Scout Report – Guido Carrillo

Southampton have finally started to splash the cash from Virgil van Dijk’s switch to Liverpool, bringing in striker Guido Carrillo on a club-record deal from AS Monaco.

Arriving for a reported £19m, the 26-yeard-old has signed on at St Mary’s until 2021 and reunites with Mauricio Pellegrino, having played under the Saints boss while at Argentinian outfit Estudiantes.

After penning his contract on Thursday evening, the new arrival
explained what he’ll bring to the Southampton attack.

“I am someone that will give my all, try my hardest and do whatever is asked of me by the manager. I am an attacking player than can lead the line and bring others into play. I like to be active in and around the box to put away chances which for strikers is clearly the most important thing”.

The History

Joining Estudiantes as a youngster, Carrillo progressed through the club’s youth system before being handed a senior debut in 2011.

Standing six foot two, he went on to make 116 league appearances over the space of four seasons, serving up 26 goals and five assists, prior to moving to Monaco in the summer of 2015.

Having made 15 of his 31 outings in the starting XI in his first year, producing four goals and two assists, Carrillo fell behind the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Edinson Cavani in the pecking order last term.

He was named on the teamsheet just five times – with a further 14 appearances off the bench – producing seven goals and an assist on his side’s way to the French title.

Despite Mbappe’s summer move to PSG, Carrillo’s pitch-time was again restricted – although he featured 16 times, the target man was named in the XI in just two of those encounters. As a result, he arrives in the Premier League with just four goals to his name this term.

In terms of internationals, he has yet to represent Argentina at any level in his career.

The Prospects

Southampton’s need for more firepower up front looks essential to their prospects of survival.

Pellegrino’s men have slipped into the bottom three on the back of a run that has seen them fail to win any of their last 11 league matches, scoring more than a single goal just once – away to Watford – over that stretch.

With their top scorer, Charlie Austin, sidelined through a long-term hamstring injury, neither Shane Long nor Manolo Gabbiadini has been able to step up in the six-goal striker’s enforced absence.

Long has netted once all season, while the Italian has scored on three occasions but clearly hasn’t convinced Pellegrino – after starting eight of the opening 11 Gameweeks, he’s been named on the teamsheet just twice in the subsequent 13.

Providing that he’s fully match fit, the Argentine looks set to be installed as Southampton’s lone forward as Pellegrino attempts to steer them safety.

As the statistics above show, Carrillo has been far from prolific in his career to this point, yet a delve into his underlying numbers offers the Saints reason for optimism.

He converted 35% of his league attempts last term and 30.8% this season – essentially, that’s 11 goals from 33 efforts over a total of 1,002 Ligue 1 minutes across the last two French top-flight campaigns, albeit in a free-scoring team.

A target man with clever off-the-ball-movement – particularly in and around the box – Carrillo is a somewhat belated replacement for Graziano Pelle up front.

He does, however, lack the pace and mobility to run in behind defences, suggesting that the Saints will be relying on his aerial ability to make a difference.

Indeed, Carrillo has won 57% of his headed duels in Ligue 1 this season – that’s far superior to Long (38.1%) and Gabbiadini (25.6%), with the injured Austin Southampton’s next best striker on 43.6%.

All 11 of his goals over the last two seasons have arrived inside the opposition box, with seven of them – including all four in the current campaign – converted with his head.

The Saints have clearly struggled for a cutting edge in the air – they’ve scored just five headers, with Austin’s three their chief source.

That could prove a very timely weapon for a side that side fourth for crosses (502) in 2017/18 – all the more so bearing in mind that the Saints have netted just five headed attempts.

Priced at 6.5 in Fantasy Premier League and 9.7 in the Sky Sports game, Carrillo’s arrival could, therefore, see Fantasy managers assess those Saints players who boast a considerable delivery from out wide.

Pellegrino’s need for full-backs to provide width in his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation means that Ryan Bertrand and Cedric Soares have both supplied 78 crosses – that’s joint-sixth among defenders.

Their steady supply looks vital for the new boy to hit the ground running, though it may be James Ward-Prowse that emerges as the main beneficiary.

Having recently established himself as a regular under Pellegrino, he has started six of the last seven Gameweeks, taking 25 of their 38 corners over that run, with seven successful.

Indeed, Ward-Prowse supplied at least three times the numbers of crosses (42) than any team-mate from Gameweek 18 onwards, with Dusan Tadic (14) his nearest rival.

The upcoming schedule smiles kindly on Carrillo’s prospects as a potential budget-friendly striker for our three-man frontlines.

As always with new arrivals, keeping a watching brief on his impact is best-advised.

Nonetheless, with the Saints set to face six of their relegation rivals in the next eight (BHA wba STK new swa whu), this upcoming window looks likely to prove their most profitable period for attacking returns before the schedule turns against them in Gameweek 32.

Further Reference

Guido Carrillo Wikipedia

Guido Carrillo TransferMarkt Page

Guido Carrillo YouTube Highlights