three at 13.8% ownership.

Yet the Spaniard is arguably the least promising pick at present as he faces a battle with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain for the right wing-back berth in Arsene Wenger’s new 3-4-2-1 formation.

Indeed, Bellerin himself has recently acknowledged how Arsenal’s new system has damaged the security of his starting role.

With Koscielny suspended for the first two Gameweeks, we are currently favouring Kolasinac – who scored three goals and five assists for Schalke last season – to establish himself as the next must-have wing-back.

There are cheaper alternatives to consider at the Emirates, though, with Nacho Monreal and Shkodran Mustafi at 5.5 apiece. The latter’s 20 headed efforts on goal was ranked top for FPL defenders in 2016/17.

Arsenal’s first five home clashes (LEI BOU WBA BHA SWA) look conducive to early investment, as are trips to Stoke City and Watford in the first 10 Gameweeks.

Staying in London, Chelsea boast as many as six defenders in the premium price bracket – somewhat surprising given that they conceded more goals (33) and earned fewer clean sheets (16) than both Spurs and Man United.

When assessing their prospects this time round, the degree of rotation may ultimately determine the most secure targets now that Conte has the Champions League to consider.

It’s also worth noting that only three of the champions’ 16 shut-outs came in the final 16 Gameweeks, suggesting that the cracks were appearing in their 3-4-3 formation.

If we can discount the threat of rotation, Marcos Alonso has to be the stand-out Chelsea candidate even though he’s the most expensive defender on offer at 7.0.

The statistics highlight why.

The former Fiorentina man ranked top for shots (46), efforts in the box (25) and attempts on target (16) for defenders on his way to averaging 5.7 points per match (ppm).

While Chelsea have coveted the services of Alex Sandro from Juventus, Alonso’s role at left wing-back currently looks uncontested. If it stays that way, then he has to remain worthy of the investment with Chelsea’s testing early fixtures the only caveat (BUR tot EVE lei ARS stk MCI).

Cesar Azpilicueta (bonus potential), Gary Cahill (six goals last season) and wing-back Victor Moses – now listed as a defender – all set you back £6.5m and have their upsides.

But it’s David Luiz who is the most popular defender in the FPL game, with 21.4% ownership.

Along with new arrival Antonio Rudiger, the Brazilian is the cheapest Chelsea backline member at £6.0m. Despite scoring once last year, he placed sixth for shots (31) among defenders and could yet prove a stronger value option.

Luiz clearly has merits, but given Chelsea’s early schedule, we may need attacking returns from our Blues defender to eke out early value. Alonso is clearly the most likely to offer that.

Reclassified as a defender this time around, Liverpool’s James Milner has penalty-kick duties to strengthen his appeal as a fire-and-forget option.

Priced at 6.5, at least 1.0 more than any of Jurgen Klopp’s defensive regulars, Milner netted seven times from the spot in 2016/17 and has already converted a penalty in pre-season.

In terms of creativity, Milner boasts a considerable upside – he supplied more key passes (56) and more successful crosses (53) than any defender last season.

Despite earning just 12 clean sheets last term, he would have claimed third spot in the FPL defender listings if classified as a defender.

Essentially, then, like Chelsea’s Alonso, Milner could play huge part in our seasons if he can avoid rotation, though the acquisition of Andrew Robertson (5.0) clearly makes that unlikely.

Milner is currently troubled by a thigh injury which will see him possibly miss Liverpool’s next two friendly encounters. While we expect him to be fit and start as the Reds’ first choice left-back, we are also anticipating that Robertson will go on to make between six-10 starts as Klopp perhaps rotates around European fixtures.

Elsewhere on Merseyside, Everton pair Leighton Baines (6.0) and the injured Seamus Coleman (6.5) also boast lofty price tags.

With Coleman stuck on the sidelines and the Toffees set to face Man City, Chelsea, Spurs and Man United in the first five, many will be side-stepping their defensive regulars until the schedules smiles on them from Gameweek 6.

At that point, the likes of Michael Keane (5.5) and goalkeeper Jordan Pickford (5.0) look likely to emerge as routes into a rearguard which claimed 13 shut-outs in 2016/17.