Spot the Differential

Man City injuries could allow Mahrez to reward Fantasy owners

With many of the highly-owned players failing to deliver in recent weeks, differentials are becoming more and more important to Fantasy Premier League managers.

In Gameweek 7, the top 10 points-scorers all had single-digit ownership levels, proving that many of this season’s top performers are still hiding away.

It was another good week for this regular column though. Andriy Yarmolenko (£6.0m) and Chris Wood (£6.2m) lived up to their billing by registering a goal each.

Let’s hope for more of the same this weekend. Here are three exciting players owned by 5% or less ahead of Gameweek 8.

Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez has been in exceptional form recently

Price: £8.6m 

Ownership: 4.9% 

GW8 Opponent: Wolves (H)

A player averaging 6.4 points per game is always hard to ignore in FPL, although Riyad Mahrez (£8.6m) is much more of a hidden gem right now because he plays for Manchester City.

Had it not been for their ‘Pep Roulette’ rotation system, the former Leicester man probably would have been an essential asset weeks ago.

However, a unique opportunity has emerged which makes Mahrez a viable option, at least for now. 

With fitness concerns over Kevin de Bruyne this weekend and the risk of Bernardo Silva missing out (perhaps long-term), Mahrez seems likely to be involved from the start against Wolves.

Despite only starting four league games since August, he has registered two goals and five assists – one every 57 minutes. 

Mahrez has the same amount of FPL points as Sadio Mané despite offering a saving of £3.0m, which shows how appealing his points per million is.

The Algerian’s underlying statistics almost seem too good to be true and some may say that they are skewed. But form is all that matters to me. 

Over the last two Gameweeks, among all midfielders, Mahrez has the most number of touches in the opponents’ half (127) and the most number of touches in the final third (90). 

For good measure, he’s also had 9 attempts on goal during the same period – only John McGinn has had more. That in itself speaks volumes and boosts his credibility.

Man City are due to face a potentially fatigued Wolves team this weekend that lacks the squad depth to effectively manage their Europa League and Premier League commitments. If Mahrez starts, it would be hard to say he won’t be involved in the goals.

Andriy Yarmolenko

Yarmolenko has been in good form recently and earns a recall to the differentials picks

Price: £6.0m

Ownership: 4.0%

GW8 Opponent: Crystal Palace (H)

For this first time this season, I’ve decided to repurpose one of my picks from last week. 

Yarmolenko’s wnership has increased by 2.7% but is thankfully still below the 5% threshold and capable of propelling his owners up the rankings.

The West Ham midfielder has now registered three goals in his last four league games. For all midfielders priced at £6.5m or less he currently has the best points per game average (5.5). 

Also, during the last two Gameweeks, Yarmolenko has registered the joint-fifth most amount of touches in the final third among all midfielders (54). 

This Michu-esque form shows that he’s getting in the right advanced areas and is being rewarded for his efforts.

It is clear that Yarmolenko’s minutes were being managed in August and early September, to ease him back in after his long injury lay off but he’s now beginning to play the entirety of games. 

For this campaign, he is currently averaging a goal for every 125 minutes played, which is very respectable for a budget midfielder. 

Provided he stays fit and can maintain good performance levels he could end up with at least a dozen goals by the end of the season. 

West Ham’s next opponents are Crystal Palace. The Hammers have scored 10 goals in their last five matches against the Eagles and I expect more from them with Yarmolenko at the helm.

Oli McBurnie 

McBurnie will probably enjoy playing against Watford’s poor defence

Price: £5.9m

Ownership: 0.1% 

GW8 Opponent: Watford (A)

If you’re short on cash up top and are willing to take a substantial risk on an uber-differential then look no further than Oliver McBurnie (£5.9m). 

The Sheffield United forward has started four consecutive Premier League games for his team and, since Gameweek 6, among players priced at £6.0m or less, he has the joint-third highest number of shots on goal.

That period has pitted the Blades against Everton and Liverpool, so there’s every reason to believe he can continue to provide threat against Watford.

 Of course, it’s a concern that he’s only scored one Premier League goal during his entire career, which includes an additional 16 appearances for Swansea City. 

But last season he demonstrated his ability to find the net regularly and seems to be gradually adapting to life as a top-flight centre-forward.

In the Premier League, he clearly won’t match his goal tally from last season but I expect him to gradually improve by each Gameweek. 

Vicarage Road on Saturday could serve as an ideal opportunity for him. The Hornets have been completely woeful recently, even after their managerial change. 

McBurnie and Sheffield United could cause them more trouble after having impressed against some of the league’s more established teams since Gameweek 1.

