The FPL Digest: Vardy annual, missing Mendy and miserly Magpies

The Digest returns as we take our weekly look back at a player, team and discussion point that attracted our interest in the Gameweek 6 matches.

Jamie Vardy delivered a goal and an assist against Huddersfield Town as Leicester City’s run of excellent fixtures kicked off with a 3-1 win.

Newcastle United recorded a second clean sheet of the season in their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace and their fixtures are about to take a turn for the better over the next three months, piquing our interest in their budget backline.

We also ponder what on earth to do with Benjamin Mendy…

The Player – Jamie Vardy

James Maddison‘s (£6.8m) ever-growing popularity in the Fantasy community saw the Leicester midfielder break through the 10% ownership barrier in FPL this week after scoring back-to-back league goals.

Maddison’s form and price has attracted plenty of suitors in recent weeks, particularly given the struggles of other notable assets in the mid-price midfield bracket – namely Theo Walcott (£6.6m), Pedro (£6.7m) and Henrikh Mkhitaryan (£7.0m).

Leicester’s fixtures over the next nine Gameweeks are hugely appealing and the Foxes indeed sit top of our Season Ticker over that spell, with only Arsenal – whose defence remains suspect – to face of the “big six” clubs.

Doubts remain over Leicester’s defence with ten goals conceded and only one clean sheet recorded but having plundered 11 goals in their six league matches this season, there is plenty of encouragement for the Foxes’ more attack-minded assets.

Are we, then, unfairly overlooking Jamie Vardy‘s (£8.9m) appeal between now and early December?

The Leicester striker has been involved in at least 21 league goals in each of his last three seasons with the 2015/16 title winners and Harry Kane (£12.9m) was the only FPL forward who finished with more points in the campaign just gone.

Rotation isn’t much of an issue, either: Vardy started 37 of Leicester’s 38 league fixtures last season, only missing the New Year’s Day win over Huddersfield through injury.

Leicester’s underlying attacking stats as a team are somewhat underwhelming this season: the Foxes sit 13th for attempts on goal, 17th for shots in the box and joint-12th for big chances.

Those mediocre attacking key performance indicators (KPIs) were also present last season, however: Claude Puel’s side ranking 12th, 11th and 8th for the three categories listed above. Vardy nevertheless still finished the season with 20 league goals to his name.

Making the most of limited opportunities is what Vardy does: his goal conversion rate of 28.2% last season was second only to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.8m) among regular starters in attack and Vardy is the only FPL forward to have found the back of the net with more than 20% of his shots in each of his last three completed Premier League campaigns.

Vardy’s goal conversion rate of 16.7% in 2018/19 is actually down on his norm but we can surely expect that average to rise over the coming months given the calibre of his finishing in recent seasons.

Only Aleksandar Mitrovic (£7.0m) had more attempts on goal than Vardy in Gameweek 6, with six of the Leicester man’s seven efforts coming from inside the Huddersfield box.

That Vardy is averaging a chance every 22.7 minutes this season also bodes well for his goalscoring prospects during Leicester’s forthcoming run of good fixtures: that rate of opportunities has improved by 69% on last season.

Vardy’s personal KPIs are up almost across the board on 2017/18, with his minutes-per-penalty box touch, shot in the opposition area, key pass and shot on target averages outstripping the figures he posted last season.

Vardy’s minutes-per-shot on target average this season is also better than all other FPL forwards with more than two league starts to their name.

While incorporating a second premium forward (albeit a relatively low-priced one) will prove a problem for many FPL managers given the outlay needed for attractive assets in other positions, those considering ditching the likes of Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) or Sadio Mane (£10.0m) to free up some funds may wish to consider Vardy as a sensible differential striking option: the Leicester forward currently sits in just 4.1% of FPL squads.

The Team – Newcastle United

Leicester’s next opponents are Newcastle United, who have allowed more shots on goal than all bar four teams this season. Only three sides have conceded more attempts on goal from inside their own box, too.

Those statistics mask their relatively sound defensive displays this season, however.

Newcastle rank joint-tenth for fewest big chances conceded in 2018/19, despite having played four of last season’s top six in the opening half-dozen Gameweeks. Only four sides have allowed fewer shots on target meanwhile.

In the two fixtures that the Magpies have contested against sides outside of the “big six”, Rafael Benitez’s troops have kept clean sheets on both occasions. In those two matches (away games at Cardiff City and Crystal Palace) the north-east club have conceded only four shots on target and three big chances.

The shut-out at Selhurst Park on Saturday means that United have now kept as many clean sheets away from home as they did in the whole of last season and underscores the defensive improvements the Magpies have made since Gameweek 20 of 2017/18: in the second half of last season, only three clubs conceded fewer goals than Benitez’s side (18).

