Spot the Differential

Three FPL differentials for Gameweek 29 and the blanks ahead

This regular series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5% – or in one case this week, just slightly above it.

We’ve looked at a defender, a midfielder and a forward with appealing matches this weekend as well as guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Michail Antonio (£6.8m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

There was a mad rush on Felipe Anderson (£7.2m) ahead of West Ham’s match against Fulham in Gameweek 27, with Fantasy managers also perhaps having one eye on the weeks ahead when snapping the Brazilian up – the Hammers have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 as well as some appealing matches beforehand.

While Anderson has struggled for form (one assist in nine matches), his team-mate Michail Antonio (£6.8m) has quietly been more impressive.

Antonio has two goals, one assist and two bonus points in the last four Gameweeks.

The former Nottingham Forest midfielder has started 11 of the last 12 Premier League matches and while the return to fitness of Manuel Lanzini (£6.4m) and Samir Nasri (£5.3m) is perhaps cause for concern, both those players shared game-time in the “number ten” role – rather than wide on the right, where Antonio generally plays – on Wednesday evening in Manchester.

When filtered by last six home matches, only three midfielders – all of them premium ones – have recorded more shots in the box than Antonio.

Antonio’s ability in the air could also be an advantage when Newcastle visit the London Stadium on Saturday: Antonio has recorded more headed goal attempts than any other FPL midfielder when again filtered by last six home matches.

The Magpies, meanwhile, have conceded more headed chances than all Premier League teams bar Burnley this season.

Jamie Vardy (£8.8m)

FPL ownership: 5.3%

We’ve slightly bent the rules on this one.

Jamie Vardy‘s FPL ownership was hovering just below the 5% mark at the planning stage of this article but a modest number of inbound transfers has tipped him over the edge of our usual cut-off point for differentials.

The impact of Claude Puel’s exit is still yet to be fully determined but there was seemingly no love lost between the now-departed Frenchman and Vardy, with the Leicester City striker having previously said Puel’s style didn’t suit him.

Similarly, we are yet to see how the appointment of Brendan Rodgers as Leicester manager affects Vardy’s output.

The “new manager bounce” could be the catalyst for Vardy’s renaissance as a Fantasy asset, however, with the ex-England striker having previously enjoyed a purple patch (five goals in as many matches) when Craig Shakespeare replaced another alleged “adversary” in Claudio Ranieri in February 2017.

Vardy, indeed, was on the scoresheet against Brighton on Tuesday night in Mike Stowell’s sole game in charge.

Certainly, Leicester have some appealing fixtures ahead, starting with a trip to a Watford side that rank in the bottom five for attempts on goal, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks.

The Foxes also avoid any of the “big six” from now until Gameweek 36 and have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Vardy’s underlying stats aren’t great over the last six Gameweeks but the calibre of the Foxes’ opposition (Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs) and the Leicester striker’s benching at Wembley have to be taken into account.

Only two FPL forwards have been presented with more “big chances” than Vardy in 2018/19.

James Tarkowski (£4.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.4%

Burnley’s eight-match unbeaten run came to an end on Tuesday night but there is little argument that the Clarets have massively improved following their well-documented struggles earlier this season.

Over the last nine Gameweeks, only four clubs have shipped fewer goals than Sean Dyche’s side.

Just five sides have allowed fewer big chances in that time.

Burnley now have three home matches in the next four Gameweeks – one of which is in Blank Gameweek 31.

Tarkowski recorded three attempts on goal on Tyneside in midweek: Shane Duffy (£4.7m) is the only FPL defender who has registered more shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks.

Only three FPL assets in any position (let alone defence) have registered more efforts than Tarkowski from inside the opposition six-yard box this season.

2,163 Comments Post a Comment
  1. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    So who’s tortured themselves with me by bringing Hazard in? Who cant wait to be trolled this Sunday? Meeee! Captain Haz let me down as you always do son!!

    1. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I've been torturing myself for weeks on end, I've got him capped atm as well

    2. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'm currently "mulling it over" aka twisting my brain in knots trying to work out if it's worth it to do Sane -> Hazard.

