Shouting the Odds: Who the Bookies Back in Gameweek 12

Bookmakers odds can serve as a reality check when selecting your starting 11 and captain. I often use the Ladbrokes site as it’s comprehensive and clearly presented.

In this article, I will be examining the odds to try to pull out implications for our fantasy teams.

Clean Sheet Odds

Let’s start with the clean sheet odds in percentage terms.

Liverpool lead with a 55.6% chance of a clean sheet. Leicester (50%), Chelsea and Manchester City (44.4%), Arsenal (40%), and West Ham (39.2%) follow; all predictable enough. You might be surprised to read that Cardiff (36.4%) are next most likely, although we do know Brighton struggle away. Tottenham only have as much chance (35.7%) as Southampton of keeping it clean, a reminder of the importance of home fixtures. The real probabilities are possibly lower of course, because bookies make a profit.

Of sides we might reasonably consider for playable defenders, Newcastle (28.6%) have the smallest chance of a clean sheet, whilst Brighton keeper Mat Ryan only has a one in three chance of more heroics (come on Mat).

Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s owners have only an 18.2% chance of a clean sheet but this is still above the 17.4% chance that Liverpool had at Arsenal in Gameweek 11.

The odds can question playing expensive defenders in tough fixtures and although attacking potential should be considered, this is often also lower in tough fixtures.

Attacking returns

I use the concept of expected points, which basically adds the returns from each outcome, weighted by their probability. If you have a 50% chance of 2 points and a 50% chance of 6 points then you ‘expect’ 4 points, even though getting exactly 4 is unlikely.

Expected attacking points use the odds for scoring 1, 2 and 3 goals. Two appearance points are assumed, along with 1, 2, and 3 bonus points for 1, 2, and 3 goals respectively. The extra goal and expected clean sheet points for midfielders are also factored in. The potential for assists is not included, which along with a player’s role, is a function of expected team goals.

These odds have Mohamed Salah (12.78 points) then Sadio Mane (10.49) as the best picks. If you have neither, Eden Hazard (8.88) beats Sergio Aguero (8.32) and Raheem Sterling (7.53). The totals are higher than on the RateMyTeam page (in the Member’s area), as they include bonuses and don’t factor in the bookmaker’s profit margin. It doesn’t matter, because the aim is to compare. Whilst RMT slightly favours Hazard over Mane, the odds put Mane higher.

Expected Team Goals data comes from the ‘Team goals’ tab on the Ladbrokes site. As all possibilities are covered, the bookies’ margin can be removed, giving a ‘real’ expectation.

Liverpool’s expected 3.35 goals extend Salah and Mane’s lead. Manchester City (2.49) beats Chelsea (2.31), so there isn’t a clear cut winner between Hazard, Aguero and Sterling.

Who to bench?

Many managers in the Meet the Manager series have advocated a cheap bench. In these cases, your decision is easy; but Gameweek 13 starts a busy period when you’ll likely need better substitutes. It also gives the option of selecting cheap players over expensive players with tough fixtures. Comparing the Any Time Goalscorer odds, David Brooks with a 26.7% chance is level with Richarlison for Gameweek 12 and a better option than Gylfi Sigurdsson (23.8%), Anthony Martial (23.8%) and Paul Pogba (20%).

Do any of these odds surprise you? Are you looking to spread the funds a bit through the festive period?

Do you look at odds, and if you do, which do you look at and find most useful? Which would you like to see me include in the future?