Spot the Differential

Differential Lowton can exploit Fulham and Palace’s weak left flanks in Double Gameweek 24

Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £19.99. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99. A FREE trial is now available during December.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/894/history”

1,526 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Pépé Pig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Play Son or Soucek?

    1. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Son just

    2. Goonerly
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Soucek

    3. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Soucek

    4. pwill40
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Son

    5. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Son

    6. Sid07
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Soucek

    7. PURPLE-RONNIE
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Son

    8. Jafooli
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Soucek

    9. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Son

    10. Zladan
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Obviously Son.

  2. Alisson WondHaaland
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    What to do with DCL? He has a DGW26 of Wba + Sot but Id have to hold him through Liv and Mci (if he even plays)

    A) Sell for Cavani

    B) Hold for now

    With either option, I could do a further upgrade to Kane in DGW 26 but Id be more reluctant to do so if I held DCL

    1. moz_1983
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      I'm tempted by a straight swap for Richarlison as a one week punt, I'll then be bringing Kane back in after the City game.

      1. Alisson WondHaaland
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Fair. For me theres other transfers I need to do so a 1 week punt is a bit of a stretch. Also I do want to monitor Kane before bringing him in considering he just came back from injury

      2. Hiddenpaw
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Im thinking this too. Richa is due in the league. My issue is it would be for a -4. If I dont do it I have Martial in for DCL off the bench.

    2. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 5 days ago

      B

  3. Jafooli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Well, cash isn’t really an issue at the moment. Had between 5-10m ITB since Xmas....and can’t see myself spending all anytime soon

    1. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Tight so and so. Buy Mrs Jafooli something nice for Sunday.

      1. Jafooli
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Might treat her to a King size Pot Noodle....

        1. Rainer
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 5 days ago

          Such a charmer 😎

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Kane in next week?

      1. Jafooli
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Week after I think.

        Raphine next week...

    3. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Sounds like a posh Xmas u had

      1. Jafooli
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Saved on a tree and decorations, just used all the spare big roll instead...

  4. pwill40
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    2 quandaries...

    1. start DCL or Bamford

    2. Who to transfer
    a. Son for Sterling
    b. Soucek for Foden

    1. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      I'm starting Bamford, benching DCL

    2. Sid07
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Bamford
      A

    3. Miro
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      bamford, sterling

  5. Sid07
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    1) Antonio to Richarlson
    2) antonio to ings
    3) play antonio ( coufal 1st sub)

    1. Pukki Party
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      1

    2. PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      3

  6. denial
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Team after - 4

    Pope
    Cancelo Dias Coufal
    Salah Bruno Grealish Soucek Gundogen
    Bamford Antonio

    / DCL / Dallas / Mitchell

    G2G or another change?

  7. pingissimus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    WC this lot. All the usual suspects knackered

    Digne
    Dias
    Antonio
    DCL
    Justin

    I’m left with

    Mendy (Steer)
    Cancelo Targett
    Mo Bruno Barnes Grealish Gundo
    Bamford

    1. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Dias should play

    2. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Antonio probably OK too. Just Digne to Lowton?

    3. moz_1983
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      I'd expect Digne and Antonio to start this coming gameweek. Possible you could get away with it using whatever FTs you may have or even a hit.

  8. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Is Struijk a good option for DGW25?

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      No

      1. Jellyfish
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        He is if you already have him

    2. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      No

  9. Jellyfish
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Noticed DCL has dropped to 50% on fpl. With City as their second fix it is very tempting to drop him now with Son and Grealish on my bench!

    1. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Grealish doesn’t belong on benches.

      1. Jellyfish
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Neither does Son

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 5 days ago

      DCL out Sunday, will likely play against City. Definitely drop.

  10. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Thoughts here with 2FT and 0.3m. Plan to BB26, FH29, WC31

    Martinez -- Forster
    Stones Cancelo Digne Coufal
    Gundog Bruno Rashford Grealish Salah
    Antonio

    Forster DCL Bamford Dallas

    A: Coufal >> Lowton and roll other transfer
    B: Something else? cant think of anything else. Suggestions?

  11. Plonatron
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 5 days ago

    haven't heard anything about Digne's injury, still yellow flagged.

    Anyone seen any news?

    1. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Don’t think he was injured.

      Fatigue/tired in ET, weird flag from FPL.

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 5 days ago

      He signing a contract extension. That's the only news.

  12. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Can I get some advice on my next move to make?

    Martinez
    Stones / Maguire / Cancelo
    Salah (c) / Son / Bruno / Grealish / Gundo
    DCL* / Antonio*

    Forster, Bamord, Coufal / Bissouma, Douglas

    I have 1FT and 1itb.

    I have all of my chips left (except Free hit) and I reckon i'll wildcard next week for the doubles.

    1. DIMITRIS
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      DCL to Ings seems good to me.

  13. ShaunGoater123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Bottomed on a previous page

    think i'm set on a -4 doing the following 3 transfers and hoping Antonio plays, if not bamfrod comes in:

    Stones > Mee
    Son > Sterling
    DCL > Ings

    Pope
    Maguire / Cancelo / Mee
    Salah / Sterling (C) / Soucek / Gundogan / Fernandes
    Ings / Antonio

    McCarthy / Bamford / Targett / Dallas

    Son or Kane can come in for 26, or maybe even wildcard if needed

  14. wildnothing
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Gtg to anything worth a hit?

