671
Football Index

Why fixture difficulty can be important in Football Index


Sponsored by Football Index


The new season is already underway, as is my debut campaign betting on Football Index (FI).

As mentioned previously, I’m going to be dipping my toe into the potentially lucrative FI waters all year, hoping to build a modest budget into something a little showier.

We ran over the basic rules of the game in that first article, so today I’m going to start looking a bit deeper into how I might be successful betting on the football stockmarket.

One other thing of note is Premier League bias. We will mostly be looking at Premier League players this season so we can tie FI coverage into our FPL content.

However, FI runs across five major European leagues – England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France – as well as the two UEFA club competitions, so we’ll be removing our Little Englander blinkers from time to time, and especially when there’s a player or Euro event that just can’t be ignored.

And so onwards to…

Will Cheap = Cheerful?

At the most basic level, betting and trading in shares requires you to buy low and sell high.

With that in mind, a good place to start looking for FI bargain bets is among the unknowns, either in terms of their overall (lack of) celebrity among football fans or as a first-time Premier League performer.

In other words, who will be this season’s Teemu Pukki?

Well, first up it’s wise to remember that a breakthrough striker from the Championship is not an every-season phenomenon. Don’t try to force players into pre-conceived narratives. Instead, discover the narrative that fits a player.

Last season, in FPL, that included both Pukki’s early goals and the out-of-position delights of John Lundstram.

This term, my eyes are being drawn to Leeds United.

Manager Marcelo Bielsa is not nicknamed ‘El Loco’ because of his singular devotion to steam trains, so it’s highly unlikely the Whites are going to be shunted into the sidings of dull irrelevance, to mix a metaphor or two.

There’s a feeling of all or nothing about him and his team. They could crash and burn, or they could win hearts, minds and a fine haul of points with a heady mix of high pressing at home and counter-attacks on the road.

Record signing Rodrigo Moreno has already caught my eye – mainly because he’s currently available for about one quid a share. For context, the most expensive player in FI at present is a certain Borussia Dortmund youngster available for well over £14.

Should Moreno quickly find his feet in a Leeds team with, it must be said, a tricky opening set of games, then the striker’s value is not going to stay so wonderfully low.

‘Should’ is doing all the heavy lifting in the previous sentence, mind, so we shall see.

The Fixtures ‘N’ Form Boys

If Leeds’ early schedule is not the easiest, there’s always another team with a brighter immediate outlook.

That leads me on to an FI tactic probably the closest to standard FPL practice – pinpoint a player with a great schedule and tap into it, and them.

With FI, the upsides of this are many.

As well as getting in-play dividends (see below) early doors, they’re in with a chance of the usual match day and team of the month bonuses.

And, if they’re doing the business consistently, they’re also likely to feature heavily in the press, which opens up opportunities to win media dividends on a daily basis.

Success should also breed success, with more fellow managers buying into your prescient pick and bumping up his overall value.

Chelsea have one of the kindest opening set of fixtures, with ‘opening’ here meaning ‘all the way through to Christmas’. Of the biggest teams in the league, Frank Lampard’s men will face only Liverpool (at home) and Man United (away) across their first 14 matches, running into the dim and distant future that is December 19.

Tapping into the wealth of Chelsea’s attacking options seems wise, therefore, with their most expensive FI asset, a certain new striker from the Bundesliga, setting you back close to £6 a share.

Their other major summer transfer business involved Hakim Ziyech, who looked good in the pre-season game at Brighton before succumbing to a knee injury. That has knocked quite a bit of value off him, so he could be worth a look at the mid-£3 mark if he recovers sooner rather than later.

Another team with a great initial schedule is Manchester United.

As you might expect, there’s a lot of money tied up in their key assets, but at around £3 a share, a certain French striker looks well-priced.

If he can continue last season’s fine form – he was United’s leading scorer in FPL with 200 points – then he looks under-valued, particularly with Champions League football to further sweeten the deal.

In-play dividends

This is the closest FI comes to an FPL-style short-term bet.

Some managers might buy a player in for a specific Gameweek. That’s some managers. It’s rare and, presumably, not overly successful, but many of us have eyed up an asset with a good run of, say, four fixtures before things turn nastier further down the line.

FI pays out in-play dividends to all players you bet for the 30 days following that purchase.

