White Smoke over Turf Moor

The received wisdom amongst experienced FPL managers is that picking cheap goalkeepers tends to be the best strategy. Although the likes of Ederson and Alisson are likely to be the highest scorers at the end of the season, with their impressive clean sheet totals, the argument is that budget options will compensate through save points, offering stronger value overall.

Burnley

Since their promotion under Sean Dyche in 2015/16, no team’s goalkeepers have made more saves than Burnley. In fact, they have consistently been near the top of the pile for a number of relevant metrics in the previous three seasons.

• 2016/17 – Saves (2nd), Shots Conceded (2nd), Shots Outside Box Conceded (1st)
• 2017/18 – Saves (=3rd), Shots Conceded (2nd), Shots Outside Box Conceded (3rd)
• 2018/19 – Saves (3rd), Shots Conceded (1st), Shots Outside Box Conceded (1st)

It seems obvious enough that conceding more shots leads to goalkeepers making more saves. However, whilst you might expect that conceding more shots also means more conceding more goals, Burnley have had a very respectable defensive record, apart from in the first half of last season, when Dyche has since admitted that Europa League fatigue played a role.

• 2016/17 – 55 Goals Conceded (11th), 10 Clean Sheets (=11th)
• 2017/18 – 39 Goals Conceded (6th), 12 Clean Sheets (7th)
• 2018/19 – 68 Goals Conceded (16th), 8 Clean Sheets (=12th)
• 2018/19 (GW1 to GW19) – 41 Goals Conceded (19th), 4 Clean Sheets (=10th)
• 2018/19 (GW20 to GW38) – 27 Goals Conceded (11th), 4 Clean Sheets (=12th)

Tactics

It’s worth considering how Burnley have maintained this perfect balance between saves and clean sheets, and the answer lies in their style of play. The first thing to note is that Burnley tend to hover around the 40% mark for possession, and have boasted the 18th, 16th and 18th highest average possession in the last three seasons respectively.

The reason is that Burnley’s defensive approach is to sit deep, with two banks of four, inviting teams to try and break them down. In possession, they prefer a more direct approach, and only Neil Warnock’s Cardiff prevented them from making it three seasons on the bounce with the league’s worst pass completion.

The effect of this style is that opposition teams are encouraged to take pot-shots from distance, which do not seriously threaten the goal, and allow Burnley goalkeepers to rack up relatively easy saves. This theory is backed up by a couple more stats, if you haven’t had enough already.

• 2016/17 – Shots Outside the Box Percentage (5th), xG per Shot Conceded (1st)
• 2017/18 – Shots Outside the Box Percentage (7th), xG Conceded per Shot Conceded (2nd)
• 2018/19 – Shots Outside the Box Percentage (3rd), xG Conceded per Shot Conceded (3rd)

What this demonstrates is that, although Burnley concede a lot of shots, these tend to be far less threatening than the average. They conceded a high percentage of their shots from outside the box, due to defending deep. This means that on a shot-by-shot basis, the chances they concede have a very low Expected Goal (xG) value, as their defence concentrates on preventing the opposition from shooting in dangerous areas, rather than stopping them from shooting altogether.

This could also explain the team’s poor defensive record with Joe Hart in between the sticks at the start of last season. For all of Hart’s shot-stopping ability, he has an increasingly poor track record against shots from distance, as famously highlighted by Gareth Bale’s long-range free-kick in Euro 2016.

Fixtures

If that wasn’t enough already, there is another useful thing about Burnley for fantasy managers, which is their predictability. Aside from the above statistical consistency, Burnley have tended to do well when you expect them to and have struggled against the top teams.

Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United have finished as the top six in each of the previous three seasons. There has been at least an 8-point gap to the team in 7th in each of these seasons, and with the exception of a Lukaku-inspired Everton outscoring Mourinho in his first season at Old Trafford, they have also had the top six goalscoring records in each of the previous three seasons.

Burnley have not kept a clean sheet against the top six in either of the last two seasons, suggesting they have the necessary attacking quality to break down Burnley’s deep block. However, because Burnley don’t significantly change their defensive approach to the opposition, or for home or away games, you can pretty much bank on their goalkeepers to score well in any game against the less creative teams.

Points 

• 2016/17 – 78 GK Points at Home (4.1 PPG), 76 GK Points Away (4.0 PPG).
• 2016/17 – 112 GK Points vs Bottom Fourteen (4.3 PPG), 42 GK Points vs Top Six (3.5 PPG).
• 2016/17 – 58 GK Points at Home vs Bottom Fourteen (4.5 PPG), 54 GK Points Away vs Bottom Fourteen (4.2 PPG)
• 2016/17 – 20 GK Points at Home vs Top Six (3.3 PPG), 22 GK Points Away vs Top Six (3.7 PPG)

• 2017/18 – 82 GK Points at Home (4.3 PPG), 78 GK Points Away (4.1 PPG).
• 2017/18 – 134 GK Points vs Bottom Fourteen (5.1 PPG), 26 GK Points vs Top Six (2.2 PPG).
• 2017/18 – 69 GK Points at Home vs Bottom Fourteen (5.3 PPG), 65 GK Points Away vs Bottom Fourteen (5.0 PPG)
• 2017/18 – 13 GK Points at Home vs Top Six (2.2 PPG), 13 GK Points Away vs Top Six (2.2 PPG)

• 2018/19 – 71 GK Points at Home (3.7 PPG), 56 GK Points Away (3.0 PPG).
• 2018/19 – 98 GK Points vs Bottom Fourteen (3.8 PPG), 29 GK Points vs Top Six (2.2 PPG).
• 2018/19 – 52 GK Points at Home vs Bottom Fourteen (4.0 PPG), 46 GK Points Away vs Bottom Fourteen (3.5 PPG)
• 2018/19 – 19 GK Points at Home vs Top Six (3.2 PPG), 10 GK Points Away vs Top Six (1.7 PPG)

Conclusion

Overall, Burnley are better defensively at home, like most teams. However, as with many FPL goalkeepers, their save point potential away from home means they have presented an excellent play-every-week option for fantasy managers.

The additional save points that come from playing against the top six does not seem to make up for the goals conceded and clean sheets, however, and it’s worth noting that in 2 of the 3 matches a Burnley goalkeeper scored 6 points or more against the top six in the previous three seasons, they saved a penalty.

With Arsenal away in GW2, and Liverpool visiting Turf Moor in GW4, I would be cautious with your expectations for the Burnley goalkeeper until the first international break, although you could always get lucky with a penalty save. After that, however, they have just one game against the top six in their next ten matches, which is Chelsea at home in GW10.

If you find yourself wildcarding in GW5, as many fantasy managers will, then with the way Sean Dyche sets up his team, and no Europa League distractions, there will be a strong case for putting Nick Pope in your team and forgetting about the goalkeeper position until at least December, and possibly for the rest of the season.