      Think they have equal chance of being benched this weekend tbh.

      1. Whazza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Why? Hazard was taken off early last game, surely he'll start.

        1. Shatner's Bassoon
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Played a lot in the last fortnight though. 90 vs United in the cup, then 120 v City, then an hour.

          Accumulation of fatigue etc. Could still definitely start, but it's nowhere near a sure thing.

          Deffo wouldn't captain this week.

          1. DAZZ
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            He’ll start. They need wins

  2. barcaa7
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Siggy to Sterling and Kun to Vardy for -4?

  3. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Would anyone do (1) Auba and Kun to Higuaín and Vardy (-4)?

    Or (2) just stick with the plan and do Auba to one now, with the other in 31 for Kun?

    1. Latch86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      (2)

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      3. Both next week

      1. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Really? As in keep Auba even if Aub to Hig is free?

  4. DR0GBA
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Play 1:

    A) Barnes
    B) Diop
    C) Jonny
    D) Hayden

    1. Big Hands Barry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A

  5. Fantasyamateur
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Alisson
    Doherty - Robertson - Lascelles - Pereira
    Salah - Son - Pogba
    Agüero - Jimenez - Rashford

    Bench: Richarlison, Laporte, Camarasa, Button.

    2FT, 1.3M ITB

    Son & Laporte to Hazard & Diop looks like decent transfers? Probably capping Hazard as well.

  6. Latch86
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Worth losing Lacazette for a -4 hit and getting Vardy / Higuain?

    1. Big Hands Barry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I would actually - Higuain

    2. BATISTUTA ®
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      if you C Higuain yes

    3. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

  7. Big Hands Barry
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    A) Hold Son for derby
    B) Son --> Hazard (-4) vs Fulham
    C) Son --> Sterling (-4) vs Bournemouth

    1. BATISTUTA ®
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'm holding him, plus Spurs have Saints after that.

    3. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      All good moves honestly, keeping him myself as not enough itb.

  8. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Fooookin Nuno!

    Which keeper would you replace Patricio with who plays in both gw31 and 33?

    4.6m to play with meaning I can only get Boruc or Lossl.

    Would you instead take a hit and downgrade Son to Barnes/Brooks(will bench him this week) and upgrade Patricio to any other gk playing in 31/33?

    1. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Boruc

    2. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      boric isn't a bad bet actually. Bournmouth are at home 31 and 33 against not too difficult opponents (NEW, BUR)

      1. Whats the Mata?
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Is he nailed though?

    3. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Heaton

      1. Whats the Mata?
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        he's 4.8m mate

  9. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Trying to decide whether to bring in TAA now (for digne) or is there a benefit of saving FT and do a mini wC next gw.

    Fabianski -- Button
    Doherty • Digne • Pereira
    Salah • Pogba • Sterling (c) • Richarlison
    Jimenez • Aguero • King

    Button Lascelles Schindler Hayden

    If I save FT,
    - could do sterling/Hayden > mane/Fraser
    - could even do sterling/Schindler > mane/taa

    Are these options better then doing digne > TAa this week?

  10. Disco Stu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Now that AWB is fit, play him or Rich this week?

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'd play Rich

    2. BATISTUTA ®
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      AWB

    3. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Richarlison

  11. Samian
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Is Boruc nailed? I know he has started the last 5-6 games but not sure what the consensus is on how badly Begovic was performing or how serious the falling out with Howe was. 4 mill for a starting goalkeeper with their end to the season looks to be a great little enabler

    1. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      im really not sure he is nailed.
      he's probably safe for one or two more. But if they keep conceding at this recent rate he may be the fall guy.

  12. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Keep Etheridge vs Wolves (a), or sell for a hit? I have 3 Wolves players starting.

    1. Big Hands Barry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      easily keep

  13. pressdpm
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Really struggling here.
    2FT's and 1.9 spare, any advice?