It is, potentially, a canny way to win in the short term. How long you keep these players after that initial burst of potential profit is, as ever, the key to longer-term success.

Again, Man United’s early run looks so tempting – Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal should be their toughest tests in the first 11 matches, and all three of those are at Old Trafford.

Tapping into that schedule across the first 30 days of a bet could be lucrative if you buy a United player at the right time (and price, obviously).

Make a bet, for example, just before the early October home game with Spurs, and you’ll have opportunities to win in-play dividends from both domestic and Champions League football.

GET STARTED WITH FOOTBALL INDEX HERE

But don’t forget, this is gambling with real money, so always gamble responsibly: https://www.begambleaware.org/. 18+.



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671 Comments Post a Comment
  1. tibollom
    • 4 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    we expecting price rises before the next GW? got exact funds for Ings to martial..

    1. I Member
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Might have to make the movie tonight or tomorrow.

    2. ManofKent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Clubs that haven't played may be price protected - it's all guesswork

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        I highly doubt that

    3. MajesticWok
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Bruno and KDB likely to see price increases today. Martial maybe in the next couple of days

      1. tibollom
        • 4 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        thanks guy, ill just bite the bullet and do the trasnfer now hoping nothing happens to him till saturday

        1. Roy Rovers
          • 6 Years
          8 days, 4 hours ago

          Martial at 75.5%

  2. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Please help with this

    A- Alli to J.Rodrigez for -4
    B- Alli to Greenwood for -4
    C-Alli to Barnes for -4

    D- Keep Alli he will play

    1. I Member
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      A

    2. PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      A

    3. ManofKent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      A for me, but I think Alli will get gametime

    4. Tempestic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      D

  3. PogBruno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    How would you improve this WC team?

    Martinez
    Robbo Digne James Saiss /Ferguson/
    Auba KDB James Barnes /Bissouma/
    Martial Jimenez /Brewster/

    1. Yome
      • 8 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Don't like James (not nailed) and Barnes.
      Where is Salah?
      Be patient with Werner, he could hurt you later

      1. PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        Auba to Salah next GW
        Martial to Werner down the line

    2. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      not my cup of tea
      I dont like Barnes/James long term
      Its a difficult time to WC without ManU/City playing
      I think in a wk or 2 you might want a totally different team with the likes of Sterling/Kun/Vardy/Bruno

  4. Nunoooooooooo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Help pls! Is Foden a viable option or are him and greenwood still on the naughty step??

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 8 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Foden to score and do an x rated celebration Fowler esk?

      1. Nunoooooooooo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        Haha!!

    2. ManofKent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      No idea - it's all guesswork

    3. Barnabus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      I really like Foden at 6.5, he'll probably be in my WC team

  5. jai1212
    • 6 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    A. Wickham + Havertz >> Martial + 4.5 mid (switch to 3-4-3)
    B. Alli + Havertz >> Rashford + James
    C. Alli + Havertz >> Bruno + 6.5 mid
    D. Alli >> James
    E. Save

  6. aapoman
    • 6 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Havertz to J. Rodriquez for free? Rodriquez has better fixtures and looked much better than Havertz. His role in Everton will likely be Bruno Fernandesque so at 7.5 he can be an absolute bargain.

    1. ManofKent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Could be a good move, but Havertz will likely improve - I wouldn't put too much weight on a first match

      1. Shteve
        • 11 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        +1 on this and same with James who was very good but did play quite deep..

  7. Runaway
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    I am 0.5 short of Alli > Bruno, which option below looks better?

    A) Alli + Werner > Bruno + Richarlison/Martial (-4)
    B) Alli + Davies > Bruno + Lewis/Lamptey (-4)
    C) Alli + Mitro > Bruno + Lewis/Lamptey (-4)
    D) Alli + TAA > Bruno + Robbo/Digne (-4)
    E) Alli > Rashford for free

    1. I Member
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      E

    2. Runaway
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Please ignore C, I could not find a viable 5.5 FWD an forgot to delete the option

    3. Tempestic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      How would C work, Mitro a defender nowadays?

      1. Tempestic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        nvm 😛

    4. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      E

  8. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Top team. Maybe just change Martinez cause Villans are not good in defense

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Compare their stats defensively from 1-29 last season and 30-38. They were immensely improved after lockdown and was clearly something they have worked on.

