Playing It Safe

This Pre-Season is different

It’s not different because of the optimism that it might be coming home, or the unusual hot British summer, or even Mo Salah’s must-have/must-leave price decision; instead, this year is different because there are many added complications.

The World Cup Impact

With so many FPL players left in the World Cup, Spurs (9), Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea (7) and Liverpool (4), it’s hard to know whether or not they should be included in our initial squad selections, as they might well be afforded some sort of summer break having had little after the end of the Premier League season. To try and gain some insight, I have looked at the most relevant recent competition, Euro 2016; the final was between Portugal and France.

In the final, Arsenal had two players representing France that were in their squad, Koscielny and Giroud. Whether you would have considered them for your FPL team or not is not important, as all we are trying to establish is when they returned, to give us some direction as to what we can expect following the World Cup. Koscielny was the first to return to the starting line-up, but that wasn’t until Gameweek 3 away to Watford on 27 August. Giroud made the bench.

Sagna at Man City and Lloris at Spurs were also in the final at Euro 2016. Sagna was afforded even more time off, returning after the first International break in the Manchester derby on 10 September. Lloris was the exception, probably a bit more understandable as a keeper, as he started the first game of the season.

Crucially, it’s important to note that the Euro 2016 final was a full 5 days earlier than the World Cup final is (15 July), so there is even less time for player to recuperate before the Premier League season begins. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if at least some of those 34 players mentioned above, plus Pickford, Maguire, and Vardy, don’t return to full action until after at least Gameweek 3 and possibly even after the International Break.

Recommendation: proceed with caution when selecting players still involved in the World Cup.

New Managers

West Ham, Arsenal, and Everton all have new managers entering the new season. West Ham have so far been very active in the transfer market and Pellegrini is starting to shape his squad in the way he wants it.

That brings me to Marko Arnautovic, who was verging on must have in the second half of last season when he was moved forward, equalling his best ever goal return of 11 despite much less playing time overall. At £7.0m many are considering him a must pick as a third striker. I’m going to wait and see. We have no idea yet how Pellegrini plans to use him; maybe he has other ideas up top or simply does not view Marko as an out and out striker. It also seems that West Ham don’t yet plan to stop buying.

Emery at Arsenal has been much talked about and the 5 year deal for Chambers is very interesting. Who Emery deploys, and in which formation, is going to be worth observing but I can’t help but think that whilst Arsenal supporters are embracing the change, it will be a case of wait and see. Apparently chosen as his approach is similar to Mr. Wenger, some of the signings, mainly defensive, will take time to bed in and are players we don’t know too much about. The attack could be unleashed though and there are plenty of options; any of the quintet of Ozil, Mkhitariyan, Lacazette, and Aubameyang could have stellar seasons and seem a safer bet than the defenders at this point. Even Ramsey if he can stay fit enough could be an informed selection.

Everton under-achieved last season and Marco Silva could give them a new lease on life. Like Arsenal though, despite the pricing which reflects last season’s performance, I’m staying clear of the defence for now despite fixtures as Marco’s teams are not known for their defensive set up. Also like Arsenal, there might be some midfielders or forwards worth looking at.

Asian Games

Don’t forget the Asian games are on soon. I’ve seen many teams with Son Heung-Min in the line up thinking that is a great way in with Kane and Alli still at the World Cup. He will likely miss at least the first month of the season and then might be given a later summer break, so it is entirely feasible he won’t return to action until mid-late September or even October. Who will take his spot? Will it go to Lamela or will it be a rotation of players?

Recommendation: don’t forget to do your research.

In Conclusion

Though it’s early and teams might still be on auto-pick mode, Salah is owned by about 50% of managers. Add to that the excitement of the World Cup, the abundance of mid-range talent, the Asian games, new managers, and the normal complications of new players and new teams to the PL and, for me, this is one of the most exciting FPL pre-seasons in many years.

With all the complications mentioned above, the strategy I’m going to employ to start the FPL season could be described as boring and safe. A non-risk approach of trusted FPL players not impacted by the World Cup, from stable teams that we know about, will hopefully give me a stable start that doesn’t leave me having to chase after a few gameweeks.

Recommendation: be your own person, choose emotions or algorithms, and decide whether or not to follow the herd.