Spot the Differential

In-form FPL differential Watkins set for favourable fixture run after Foxes test

Gameweek 4 saw one of our differential picks, Leandro Trossard (£6.0m), deliver for his owners, while former column favourites Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and Ryan Fraser (£5.9m) also registered attacking returns.

There’s no shortage of candidates to consider this week, either.

This time, we’ve selected differentials from Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Manchester United, who we like the look of for Gameweek 5 and beyond.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Ollie Watkins

Making Sense of the Chaos 1
  • FPL ownership: 3.5%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: lei | LEE | SOU | ars | BHA

Ollie Watkins (£5.9m) has got off to a flying start at Aston Villa, having arrived in Birmingham last month for a club-record fee of £28m.

After scoring in a pre-season friendly against Manchester United, he has since bagged a goal on his debut against Burton Albion in the Carabao Cup and hit a hat-trick in the 7-2 win over Liverpool. It’s now five goals in six games in all competitions, and you get the feeling he’s just getting started.

The 24-year-old, who scored 26 goals in the Championship last term, has very few weaknesses to his game. He is a quick, strong and extremely hard-working forward, who is equally comfortable holding up the ball or offering a threat in behind. The breakdown of last season’s goals also backs up his all-rounder tag: 16 were scored from inside the penalty area, eight from inside the six-yard box, with two coming from long-range. He is also capable with both feet – he netted 10 with his right foot, seven with his left foot and eight with his head.

Since making his debut in Gameweek 2, Watkins ranks joint-fourth for shots in the box, joint-second for big chances and third for chances created amongst forwards, which suggests points will arrive from both goals and assists.

He now faces a Leicester City defence that has conceded seven goals in their last three league outings, and may be without key centre-back Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.5m). The real appeal, however, lies in what’s to come, with an appealing schedule that runs right up until Gameweek 15.

Priced at just £5.9m, Watkins was recently labelled “undefendable” by Jürgen Klopp. If he can now kick on and build on that performance against Liverpool, he may well be the pick of the budget FPL forwards.

Vicente Guaita

  • FPL ownership: 4.6%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: BHA | ful | wol | LEE | bur

After arriving from Getafe in summer 2018, Vicente Guaita (£5.0m) has gone on to establish himself as one of Crystal Palace’s most influential players.

The 33-year-old was the Eagles’ stand-out performer last season, combining 10 clean sheets with 16 bonus points and 27 save points. As a result, his total of 137 points was bettered by only six goalkeepers.

Although far from the most attacking of teams, Roy Hodgson has done a good job making Palace one of the most organised sides around. His players are well drilled and understand their roles, which has ensured a steady stream of clean sheets over the years.

This season, a win against Southampton on the opening day was followed by another victory at Manchester United, which showcased their defensive qualities and threat on the counter-attack. Even in the defeat at Everton there were positives. However, their 4-0 defeat at Chelsea last time out felt like a throwback to their terrible form during Project Restart. Still, six points on the board, considering their schedule, is a good enough start.

Palace welcome Brighton and Hove Albion this weekend. The M23 derby is usually a tight affair, with the last three league meetings separated by one goal or fewer. After that, their fixture run looks promising, with a decent-looking sequence of matches right up until mid-December.

Guaita’s numbers consistently rank amongst the best goalkeepers in the league, and with his outstanding shot-stopping ability, he could be a nice differential for those on the lookout for a new keeper.

Mason Greenwood

should-we-be-planning-for-manchester-united-fpl-attacking-players 5
  • FPL ownership: 5.0%
  • Price: £7.3m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: new | CHE | ARS | eve | WBA

Having made a huge impact towards the end of the 2019/20 season, Mason Greenwood’s (£7.3m) reclassification to a midfielder by FPL was met with widespread enthusiasm in the community, and understandably so.

He netted five times in just eight league starts post-lockdown, helping Manchester United secure a top-three finish and Champions League football.

However, so far this season, things haven’t quite gone to plan.

Greenwood, a product of United’s academy, has made four appearances for the Red Devils, with his only goal contributions arriving in the Carabao Cup. Playing out on the right wing, he has often looked isolated, leading him to snatch at shots when he has had an opportunity.

An error of judgement with England resulted in Gareth Southgate leaving him out of his latest squad, which has meant he has been able to rest these last couple of weeks, and the hope is now that the break will have done him good, providing the physical and mental respite needed.

This weekend, a trip to Newcastle United gives United the chance to get back on track, and with Anthony Martial (£8.8m) and Edinson Cavani (£8.0m) unavailable, we could see Greenwood leading the line as a central striker. Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) and Odion Ighalo (£6.3m) are other options but it would seem to make sense that Greenwood is moved to play in his natural position with either Daniel James (£6.4m) or Juan Mata (£5.9m) playing from the right.

A skilful forward who has excellent finishing abilities, Greenwood can become a top number nine in years to come, and if given an opportunity to put forward his credentials this weekend, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him get on the scoresheet.


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475 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Top Lad Dakes.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Kevin replacements? 😆 for a hit

    Son Hamez Salah Podence other mids.

    Dare I say... Bale?

  2. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Aguero in on WC?

    1. @fpl_phenom
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Id just put kane in and switch once city are back firing

    2. Little Red Lacazette
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      No. Kane.

  3. pablo discobar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Kdb to Pulisic for me. Allows me to get hamez and grealish next week

  4. drughi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Think I will wildcard now and use kdb money on Kane and Son double up.

