Opinion

The Knee Jerk – Gameweek 3 – Sunday

This was meant to be the day that would see talent from the north London clubs cause tremors in the Fantasy Premier League ranks and market place. Instead, both Spurs and Arsenal fell flat – to varying degrees of disaster.

Harry Kane had the opportunity to transform the Fantasy Football landscape. Not only could he have buried the August goal hoodoo, but he could also have delivered points for the 16.1% who captained him to capitalise on the failings of others – including Romelu Lukaku’s zero point score.

Once again he blanked. Once again the numbers he produced defied belief.

Kane had ten attempts on goal, seven from inside the box. For the second match running, he has surpassed his personal record for the number of shots in a single Premier League match without scoring.

This season Kane has fired just 25% of his efforts on target with a zero conversion rate. His rates for both in 2016/17 were 52% and 26% respectively.

According to certain statistical models, he should have 2.5 goals by now. But he hasn’t. He’s got nothing, and he’s being ushered out of FPL squads at a pace.

To compound matters, both Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata and Roberto Firmino of Liverpool provided goal and assist returns with maximum bonus to overtake Lukaku in the forward standings.

They provide an obvious exit route for those left feeling decidedly uneasy about Kane’s extraordinary three-match drought.

Dismissing talk of the August “curse”, there is perhaps another reason behind this sorry spell: maybe Spurs really are destined to struggle at Wembley.

We have just two “home” matches to go on – the first against the champions Chelsea, while it should also be noted that Spurs only edged out Burnley 2-1 at White Hart Lane last season.

However, there is building momentum behind the theory that Mauricio Pochettino’s men could lack intensity and that sides will raise their game on visiting Wembley.

With Swansea City and Bournemouth the next two opponents due to arrive, we will surely have more evidence soon. Falter against that pair, and our confidence in Kane and Spurs’ other key assets – Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli – will plummet.

While it’s a testing trip to Everton to come next, those forthcoming home fixtures, coupled with the unfeasible and record-breaking numbers – may convince many Kane owners to sit on their hands, even when faced with cheaper and more profitable temptations.

Spurs toiled, but their suffering pales in significance next to the cataclysmic display delivered by Arsenal at Anfield.

Like Kane, Alexis Sanchez had the opportunity to put Fantasy managers in a spin. Instead, he played a 60-minute role in a farcical Gunners performance which may actually transpire to be his last for the club.

It remains to be seen if Sanchez stays in the Premier League to be a factor in our season. For now, he played his part in making Liverpool’s attacking assets seem irresistible, as the aforementioned Firmino pulled the strings for both Sadio Mane and Mo Salah to step up with further hauls.

It appears that there is still one thing we can all rely on as Fantasy managers: Liverpool will present us with the dilemma of putting many attacking eggs in a single basket.

With Kane – our most bankable scorer currently defying all odds to misfire – perhaps we should just embrace that “problem”.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

4,192 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Game of Stones
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    Mane - Firmino - Salah

    Do we think all of them will start against Man City? They're all travelling far for internationals + they've got CL coming up.

    1. Syd.
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      I would be very surprised if they don't start

    2. laplana
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Mane and Salah biggest doubts as they come back latest iirc.

    3. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Depends when they come back.

    4. Gargamel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      yes

  2. Markus
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 9 months ago

    What are people's views on chalobah vs any other 4.5m mid (already got Carroll)? Seems like decent underlying stats (for the price) and pretty nailed

    1. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Good 4.5m option

    2. @persecuted_by_mods
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Got my eye on him, Marco Silva is a very good manager

        1. Markus
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Cool, i need to ship out gross and nobody else particularly inspires under 5.5m atm so that seems like as good a bet as any

    3. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Any opinions on this, How does this wc team look?

      Foster Elliot
      Bertrand Cedric Jones schindler 4.0
      Mkhi Salah Eriksen alli Carroll
      Luka Firmino Hernandez

      1. Mcgugan
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Like it a lot - personally I wouldn't have 2 SOTON defense (Bertrand to Trippier?) but very good aside.

