Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Lacazette can match Aubameyang output

The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Post a Comment
  1. NUFCAndrew
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Is TAA too much of a risk to warrant 1m less than Robbo/VVD?

    1. slove
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Depends on what other punts you have in your team, if he is nailed he is good value - if he is not nailed he's a waste of money

    2. Painter
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I watched the last Liverpool friendly he look great. Had quite a few shots and was attacking most of the game. Made me pick him

    3. AriseSirGiggsy
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      He’s not nailed, and the kinds of player who might come on as sub so I’d avoid for now

  2. jai1212
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    I think I'm ready with my final draft. Is Man Utd bias very clear?

    Foster (Patricio)
    Luiz/Robertson/Cook
    Sanchez/BSilva/Salah/Jota/Mkhi
    Aguero/King

    Subs - Kamara/WB/Cedric

    1. Bumbaclot
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Oh my god yea all those united players!

    2. AriseSirGiggsy
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      1 player?
      If Bailly is passsd fit I might have 3!

  3. LloristheHounds
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    A) Sanchez and zaha
    Or
    B) Aubameyang and 6.5mid

    Really want a chelsea player thoughts?

    1. Sharkytect
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A

  4. YodaSolar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Eriksen + Fernandinho

    or

    B Silva + Willian

    1. slove
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Wouldn't get Fernandinho. Also wouldn't get Willian until i knew whether he was nailed on in the new system

  5. ToyBlader
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Daniels and Holebas nailed?

    1. slove
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Daniels will lose his place

    2. Michelle Davin
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Daniels for the first 2 to 3 games yes.rather go smith

      1. ToyBlader
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        What about Steve cook? or is smith better?

        1. Michelle Davin
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 8 months ago

          Smith.cook has competition from Francis

  6. Kippers
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Best budget keeper to free up funds.

    Got Hart at mo

    Patricio, maybe Fab?

    1. slove
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Are you going to rotate 2 4.5s or have one 4.5 and one 4.0?

  7. Kevin McCallister
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    What's the deal with Schlupp guys? Who is he competing with for the that midfield spot?

  8. The_Colonel
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Daily Fantasy Football - With Yahoo now closed to UK players, are there any other decent daily fantasy games out there?

    1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Yahoo must be taking data seriously then.

  9. F4L
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Pep better not rotate Bilva.

    1. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Lol

    2. Chockky
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      he wont, he just put him as keeper now 😉

  10. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Best 5.5 FWD from GWK2 onwards Ings or Jimenez?

    1. WVA
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Hopefully Ings

  11. Adro3
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    How many 'punts' (below 5% ownership) in your starting XI? 2 for me

    1. The_Colonel
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      3

    2. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Hmm .... 6

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        in my squad inc subs

    3. slove
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      One nailed on start in Luiz. Another in my rotating GKs in Foster

      1. Mauricios Cappuccino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Luiz is nailed?

        1. slove
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 8 months ago

          I meant nailed on in my team haha, whereas Foster will come in and out.

          But I think Luiz is fairly nailed , Sarri seems to love him

    4. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Only 2 :eek, back to drawing board...

    5. tiger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      3

  12. WVA
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    A. Zaha Shaw
    B. King PVA

  13. The Yorkshire Pirlo
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Not had Firmino and Richarlison in any drafts and yet I find myself with both on deadline day.

    1. Michelle Davin
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      haha me too.easy fixtures just do it for me!

  14. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    A) Jota & Sanchez
    B) BSilva & Mane

  15. arndff_
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Which pair do you prefer and why?

    a) Mendy and TAA
    b) Stones and Robertson
    c) Neither

    1. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A!
      Mendy will be the new Alonso
      Trent incredible value over Rob

      1. The Royal Robin
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Robertson is more nailed though.

        1. william prunier
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 8 months ago

          Not much in it

    2. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      CAB

    3. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I have Mendy and Robbo 😉

  16. aydeepee69
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    What do u reckon?

    A) Rich
    or
    B) Tosun

  17. johnnybeefcake
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Interested to hear what some of your team names are

    1. Dannyb
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Your mum's Zohore

      1. Podge
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        😆

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      San Diego Pisstakers

    3. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Hakuna Morata

    4. Obi-1 Kenobi-0
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Obi-Wan Kenobi-Nil

  18. leovesole
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Almost done. Thoughts?

    A. Zaha/Arna 3-4-3
    B. Mkhi 3-5-2

    1. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A

  19. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Hello everyone,

    Just signed up as a member after lurking towards the end of last season.

    Just used the RMT feature and have a couple questions :

    1. What sort of number should I be aiming at? Gw1 I have 59.92.

    2. Is this why so many teams are similar? I notice that my pick of gylfi does worse than richarlison, obviously for more money. Is that why so many people have this player, who I think is still a bit of a punt, over fpl legend gylfi? And also why there seem to be so many more mane teams than firmino ones? Or am I just bad at picking 😉

    1. slove
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      He is no more of a punt that Gylfi. Gyfli scored and assisted less than Richardson last season - granted he played less minutes. Richarlison seems to have all the factors lining up for him in that Silva was determined to get him so he will probably make him his main man, he's rested (which was a large part of his drop off last year) and he has proven he can score points under Silva - whereas with all the new signings we aren't entirely sure what Siggy's role will be.

      With regards to Mane vs Firmino , i think Mane is preferred as people weren't certain Firmino would be back in time and are scared that Sturridge's form could eat some of his minutes. Likewise i think it's to do with the options in their positions , it is easy to move slightly up or down from Mane to KDB, Mahrez, Eriksen etc. Whereas with Firmino you either have to go significantly up to Aguero/Aub or significantly down to Arnie/Zaha

      1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        That's really useful, thank you!

    2. Pasqualinho
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I think it’s fair to say that the RMT tool is as in accurate now as it will be all season. That’s not a criticism of it, just my belief that it needs some current season trends to improve its usefulness.

      1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Okay that's helpful to know. Thank you.

  20. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Which one?

    A. BSilva + Firmino (and maybe later BSilva to Mkhi/Jota/Maddison...)

    B. Zaha + Mane

    Thanks.

  21. Demel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Any reason why the lack of love for Raul Jiminez?

  22. MK90
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    I'm all sorted except my Man City midfield option. B. Silva or Sane?

    1. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Neither

      1. MK90
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        This is what I'm thinking now

    2. Dannyb
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I can't look past Bilva at the moment.

  23. welshyoo
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Jiminez from WOlves nailed?

    have him at the moment but feel iffy about it

  24. bordalo1
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Need your help plz

    A. Lacazete + Fraser

    B. King + Sigurdsson

    Thanks

    1. bordalo1
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      My mids are

      Salah Bilva neves Milivojevic

      My attack is

      Aguero firmino

  25. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    What are the FPL numbers of the FFS team so we can check their teams later?

  26. Drumlicious
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Pickford Speroni
    Robbo Mendy Cedric Cook Bednarak
    Salah B Silva Richarlison Fraser Stephens
    Auba Aguero Arnie

    How am I looking? Have the Firmino fear at the moment.

  27. Hart-ake
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Tomkins or Cedric?

    1. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Tomkins

  28. paul1964
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Greetings. I don't have DDG but want a Man Utd defender - who do you suggest?

    1. Dannyb
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Bailly I reckon

  29. rodog
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Baily or Mina

    King or Ings as third striker

  30. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Is Guaita CPAL's first choice?