That Manchester City had to rely on a long-distance effort from Kyle Walker (£6.5m) to win their meeting with the Magpies at the Etihad is testament to the rearguard effort Benitez’s side put in there, while Chelsea had to wait until the last quarter of an hour of their victory on Tyneside before breaching the United defence through a penalty-kick and an own-goal.

Headed chances remain a weakness for the Magpies: only Southampton have allowed more this season and all three of the big chances that Newcastle conceded in those aforementioned fixtures against Cardiff and Crystal Palace were headers.

Their opposition had a collective 89 headed attempts on goal last season, meanwhile, the third-highest total in the division.

The reason we highlight the Magpies’ defensive aptitude (and weaknesses) is that Benitez’s side sit top of our Season Ticker for the next 12 Gameweeks, with Manchester United (a week on Saturday) the only “big six” club to come before Christmas.

While Jamaal Lascelles (£4.9m) and Martin Dubravka (£5.0m) remain prohibitively priced, the likes of Paul Dummett and DeAndre Yedlin (both £4.5m) appear excellent budget defensive options for this spell of fixtures. Yedlin, who has a goal and assist to his name already this season, is perhaps the more attractive option of the two.

There is little to cheer in attack for the Magpies, who currently sit bottom of the table for goal attempts (46). Of course, United’s rotten opening run of fixtures is some mitigation for that shot-shy approach, but there would seem precious evidence to advocate a move for a Newcastle midfielder or forward in FPL at this juncture.

The Toon defence is worthy of consideration, though, either from this weekend onwards or perhaps immediately after their trip to Old Trafford in Gameweek 8.

The Talking Point – Benjamin Mendy

Following Manchester City’s 3-0 win at Oxford United on Tuesday, Benjamin Mendy (£6.3m) has now missed his club’s last four matches in all competitions.

Mendy’s price has fallen by £0.2m in the last fortnight and for those sitting on the French left-back because of the value tied up in his services, that argument is weakening by the day.

Those who bought Mendy at £6.2m or above have seen any profit in the City full-back wiped out and there remains the possibility of him falling in price again before the Gameweek 7 deadline this Saturday morning, with sales continuing at a rapid rate: Mendy has suffered more than double the amount of “transfers out” as the next most-sold FPL player of this round.

Injury or otherwise, the perception that Mendy was too important to this current City set-up to be regularly rotated has somewhat lessened since Gameweek 4, with Guardiola’s side having scored eight unanswered league goals in his absence.

In both Premier League fixtures contested since Mendy’s foot injury was inflicted, Fabian Delph (£5.3m) has lined up at full-back with Leroy Sane (£9.2m) brought back in from the cold to offer natural width on the left flank ahead of him.

Sane has a goal and assist to his name in those two encounters with Fulham and Cardiff City and would appear back in Guardiola’s favour for the time being, and even if Mendy was to make a recovery from whatever ails ahead of this weekend, there are no guarantees the Frenchman would waltz straight back into the line-up for the home fixture against Brighton. Mendy and Sane, indeed, have started only one league match together during the former’s time with the club.

City then face Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester United in the five Gameweeks after that, as well as UEFA Champions League fixtures against Hoffenheim and Shakhtar Donetsk dotted in between those league fixtures.

Even if Mendy is back to full fitness and in Guardiola’s good books, the same rotation risk that currently blights the City midfield surely awaits the all-action full-back during this period – and the threat of a no-show in those plum-looking home fixtures against Burnley and Southampton would be especially heightened.

The problem, of course, is what to do with the money. Around 45% of FPL managers (and many who had/have Mendy) already own Marcos Alonso (£6.9m), while Andrew Robertson (£6.2m) and his fellow Liverpool defenders are about to face a double-header against City and Chelsea.

Kieran Trippier (£6.1m) and the Spurs full-backs face the same threat of rotation that they have done for the last few seasons under Mauricio Pochettino, while Arsenal – despite their attractive fixtures – are unconvincing to say the least at the back.

Reallocating the funds elsewhere, meanwhile, means that a move to get Mendy back in – should the Frenchman hit the ground running on his return to fitness – becomes all the more difficult.

A straight swap to the ever-present Aymeric Laporte (£5.6m) is one option, with the French centre-half seemingly having assumed the Nicolas Otamendi (£6.1m) role of last season in being the mainstay that the other City stoppers rotate around.

Downgrading Mendy and retaining the cash in the bank to bring him back in should he return to regular starts and irresistible form is, perhaps, the most obvious – but far from the only – option right now. An on-song Mendy is, after all, FPL gold: the Frenchman is averaging more key passes per appearance than Alonso or Robertson and has five assists to his name already this season, only two fewer than the most recorded by a defender in 2017/18.

Friday’s press conference with Guardiola will hopefully tell us more about his availability – but then again, maybe not…

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