    4. michudagawd
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 9 months ago

      Foster Elliot
      Bertrand Jones Suttner Lowe Long
      KDB Alli Pogba Brady Carroll
      Lukaku Jesus Firmino

      1 FT, nothing itb.

      Team is in pretty good shape but KDB probably needs to go. Thinking Antonio in as West Ham's fixtures are decent and he seems to be the focal point of their attack. They're playing awfully though so that's a concern. Any feedback would be appreciated.

      1. PL Ball
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Would wait on Antonio. WHU look awful at the moment.

        Perhaps Mane?

        1. michudagawd
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Yeah maybe but Liverpool have City away next and he has a lot of travelling to do over the next few weeks. Maybe double Spurs midfield with Eriksen?

    5. @persecuted_by_mods
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Have two frees but have no idea what to do with Fraser. Will he drop .2 or even .3? I'd take .1 on the chin as there could be injuries during the break and I'd rather have more info

      • Fuchs Mane Kante
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Wildcard Mark.
        Kane needs to drop atleast 0.tree.

      • Roys Peak
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        what to do with RLC?

      • FPL Maldini
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        If I am not going to own Kane do I get...

        a) Alli

        b) Eriksen

        c) Try get both but one less Liverpool player

        1. Champione
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          50/50. Prefer Eriksen but Alli suspended for first 3 CL games

      • RichieW
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        A) Bellerin Mane Chicha Abraham

        B) Cedric RLC Firmino Morata

        1. Champione
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          B

        2. La vida FPL
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          B easy

        3. RichieW
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks guys

      • Sonny “The Hitman&rdq…
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        Morataaaaas!

      • Champione
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        WC this lot to get a more balanced team and Liverpool attack? 1 FT, 1.0 ITB

        Forster Elliot
        Alonso Kompany Bertrand PVA Mee
        Eriksen Mkhi Ritchie Atsu Carroll
        Kane Lukaku McBurnie

        1. Pooodle
          • 15 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Definitely not.

          1. Champione
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Cheers

      • Pooodle
        • 15 Years
        6 years, 9 months ago

        There seems to be a disconnect with Kane between people focussing on total number of shots and his expected returns. As we see every year, total number of shots does not equal number of goals or lead to a specific figure for goals. Look at Coutinho and Eriksen who every year have significantly more shots than anyone else without top scoring.

        The key statistic has to be big chances. Members will be able to see that despite having 10 more shots than anyone else, Kane hasn't had more big chances and is level with the likes of Benteke and Welbeck as well as Jesus and Aguero.

        That explains why he's not run away with the goal scoring charts so far, despite having so many shots.

        1. @persecuted_by_mods
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Lack of Rose and Walker really hampering Spurs imo, think people are forgetting how good they were because Bavies and Trippier are decent

            1. Pooodle
              • 15 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              That's very true - they haven't had proper wingers for a while now so need that pace from the fullbacks. Trippier and Davies don't have that in anywhere near the same amount.

          • Champione
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            From the eye test I've seen Kane had more than enough big chances 😉 Agree with lots of your arguments though

            1. Pooodle
              • 15 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              Eye test is obviously important - and even on the conventional test of the big chances statistic he shouldn't have had 3 blanks in a row. But the lack of big chances show he's not unlucky to not have scored loads.

              1. Champione
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 9 months ago

                I think it's more the fact that people expect a player of his quality to be more efficient in front of the goal than the likes of Benteke and Welbeck

                1. Pooodle
                  • 15 Years
                  6 years, 9 months ago

                  You would certainly like to think so!

                  1. Champione
                    • 8 Years
                    6 years, 9 months ago

                    hopefully he'll come good after int break!

          • Frip
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            He's sitting on 2.55 xG. That takes into account the quality of a chance by considering distance/angle to goal, strong/weak foot, and such. Eriksen and Coutinho shoot with high volumes from outside the box. That's not the case with Kane, as he's had 7 shots from inside the box just today.
            Big chances or not, he is overwhelmingly underperforming.