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Lessons Learned from Gameweek 7

911 Comments Post a Comment
  1. SkekTek (AKA: AnzhiBabakin)
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 10 days ago

    Taking one of my risks out. Preference?
    A. KDB to Mahrez/Son/Silva
    B. Cantwell to Yarmolenko

    1. Zlatanzo
        2 months, 10 days ago

        B

      • Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        A with Son

        1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          im not sure about son after poch said about resting player

        2. PUMPKINHEAD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Son could be rested both this week and after the IB. I'm sure at least 1 Moura gets a game

          1. PUMPKINHEAD
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Or Ali /Lamela

      • Blue&White85
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        A - Son

      • SkekTek (AKA: AnzhiBabakin)
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        Should say I may be wildcarding after this week, so not fussed about return moves too much.

        1. PUMPKINHEAD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Mahrez if it's a one week punt like me.

          I wouldn't if you want KDB back next week tho. That's a bit daft

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 10 days ago

      Starting to realise that my gut is a bit high maintenance. It doesn't want to dine out on freebies but instead goes for the -8 option.

      Pope
      TAA ■ Otamendi ■ Tomori
      Salah ■ Sterling ■ Mount ■ Saka
      Aguero ■ Abraham ■ Pukki

      Adrian ■ Lundstram ■ Cantwell ■ Dunk

      1. Gooner Kebab
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        Nice team, a LEI player would make this even better.

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          I had Tielemans last week. The only Leicester mid not to register any attacking return - including Ndidi - I kid you not.

          Might be able to work one in if I move Aguero out for Aubameyang in a couple of weeks.

      2. Rainer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        -8 to bench Lundstram? 😮

        Poor Aurier!

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Everyone should captain Lundstram. He's one for another haul on my bench 🙂

          1. Rainer
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            😆

      3. PUMPKINHEAD
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        You could easily make 8 points back. Lundy on bench where he belongs. Good team

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          thanks Pumpkin, fingers crossed

    3. Eastman
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 10 days ago

      AWB > Tomori or Lundstram?

      1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        tomori got better fixtures

      2. Zlatanzo
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Tomori, lundy at 4.5 now doesn't appeal to me as much

        • Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Tomori

        • Murder On Zidanesfloor
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Lundy. Attacking mid

      3. Daghe Munegu
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        Play

        A: Guendouzi
        B: Rico
        C: Pukki or Wilson -4

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Wilson

        2. Freddiebell
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Wilson

      4. Hybrid.power
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        Pointless post: I'm .1 off doing Dendocker to Yarmolenko for free....that's the sort of thing that really twists my nipples.

        1. Gooner Kebab
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          balls

        2. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Especially when he rose 0.1m this week.

          How about a punt on Saka?

          1. Hybrid.power
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            I haven't heard of him until now. Any use?

            1. Twisted Saltergater
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 10 days ago

              By no means nailed so you'd probably be better served with McGinn.

      5. Tempestic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 10 days ago

        Is Tomori likely to keep his place medium to long term?

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Depends on form but at the moment he's Frank's 1st or 2nd choice CB (in his words).

          1. Tempestic
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Oh I suppose its when Rudiger is back that he'll become a rotation risk

            1. Twisted Saltergater
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 10 days ago

              Yep, you'd think Rudiger is first choice.

        2. A Fat Spanish Waiter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Frank says he is, but there are a lot of injuries at the bank for Chelsea ATM.

          1. Tempestic
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Tbf I think hes better than Zouma and Christensen no?

      6. Murder On Zidanesfloor
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 10 days ago

        Greenwood likely to start?

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Rashford should start no?

        2. Rainer
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          As likely as the last 7 weeks.

      7. Alonso The Great Midfielder
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        Is otamendi in a risk when stone come back after ib?

        1. Rainer
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Yes, another defensive liability wont help City.

        2. SHOOTER MCGINN
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          No

      8. fr3d
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 10 days ago

        If Pukki blanks tomorrow. Do you keep him?

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          might move him on to Vardy

        2. Zlatanzo
            2 months, 10 days ago

            If he can't score at home then next week away is a write off

          • Blue&White85
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Depends on the rest of your team and what needs changed. I will keep Pukki.

          • ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            instant sell

          • Alonso The Great Midfielder
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            if cant score at home against Aston villa then think need to ship out

          • Jarvish Scott Talent
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Probably as will have to remove one of my other players that are bound to get injured or sent off instead.

          • JohnBlack
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Seasonkeeper

          • Zim0
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 10 days ago

            I'm getting rid for Wilson either way next week

          • PUMPKINHEAD
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Out on wc next week for Wilson I think..