    Fabianski
    Bennett - Robertson - Kolasinac
    Salah - Son - F.Anderson - Pogba
    Rashford - Jiminez - Aguero

    Speroni - Digne - Wan Bissake - Biling

  14. Tempestic
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    How do I check or does anyone know Rashfords ownership in the higher ranks?

  15. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Press Conference Round Up

    Neale and I catch up on the latest injury and line up news ahead of GWK 29's deadline

    Youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g1B-hbpZiU

    Podcast http://traffic.libsyn.com/fantasyfootballscout/Gameweek_29_Press_Conference_Round_Up.mp3

    Soundcloud https://soundcloud.com/user-794346678/gameweek-29-press-conference-round-up

  16. Deulofail
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    I have a team full of captaincy options, but can you help me pick one? Currently stuck between Sterling and Higuain, but my mind is open (too open!?).

    Patrício** (CAR)
    Robertson, Alexander-Arnold (eve) / Doherty (CAR)
    Sterling (bou) / Pogba, Martial* (SOU) / Kanté, Hazard (ful)
    Agüero (bou), Higuaín (ful)

    Boruc (MCI) // Digne (LIV) / Clyne, Solanke** (MCI)

    Also, although it's will almost certainly make no difference, would you play Patricio over Boruc?

    1. Big Hands Barry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Id captain Sterling or Hazard dependant on which team you think will score the most goals

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Patricio wont start. Nuno said it.

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        😮

      2. Party time
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Been a mess all season

        • Mysterion
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Benchwankery to get Boruc's haul on Sunday

          1. Deulofail
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Delaying the negative score 🙁

            1. Mysterion
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              😀 the benchwankerer becomes the benchwankeree

      3. Hy liverpool
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Captain haz or Sterling
        Play pat over boruc

        1. Hy liverpool
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Martial to lanzini of you are feeling punty

          1. Deulofail
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            No chance in hell I'm going to entertain that idea, but thanks for the suggestion 😀 (my mind isn't open to everything! Haha)

      4. BATISTUTA ®
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Higuain for me

      5. bhh
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Doesn't matter what you do, Boruc is your keeper this week

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          So insightful..

      6. Runaway
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I would play Patricio for sure, I would never rely on manager comments in such situations even though Nuno is one of the most reliable ones 🙂
        captain Sterling for me, Higuain not proven to be a captain material I think.

        1. Pieterke30
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Oh yeah Im playing Patricio too just in case but Ive Guaita on the bench

      7. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I'm pretty sure I'm going to bring in Sterling and captain him if that helps.

      8. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        You’re already on a -8 or -12 this GW arent you?

        -12 that’s aggressive mate. Like it. But Chelsea better show up for it to be worth it!

        GL

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          -8 for Aguero and triple Chelsea on Tuesday night. Risky and less likely to pay off as soon as I'd hoped, given Jesus news. Cheers Piet

      9. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers all. Appreciate the comments. Still none the wiser.

      10. Cojones of Destiny
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        pat keeper, sterling cap take it from a pro baller)

    3. Robson-Canoe
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Patricio is Rui-ning my season

      1. Party time
          5 years, 2 months ago

          🙂

        • Yank Revolution
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Guess you can't stand Pat

      2. bitm2007
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Which combo should I be building towards for GW31 and GW33 blank GW's

        A) Hazard, Firmino and Wilson

        B) Mane, Higuian and Arnautovic

        The rest of my GW31 and GW33 starting 11, as thing standing is

        Lossl
        Robertson, Luiz, Zabaletta
        Salah, F.Anderson, Frasar,
        Barnes

      3. JJeyy
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Aguero to hig? Feel like hig will score more over next two then it’s the blank.

      4. George James
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Bench one (playing Doherty)

        A) Bennet
        B) Jota
        C) Alonso

        1. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Tough one. As a Bennett owner, I'd probably say A.

        2. Hy liverpool
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          A

        3. Robson-Canoe
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Bennett no doubt

        4. Shatner's Bassoon
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          A - wouldn't double up the wolves defence with a sub keeper playing.