            1. Pooodle
              • 15 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              Completely agree - I guess my point really brings you out in the position that he should have had way more big chances for that number of shots. Something is going wrong having 24 shots and no goals.

              1. Frip
                • 11 Years
                6 years, 9 months ago

                Right 24 shots and no goals is a ludicrous. Let's break down his expected goals by the outcome of his shots:

                Goal: 0
                Post: 0.53 xG
                Saved: 1.04 xG
                Blocked: 0.64 xG
                Missed target: 0.34 xG
                Total: 2.55

                The majority of his shots have been on target – he's just been highly unlucky in terms of saves and woodwork. Compare this to Lukaku's xG breakdown:

                Goal: 1.45 xG
                Post: 0 xG
                Saved: 0.86 xG (the penalty is 0.76 alone)
                Blocked: 0.46 xG
                Missed target: 0.24 xG
                Total: 3.01

                If you take out the penalty for Lukaku, the main difference lies in the shots that are saved or hit the woodwork. Do Kane's shots seem "weaker" this year? If so -> then there might be a long-term underlying problem. If not, I'm looking at buying Kane after the price drops.

          • Spag Bolasie
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Sorry I had simplified. The key stat is expected goals, that quantifies the chance of each shot. Big chances isn't a great judge on strikers, its a much better stat for midfielders.

        2. Think
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Lost on last page
          Most of regular FPL players activates there wildcard in international break due to transfer made in wildcard price changes slow down. If I remember correctly than that was the case last time.

          So what's your thinking about price drop of big name players during these two weeks.

        3. FPL Maldini
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Choose one....

          A) Tadic

          b) Richarlison

          1. Man Getting Hit By Football
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            B

          2. Legohair
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            A

          3. RichieW
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            B

        4. internal error
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Is it a bad idea to transfer out Kane and take a hit to replace a mid then bring in Kane for gw5, after his price drops?

          1. OldBenKenobi
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            your basically taking a hit to avoid a price drop on the most expensive player in the game (he can literally be replaced with anyone). Not smart imo

            1. internal error
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              I think he blanks away to Everton as well

          2. KingNidge
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Depends how important .1 or .2 is to you. Its arguably a waste of 2 transfers.

            1. internal error
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              With Sanchez, and Hazard looming, price drops could be detrimental

              1. KingNidge
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 9 months ago

                Your call mate

        5. Ozzy smith
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Think I'm gonna do Kane > Laca then swap back in gw5. Laca(c) at home to bournemouth looks tasty, esp with limited captain options gw4.
          Any thoughts?

          1. Think
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Laca didn't start today.

            1. Ozzy smith
              • 9 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              I'm fully aware, you think after that result wenger will bench him against bournemouth? no chance

        6. OldBenKenobi
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Kane is absolutely free falling on fplstatistics....
          Already made a transfer therefore Im riding this drop out

        7. goriuanx
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Points > team value.

          1. OldBenKenobi
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            and "points mean prizes" 😉

          2. KingNidge
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Nidgey taking the fook da maywedders league by storm

            1. goriuanx
              • 13 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              Cracking start mate fair play

              1. KingNidge
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 9 months ago

                Sold bobby this week though which was a blunder. Like chica for next week then bob must return.

            2. Syd.
              • 15 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              I am on your tail 😎

              1. KingNidge
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 9 months ago

                Seen that sydney solid start by you

                1. Syd.
                  • 15 Years
                  6 years, 9 months ago

                  Yeah cracking start by you Nidge. I will close the gap once I've got rid of those 2 City wasters I have

          3. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            You say that... but I lost 0.1 on Jesus. Now I have 0.9 in the bank rather than 1.0, which is an annoying difference.

          4. Tinydancer
            • 10 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            True but team value = points ..... in terms that players with a higher price usually score more

        8. internal error
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Think Man City vs liverpool could be good for both sets of attackers. Does anyone know who and where Brazil are playing next week?

          1. Champione
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Tuesday September 5th against Colombia

        9. okiwatevs
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Spent hours of planning and tweaking the 2 first gameweeks and ended up at a rank om 2.8mn overall.