    1. El Presidente
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Mistake

    2. drughi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      easy switch from Kane>Aguero in a couple of weks to

      1. AnfieldLad
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Yeah I think Aguero being back makes Kane a great pick on wildcard just because it makes the switch so easy

    3. Little Red Lacazette
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Why wildcard because of 1 player?

  5. COK3Y5MURF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    What about Sterling?

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      I'm thinking about him

      1. COK3Y5MURF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        I mean, is he fit?

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          LOL okay.
          No idea sorry

  6. El Presidente
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 10 days ago

    KDB owners, what say YOU?

    1. DA Minnion
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Out on wildcard.

      1. El Presidente
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 10 days ago

        WC because of 1 player a bit.... rash?

        1. DA Minnion
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          On wildcard anyway.

  7. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    The risky early transfer of KDB out can't backfire too horribly now, at least.

    1. Wiseman Resistant ⚽⚠
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Who was your replacement ?
      I will do kdb to son for free. Only lost 0.1 on son rise, but its safe move 🙂

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Son

  8. Wiseman Resistant ⚽⚠
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    De Bruyne out, Aguero is training well.

    Omg, how many WCs will destroy Kun Aguero...

    1. Would Ed Woodward
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 10 days ago

      I don't think I'd want Kun over Kane without KDB playing.

  9. Pompel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    KDB -> Salah it is then. Annoying about tonight's price rice , though

  10. AnfieldLad
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    KDB -> Son (c) it is then

  11. beetlejuice
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Salah worths 0.4/0.5 more than Mane?

    1. AnfieldLad
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      I’d say so yeah

  12. Top Lad Dakes.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Is Pulisic definitely fit to start?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Yes but not sure if that guarantees he starts

  13. Kakashi Of The Leaf
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Kane or Kun on WC?

    Have Son

    1. Wiseman Resistant ⚽⚠
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      You know who is the FPL legend

      1. Kakashi Of The Leaf
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        I have a soft spot for him too.

    2. HMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Son shouldn't come into it
      I think Kane will outscore Kun over the next 4, then you can make that switch

    3. tuvok
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      After those comments by Pep (as well as training photos) I'm thinking Aguero might start. Kane definitely the safe choice but there is something really exciting about getting 1.3% owned Aguero

  14. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Kdb to Mane for a hit is madness right?

    1. Puntillimon
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Hard to say, pool missed mane that’s for sure

  15. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Already have Salah and Son
    A) KDB to Sterling
    B) KDB and Jimenez to Grealish and Kane-4
    C) KDB and Podence to Grealish and Rodrigues-4

    1. Big Weng
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Im doing C I think

  16. Taegugk Warrior
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Kdb to sterling for -4..?

    1. AnfieldLad
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Maybe if you captain Sterling and don’t think so KDB worsens Sterling as a pick

      1. Iceball
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        What about that move for free?

        1. AnfieldLad
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Yeah I’d say KDB to whoever you want is a good idea for a FT

  17. ElliotJHP
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    The big call then with the extra Son cash

    A) Ings +4
    B) Kane

    1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Take the hit. It will pay off over the next 4 weeks

  18. Big Weng
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Martinez | Forster

    James | Mitchell | Justin | Robbo | Saiss

    Salah | KDB | Foden | Podence | Anguissa

    Werner | DCL | Jimenez

    .1ITB and 2 FT

    KDB & Podence > Son & Grealish or Jrod?

  19. rnrd
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    I have both Son and Kane. Which one would you Captain.

    Looks like there's some fitness/fatigue issue with Kane, so I believe it is safer to go with Son. I'm not sure Kane will play the full 90 if the game is won and I can see a goal galore for the last 15min if Bale is thrown in along with Son

    1. Puntillimon
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      I’m currently on kane purely due to the fact that I think he’ll be more involved in the goals whether assisting or scoring. But yes, your reasoning makes sense. Will have a think again

  20. Niho992
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Is KdB to Son for free no brainer?

    1. DA Minnion
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Yes

    2. Taegugk Warrior
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Absolutely

  21. DA Minnion
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Any word on Chilwell?

    1. The Mantis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      he's in training apparently

  22. tuvok
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    I know the KDB news is the big story & gives us certainty. But what about these comments on Aguero:

    Sergio is training well and we are happy. Every team needs a striker and we played without them. He has been training good and we’re happy to see him back on the pitch after a long time.

    Likely he might be thrown straight in? Arsenal don't have great defensive stats. A risk, I know, but what do you think?

    1. HMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      don't forget they have champions league too next week

  23. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    WC Draft #258

    Martinez/(Ryan)
    Robbo, Reguilon, (Lamptey), Dallas, (KWP)
    Trossard, JRod, Salah, Son (Jorginho)
    DCL, Aguero, Watkins
    1.4m itb.

  24. JBG
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Play Bissouma or Kdb to Fernandes/Sterling for -4?(-8 total, had to take out Vinagre for a hit).

  25. Sprets
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Kane or Son for captain?

      1. JBG
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Kane imo, I only have Son. Wish I had Kane for this GW.

        1. Little Red Lacazette
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Wish? You still have time to make your wish come true.

    • Top Lad Dakes.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Would you punt on Bale in for hit for KDB?

      Or prefer a Chelsea mid? Got Son Salah Hamez

      1. HMC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        has bale even been declared fit to play?

    • Johnny too hotty
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      n my WC and tempted to not Watkins over DCL and not have Hames at all.
      Looking at these posts i would be only person to not own either. crazy?

    • KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Play Pulisic or Brewster?

    • Kabayan
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      -4 already.
      Bench : Mitchell and Lamptey

      Another -4 : KDB to Salah.
      Yes or No?

    • Teriyaki 69
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Have son and Salah and no ft.

      Is KDB to mane for -4 a good move. Will swap back to Kdb obviously.

      1. Puntillimon
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Could come good