        3. Cantwell on these things.
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Six flags in my squad yay. Gonna be a rollercoaster week!

          1. Jarvish Scott Talent
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Nice!

          2. Bobby Digital
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            Ouch

            1. Cantwell on these things.
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 10 days ago

              Ikr. 4 red, one orange, one yellow. Teams looking like a shelf full of sunny delight.

        4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 10 days ago

          Speaking at his pre-match press conference, Guardiola said: “Tomorrow he is not fit. After the international break he will be ready. It is not a big problem.”

          How are people getting “Sell KDB” from this?

          Does no one have a bench anymore??

          1. Hybrid.power
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 10 days ago

            My bench is cack, but I'm not selling KDB. He's a season keeper barring long term injuries.

          2. Zlatanzo
              2 months, 10 days ago

              Exactly. I assume people have some value in him from price rises as well, getting rid for one GW is crazy

              1. GARY AND JAMIE
                • 6 Years
                2 months, 10 days ago

                This it depends on value. You can buy him back fairly quickly...

            • Manani
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 10 days ago

              I assume a lot like me have greenwood and dendocker, so not ideal

            • Nomar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 10 days ago

              Bench players aren't great for some.

              In my case it's Dendoncker or AMN or Soyuncu. You'd figure Mahrez would score considerably more than any of those 3, so it becomes a case of either keeping a FT and KdB on bench and getting 1 or 2 points from your autosub or get Mahrez and potentially double digit points from him this weekend.

              The fact that KdB could drop over the next 2 weeks has to factor into it too.

              I'm considering the move myself for free as I need points this week.

          3. Zlatanzo
              2 months, 10 days ago

              Cantwell losing his place when Hernandez comes back? Would you get rid on a WC next week?

              1. SkekTek (AKA: AnzhiBabakin)
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 10 days ago

                I probably would if funds were needed yes - Norwich supporting friends say he could do with a rest or rotation

              2. Hart-ake
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 10 days ago

                Ooh, this is a good point...

            • yakirh
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 10 days ago

              Will Saka start?

              1. Rainer
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 10 days ago

                Once not injured, he should.

                1. Zlatanzo
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    Saka not Sakho lol

                2. Twisted Saltergater
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  He was left out of the EL squad, so here's hoping.

                3. SH
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  After that performance against ManUtd, he should.

              2. GARY AND JAMIE
                • 6 Years
                2 months, 10 days ago

                Feel a bit sick doing KDB/TAA to Sterling/Tomori ... just don't think Liverpool look at it defensively and going without Sterling makes me sicker still...

              3. The Train Driver
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 10 days ago

                Start Cantwell and risk few minutes cameo or start Montoya?

              4. Manani
                • 8 Years
                2 months, 10 days ago

                dendocker > Yarmelenko for -4
                or
                play greenwood

                if I do the transfer, I can't do Haller > Abraham after IB

                1. Hybrid.power
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  Greenwood will get nothing again. I'd do the swap.

                2. Zlatanzo
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    Being stuck on double WHU doesn't sound good

                3. De Gea is GOAT
                  • 2 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  Willing to take a hit this week to field 11. Which move would be best? Thanks all

                  KDB to Mahrez (value ties up in De Groin)
                  Hayden to Saka

                  1. SH
                    • 4 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    I did Hayden>Saka. Hayden on a 3 match ban, KDB is likely be back after one gw

                    1. De Gea is GOAT
                      • 2 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      Yep done it also. Gl to us 🙂

                4. Stimps
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 6 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  Will Bernard Silva play this weekend? When would he get banned if he does?

                  1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    I think he does which makes the Mahrez punt all the more risky.

                  2. Alonso The Great Midfielder
                    • 8 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    i read somewhere that he is only getting 3 banned if he plead guilty and maybe starting at gw9

                  3. Internal Error
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    Any ban would be after appeal deadline has passed which is next week

                5. Pete Price The Lizard
                  • 3 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  I'm gonna risk it a little this GW thoughts on Ceballos & KdB> Pepe & Yarmolenko for free? I bank 0.8 and get Kev back in after IB if fully fit?

                  1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    I have to say that Pepe looked just terrible last week.

                    1. Pete Price The Lizard
                      • 3 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      He did but that was against a stubborn United away he's still adjusting to the pace and quality of the league like

                6. Coys96
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  1FT, do I:

                  A. Get Zinc out (probs to Tomori)
                  B. Dendoncker -> Yarmolenko (have Cantwell so he wouldn't have to start)
                  C. Save

                  1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    probably B

                7. TeddiPonza
                  • 9 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  Which option?

                  A. KdB to Mahrez (play Rico)
                  B. KdB and Greenwood to Yarmo and Tammy (bench Rico)

                  Thanks

                  1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
                    • 8 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    b if you want a secure starting player

                  2. A Fat Spanish Waiter
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    B looks good for one week, but that's a difficult switch to unwind for a one week punt.