          This week I was busy and didn't use any of my 2 free transfers, didn't even bother to sell Zaha. Now I'm 880k overall.

          Casuals always win!

        10. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Hmm. Not sure I should have wildcarded...

          But I did have...

          - Kane (Please leave)
          - Kolasinac (Luiz or someone is better)
          - Ramsey (Subbed early, rotation risk)
          - Willian (drop risk with Hazard)
          - Jesus (I think Morata is better value - less rotation risk)
          - Mee (sold to Naughton)
          - Other minor tweaks.

          Ah well. Need to get the team in shape for the next few months. Had a rough start.

        11. Gríma Wormtongue
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Should I Wildcard?

          Foster // Elliot

          Alonso // Kolasinac // Jones // Stephens // 4.0

          KDB // Mkhi // JWP // Carroll // RLC

          Kane // Lukaku // Chicharito

        12. KLOPPTOMANIA
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Ffs missed Ritchie dropping to 5.9.

          Do I bin him now, or Willian, or Gabbi - or all 3?

          1. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Maybe after intl Break Better off with some players off a bit of form than injured ones plus hits

            1. KLOPPTOMANIA
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 9 months ago

              Interesting angle tbf

              1. GreennRed
                • 12 Years
                6 years, 9 months ago

                I have a 2nd team to try and stop triggerfingers. But it's better than my linked one 🙁

        13. sambyy
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          What would you do with this team? I think it's a decent team, just not delivering right now.

          Foster Elliot
          Kompany Davies Stephens Mee
          Eriksen Salah Ramsey Ritchie Carroll
          Kane Lukaku Rodriguez

          A) Kompany -> Jones or Naughton
          B) Ramsey -> ???
          C) Kompany + Ramsey -> Naughton + Mkhi for -4

          Also, Ramsey will fall before next gw. If I transfer him out should I do it early to avoid the drop or play it safe?

        14. OldBenKenobi
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          and what if Kane scores a hat-trick with England during IB? What will people do then? Ask yourself that....

          1. OldBenKenobi
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Guy is so determined to score. He wants a hat-trick of golden boots and I want him around when he gets it!

          2. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            See if Poch signs the England squad....

          3. Eton Rifles
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Malta + Slovakia?

            lmao

          4. FDMS All Starz
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Bring him back in for a -4...

        15. FPL Maldini
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          A part of me is thinking of going for Alli instead of Eriksen for some reason

          1. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Probably 'recentlyscoredlooksgoodthisgwitis'

          2. Gargamel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            He's better, do it

          3. KingNidge
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Would the reason be he scored today and eriksen didnt by any chance

          4. Think
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Listen to it.

          5. Champione
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Alli being suspended for first 3 CL games is a good reason

        16. diesel001
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          I see Ville Ronka has already made a transfer.

          1. Eton Rifles
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            kane out?

          2. Chenku╰☆╮
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            whats his id? hof not updated..

              1. Chenku╰☆╮
                • 9 Years
                6 years, 9 months ago

                cheers

          3. OldBenKenobi
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            possible WC?

        17. HerbyCR
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Hi guys,

          Bailly or Jones? Is it worth it to pay the extra money for Bailly or is te better to use it any where else?

          Gracias amigos!

          1. Gargamel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            I'd always go for the cheap option in that situation

        18. Man Getting Hit By Football
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          Just pulled the trigger on Gabbi -> Firmino. Good to go?

          Foster, Elliot
          Kolasinac, Stephens, Jones, Suttner, (Long)
          Salah, Pogba, Ramsey, (Albrighton, Carroll)
          Kane, Lukaku, Firmino

          1. The Fed
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Kolasinac didnt play today
            Stephens is a doubt with Hoedt and VVD potentially playing
            Ramsey subbed at half today

          2. The Fed
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            Would still wait with WC though, as you can hope Kola plays if Oxlade is sold and you got Suttner who can play instead of Stephens.

        19. Rajveer
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 9 months ago

          A) D.Silva + Abraham
          Or
          B) Firmino + Mooy

          1. Gargamel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 9 months ago

            B