  9. I Member
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    While I do champion patience in FPL there's also a thin line between being patient and too passive. If you really dislike your team a hit or two can go a long to way to sorting things out and saving you transfers or your Wildcard down the line.

  10. waltzingmatildas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    A) Pulisic - Greenwood
    B) Pulisic - James Rodriguez
    C) one of the above and Ings - and Martial (-4)

    1. I Member
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      C with Rodriguez if Pulisic is confirmed out. Just Ings to Martial if Puli is available.

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        Not got the money for Ings to Martial - poor planning 🙁

  11. Inazuma X1
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Grealish extends his contract with AVFC

    1. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      They’ve done some very good business this window. Nice ambition, nice project.

  12. Little Red Lacazette
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Salah had 21 penalty area touches and 8 shots inside the box versus Leeds. Perma cap him at home?

    1. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Always has been the case

    2. Giggs Boson
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Leeds' high press gave him a lot of space. Most teams won't do that.

      But Bielsa doesn't care, he wants to win games his way, and he nearly did to be fair. Brilliant man.

  13. Mr. O'Connell
    • 8 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Committed to WC ahead of GW3 as that was always the plan. These are my 4 main issues, opinions appreciated. I think these probably apply to a lot of people tbh.

    I was set on getting some Chelsea in there. However, Pulisic once again proved he's made of glass - as much as I rate him, it may be best to stay away. Still think the defence will be probably be a no-go area, although if Reece James is nailed (unlikely) he's worth a punt. Havertz looks like he'll take some time. Werner looked decent (not on pens although may be if Jorgino isn't playing), but prefer a proven nailed Vardy or even Martial around that price. ROTATION will be rife I expect.

    United - are the fixtures actually that good after Palace? (Spurs, Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea in their next 6). I don't think I'd captain Bruno until GW9 anyway.

    Wolves - Jiminez is a lock. He will average at least 5 ppg over those fixtures. Struggling with the defence, however. Boly and Patricio and Patricio seem to expensive when there is probably a 5m route into their backline. Yet Coady has 0 goal threat and can't be sure that Saiss and Marcal are nailed starters each week. Thinking Saiss may be worth the gamble at this point.

    My current draft only really works with a true enabler. At the moment this is Soucek who I would play week in week out. He was extremely threatening with all set pieces aimed at him on Sat - picking up where he left off last season. Question is, will West Ham be getting those set pieces with those fixtures? You'd be pretty happy with 4ppg at that price so if he can get 2 goals in those next 8-10 matches, he's done his job.

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      I like Soucek and agree he needs to be seen as an enabler. He will frustrate as a benched option but what if Moyes gets the sack and they turn to a new coach who doesn't build a lot of their attack through Soucek.

      1. Ask Yourself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        The board would never dream of sacking Moyes. They completely mistreat him and he doesn’t dare say a word against them. Besides, any new manager will realise soucek’s reputation and ability. He is a top player.

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          8 days, 4 hours ago

          Fair comment. Something seems to be going on at WHU though and a lot of their players publicly expressed their unhappiness with Diangana being sold.

    2. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Soucek is a starter on my WCGW3 draft and I have no worries with that

    3. mcrayeps
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      the only problem with soucek is his fixtures

  14. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Everton WBA score predictions?

    1. PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      X - 0

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        10-0 wow

    2. aapoman
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      3-0

    3. Baravan
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      2-0
      Richarlison & Mina

  15. Barnabus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    79 points from this lot thanks to Captain Mo.

    Ramsdale
    TAA VVD Doherty
    Salah Auba Perez ASM
    Werner Wilson Adams

    Steer Taylor Bissouma Mitchell

    A) Werner > DCL
    B) save ft
    C) WC

    1. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Big B for me

      1. Barnabus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        Would that change if I'm planning to WC gw3?

        1. The Knights Template
          • 6 Years
          8 days, 4 hours ago

          No

  16. Atimis
    • 4 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Do only Ings to Martial or worth going for Bruno - Son Ings and Bruno DCL? DCL looking good considering the Everton's fixtures.

  17. Xna
    • 5 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    A) Kane + Havertz -> Martial + Rashford (-4)
    B) Havertz or Alli to James Rodriguez (FT)
    C) afk and remain patient (big challenge :D)

  18. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Viagra (70k), Werner(166k) and Mitro (130k) being sold in droves. Knee is starting to twitch.