          Cardiff love ruining CS as well. (Chelsea...Liverpool...)

        5. Cojones of Destiny
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          c imo

      5. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        If selling Auba to bring in Sterling, who would you bring in as his replacement?

        A) King
        B) Barnes

        I've got the exact money for King and, after benching him this week (which I would with Barnes anyway this week), he has amazing fixtures. Both play in 31 and 33.

        Cheers

        1. Hy liverpool
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          I prefer A after this week.. Probably B in this case as i don't expect king to score this week

          1. PascalCygan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Thanks. I might go for King then because I'd be benching Barnes this week anyway and going 3-5-2. King might be the way to go then?

      6. Ahmed Adam
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I need to captain Hazard. I think he will Explode against Weak Fullham and will be differential Captain

        1. Robson-Canoe
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Yes I thought the same.. vs FUL, LEI, cry, SOU, NEW, bou ... good luck

        2. bitm2007
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          There is no outstanding captaincy candidate this GW, so go for it.

      7. bhh
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        What is the best replacement for Moutinho (5.3m) in the midfield role who plays 31 and 33 and ISN'T HAYDEN!

        1. Gringo Kid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Brooks

          1. Garlana
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            This

          2. bhh
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Cheers.

        2. Garlana
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Nothing itb?

          1. Garlana
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Barnes at 5.5 if you have anything itb

        3. bitm2007
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Kante is the safe option, Mooy as a punt with a higher ceiling.

          1. bitm2007
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Brooks also a good option, if you don't mind him being a questionable starter this GW.

      8. ANDERSON 2000
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I have used my WC, Gtg? I suppose this team can last for GW29 & 30...

        Fabianski
        Doherty Robb Shaw Luiz
        Mane Haz Sterling Pogba
        Aguero Jim

        Boruc TAA Hayden Solanke

        0.2 ib any comment?

      9. MrFrodo
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Someone had done a CSV with the likely DG weeks. Does anyone know what the url is for it?

        1. jdp219
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Are you referring to Ben Crellin? Or someone here did one, too?

          1. jdp219
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            If Ben... https://twitter.com/BenCrellin

        2. bhh
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Nah but follow Ben Crellin on twitter. He has most of the calculations across his feed for likely Blank 33 and often gives suggestions as to how he thinks the doubles will be rescheduled

        3. MrFrodo
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          I'm not sure who it was but i know there was one knocking about. I'll check ben see what he has.

      10. manu4life99
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        A) Save FT
        B) Kola to 4.9m def (Tarkowski?)

        Fab
        Kola Pereira Doherty Robbo
        Mane Salah Pog(vc) Sterling(C)
        Rashford Jiminez
        (Rich,Digne,Long)

        1. bhh
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Save FT. Gives you more flexibility for you if you decide you want a premium forward at some point

      11. yer old da
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Which trio with an eye on GW31?

        A. TAA, Maddison and Higuain?
        B. Tarkowski, Hazard and Rondon/Barnes?

        1. Robson-Canoe
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          A and it's not even remotely close

      12. potatoace
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Hope Pat gets peridropped. would be nice to have Ruddy as an option for the DGW

        1. Robson-Canoe
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Nah he'll be back

          1. potatoace
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            shame,
            hes been pants.in general

            1. Robson-Canoe
              • 8 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              Agreed, I had him all season and even kept him on my WC a few weeks ago, what a stupid move that was. Today he's finally out for a hit...

      13. Bobby Digital
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        This is a odd season.. dont see the need for my 2nd WC anywhere soon. Got 8 playing in GW31 and 3 with a DGW in 32. All I need is to get a couple more in for GW31 and Im set. I guess theres a lot out there with a similar problem...

        Youd like to get atleast 10 weeks from your WC, but I guess youll just stavk your team up for the last 3-5 weeks.

      14. thomashl
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Best GK for gw31 & 33?

        Patricio owner and he’s got to go. Thinking Heaton or Fab.

        1. potatoace
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Fab probably , been getting the save points all season. Heaton is decent though too.

          1. thomashl
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Cheers mate!