                    1. TeddiPonza
                      • 9 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      Still have wildcard

                8. KingOllie
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 10 days ago

                  Honestly, all of you are transfering out the best value player in the game for a 1 week punt? Transfers are worth 4 points, so you need your punt to score atleast 10 to break even (assuming u want KDB back after the IB)

                  1. Twisted Saltergater
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    Didn't want to sell KdB ideally, but is Pep going to be more cautious with his pitch time following another injury?

                    Have sold for Sterling.

                    1. KingOllie
                      • 4 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      I think selling for sterling is OK if you plan to only go with 1 city mid.

                      Hmm i doubt it, he seems to play whenever fit - they have noone else that can really fill his role like he does

                    2. Zlatanzo
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        I doubt he'll be more cautious, people said that after he returned from his long spell on the sidelines and has played mostly full games since.

                    3. GARY AND JAMIE
                      • 6 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      Might get limited minutes v Palace away who they struggled with last time out.Every team has a different circumstance with benches etc...

                      1. GARY AND JAMIE
                        • 6 Years
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        Cantwell flagged is a key issue

                    4. A Fat Spanish Waiter
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      It's an interesting point you raise. However, if you have 2 transfers and nothing else appeals, then why not?

                  2. Jubilanus / BSC Small Boys …
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    What happened to Emerys conference? Was scheduled for 2pm, and nothing on the tweets yet? But we have about a dozen Farke updates! Its nearly 5pm and there is no Arsenal team news on the site at all. WTF?!

                    1. KingOllie
                      • 4 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      Good Ebening

                    2. Internal Error
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      He walked out at 2.01pm when asked why Pepe has been so bad

                    3. Rainer
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 3 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      The Thursday night boys don't usually hold a press conference.

                    4. GARY AND JAMIE
                      • 6 Years
                      2 months, 10 days ago

                      Farke has a dozen out

                  3. sirmorbach
                    • 3 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    Saving my FT. Safe to keep Cantwell having Maguire/Lundstram (who?) as first sub?

                  4. Dynamic Duos
                    • 6 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    KDB and Aurier to Mahrez and Otamendi -4?

                    Current team

                    Pope
                    TAA Tomori xxx
                    Salah Mount Son xxx
                    Vardy Abraham Haller

                    Button Cantwell* Soyuncu Hanley*

                  5. Weasel Boy
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    2 months, 10 days ago

                    Got KDB and Cantwell
                    My bench is Guilbert Rico Dendonc.

                    Should I sell KDB for Mahrez?

                    1. Zlatanzo
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        No!

                      • Dynamic Duos
                        • 6 Years
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        Yes

                      • KingOllie
                        • 4 Years
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        Nope, Guilbert is a good pick this week.

                        And id rather play Rico for 1 week than lose KDB

                        1. Dynamic Duos
                          • 6 Years
                          2 months, 10 days ago

                          He can just reverse the transfer next time, no one wants 10m on the bench

                      • SkekTek (AKA: AnzhiBabakin)
                        • 4 Years
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        I'd move one on yes - anything in the bank?

                        1. Weasel Boy
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          2 months, 10 days ago

                          Zilch in the bank.
                          Cant even buy KDB back unless he drops in price.

                      • Boss Hogg
                        • 10 Years
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        I would.
                        He might be down to 9.8 again by the time he plays next so easy enough to get him back later.

                    2. Zlatanzo
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        Who to play?
                        A) Mings (with Heaton)
                        B) Greenwood
                        C) Montoya

                      • payetisgod
                        • 3 Years
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        Seen one or two concerns around mount looking tired/ potentially rested... any more savy people within the community know if there is any substance to this or just scare mongering ha!

                      • zelio78
                        • 4 Years
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        A) Mane and Kun

                        Or

                        B) Salah and Auba

                        I own Sterling and plan to captain him.

                        Thanks

                        1. Boss Hogg
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 10 days ago

                          I like b

                      • Boss Hogg
                        • 10 Years
                        2 months, 10 days ago

                        Is this worth -8 points?

                        KdB, Barnes and Aurier OUT
                        Yarmolenko, Auba, and Fredericks (or another 4.5m def) IN

                        ???

                        1. zelio78
                          • 4 Years
                          2 months, 10 days ago

                          I had a similar issue and then pressed the WC button.