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Really werner being sold that much, had a good game

    2. Little Red Lacazette
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      I have all 3 lol

  19. Tinmen
    • 7 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Folks, which option would you go for?

    Son and Nketiah to

    A) Hames and DCL
    B) Bruno and Brewster

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      A because who says Brewster starts when he transfers

      1. Kloppcorn
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        *If

  20. J to the T
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Best 4.5 replacement for Saliba?

    Have Justin already.

    1. PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Taylor

    2. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Burnley defender maybe, one of Brighton’s might be good

      1. J to the T
        • 3 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        Any love for Lewis from Newcastle out there? Looked good going forward at the weekend

    3. Boberella
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Lamptey

  21. Kloppcorn
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Did anyone watch wolves last night? Looking at a couple of their players after the city game, I’m particularly interested in getting podence, how did he play?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Looked good but lots of competition for the support roles around Jimenez. Podence competing with Neto, Traore, Jota and Silva

    2. Barnabus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      looked lively, will get returns in their decent fixtures from gw3-7 IMO.

    3. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Thank you guys will most likely be getting him in GW3 for ASM, anybody else play well?

    4. Wılly
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Podence, Fabio, Neto, Adama and Jota are all likely to get minutes in attacking positions. The only nailed starters are likely to be Patricio, Coady, Boly and potentially Saiss.

      1. Tempestic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        8 days, 2 hours ago

        And Jimenez

  22. cescpistols111
    • 5 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Any changes you would make for a hit? 0FT, 0.0 ITB.

    Ramsdale
    Robertson Davies Justin
    Salah Auba (c) Rashford (v) ASM
    Werner DCL Adams

    Nyland Taylor Bissouma Mitchell

  23. Energetics
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Who do we think will take Everton’s pens with Siggy not starting?

    1. aapoman
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      James

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Richarlison or Rodriguez

    3. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Not sure at all mate at a guess: Gomez, DCL

    4. Runaway
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Actually, Digne would be a decent penalty taker 🙂

  24. jay01
    • 6 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Decided against Havertz to James Rodriguez. Have a plan to bring in Hames later. I believe Havertz is a baller that will improve. Imo nailed in the team. Lampard wouldnt drop him for one performance getting match fit. Knees braced.

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Yep go with your gut mate, I think ppl are twitched on those two too much

    2. Boberella
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Agree. I’m keeping Havertz for a bit longer. Think he will settle nicely and frank surely won’t bench him in his 2nd game.

    3. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      That might be a big confidence blow for a young man

    4. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Hamertz will come good, just a question of time...wait for another game

    5. Invincibles
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Bruno blanked on his debut..

  25. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    What to think about Greenwood? Is he nailed until Man U buy a replacement? Is he in danger with DVB now maybe in another system..?

    1. Kloppcorn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      I wouldn’t get him in atm with everything going on with him

  26. cassanata
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    How nailed on is Shaw?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Not really, Williams about and they keep getting linked with LBs

    2. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      100% until they sign a new one, which they are trying to do

    3. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 5 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Have you seen him lately? Lost loads of weight. Could be a revelation.

  27. Boberella
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    ASM to J Rod for a hit?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Not when ASM has Brighton at home

      1. Boberella
        • 3 Years
        8 days, 4 hours ago

        But Everton have WBA at home

  28. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Alli...worth selling or not?
    A. Alli—> James R., FT
    B. Auba+Alli —> Bruno+Son/Rashford, -4
    C. Keep Alli

  29. Siva Mohan
    • 8 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    Sheffield United and Crystal Palace have both held talks with Liverpool over a deal for Rhian Brewster – but Liverpool have yet to decide whether the 20-year old will be allowed to leave in this window. (Source: Sky Sports)

    1. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      From Liverpool’s reserved, to palace’s bench. Elite.

    2. CelticBhoy1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      Would be a good addition for either

  30. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    8 days, 4 hours ago

    How nailed do we think Reece James will be?

    1. Giggs Boson
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 days, 4 hours ago

      When Chilwell and Azpilcueta are fully fit, I think he might be benched, or rotated at least. Could be wrong.

      Might still be worth a short-term punt...