    Martinez
    Lowton Mee Cancelo
    Sterling (c) Bruno Salah Gündogan
    Lacazette Watkins Antonio

    4.0 Grealish Coufal Dallas

    Maybe play Grealish instead of Laca? He could start on the bench tomorrow maybe with Auba up front?

  15. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Is DCL essential for 26? Only way for me to get Kane is by losing him...

    1. SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Their fixtures are good..am planning to ship him this gw and get back in place of Antonio.

  16. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    What are thoughts on moving from 2 City defenders to 2 mids?

    For free moves would be Grealish or Salah to Sterling and Cancelo or Dias to Lowton - thinking Grealish to Sterling and Cancelo to Lowton- yes or no?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      I'm tempted as i'm chasing.

    2. drughi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      looking at son and stones > lowton and sterling (C)

    3. MOTHRA
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Yes

  17. Jellyfish
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Who to play from the following:

    a) Bamford
    b) Grealish
    c) Son

    1. DIMITRIS
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      B

  18. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    My transfer is done. DCL > Ings. Gonna roll the extra FT.

    GL all!

    1. DIMITRIS
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Good luck!

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Good luck

    3. AC/DC AFC
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Good luck.

      Sensible approach.

      My season is such I'm pretty tempted by the Sterling switch up still.

      If i do may need to TC to fully back it up.

      I guess i will and deal with the injuries later on Justin etc.

      Will decide tonight and hit the button in the morning.

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        I actually STILL haven't ruled it out.

        I can do it for a -4. Will sleep on it but leaning away because it effectively means that I'm giving up one of Salah and Kane come GW26.

    4. The 12th Man
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      I’d make that move if I didn’t have Coufal,Soucek and Son on the bench to come in.

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        I have 2 FTs so have to use one anyway. Might as well get ahead of the curve.

        1. The 12th Man
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 5 days ago

          Yep good move. Only one here. I’d kick myself if I used it for Ings or Bamford this week and they got injured before the double.

  19. DIMITRIS
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 5 days ago

    Are there any news on Pope and Antonio?
    Will they play?

    1. The Wogmeister
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Pope was good to go yesterday, Antonio is a probability says Moyes

        1. DIMITRIS
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 5 days ago

          Thanks!

      • Bushwhacker
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Pope yes, Antonio likely.

        1. DIMITRIS
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 5 days ago

          Thank you!

    2. boc610
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      its amazing how managers will rush a player back with hammys and ankle injuries in relation to how important they are to the team. Kane had two ankle injuries and only missed a handfull of games. DCL has already had a hammy injury and yet is some how going to be for city game after feeling tightness. if it was someone like Bernard or Winks they'd get the proper time to rest. they really are treated like cattle. Kane has had so many ankle injuries now and it feels like he's going to have many more in the future simply because he has come back to quickly.

      1. Bushwhacker
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 5 days ago

        That's why they have sports scientists. TBH even though I fell for it the Kane injury always seemed a bit suspect, it's not like he was stretchered off or hacked to bits.

      2. JIMMY764
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Trouble is, we effectively have no idea about anything to do with their injuries or recovery details etc. Impossible to judge.

    3. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Did Woy mention anything about Zaha injury?

    4. Hryszko
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Am I G2G? Think I've decided to just roll my FT and keep it for next week...

      Martinez
      Stones - Dias - Shaw
      Salah - Gundo - Bruno - Raphina - Soucek
      Antonio - Bamford

      Bench order: Meslier - Coufal - Dier - DCL

    5. Captain_Shirokov
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      Apologies, sure this has been asked.

      Updates on the following from today's pressers?

      Antonio
      DCL
      Dias

      1. JIMMY764
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Reading between the lines I think Antonio will be fine, Moyes was vague about it tbf.
        DCL out for fulham, possibly back for city.
        Dias is fine.

        1. Captain_Shirokov
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 5 days ago

          Thanks

    6. Tonyawesome69 FHXX
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      For the post I've seen that are considering to bench Bamford, go see his npxG in the link below

      https://twitter.com/analytic_fpl/status/1360240011451510784?s=19

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 5 days ago

        People are mad

    7. Elly88 > KTR (Kevin The …
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 5 days ago

      From the Man City presser, what is the probability of Dias and Rodri starting versus Spurs?

      1. hullcityfan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 5 days ago

        Both almost certain to.

    8. Finding Timo
        2 months, 5 days ago

        All, help on this appreciated please.. A) Justin & DCL to mee & ings or B) Justin & Bowen to mee & Rodriguez?

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 5 days ago

          B if you want DCL For gw26

          1. Finding Timo
              2 months, 5 days ago

              Everton likely to get DGw26? I guess I can always transfer out this week and get back ?

              1. Pukki Blinders
                • 1 Year
                2 months, 5 days ago

                Yes they are 95-99% likely

                1. Finding Timo
                    2 months, 5 days ago

                    Ok cheers

                  • Finding Timo
                      2 months, 5 days ago

                      What about I go a) this week And replace DCL, then swap Antonio for DCL gw26?

            • Pukki Blinders
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 5 days ago

              Start Dallas or Son?

              1. Pat Bonner
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                2 months, 5 days ago

                Son

              2. Gudjohnsen
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 5 days ago

                Son

            • Gudjohnsen
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 5 days ago

              Play Soucek or Digne?

            • suddenorgan
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 5 days ago

              if Spurs are likely to have a game GW29, it should be possible to get a good BB team GW26 and a reasonable (though maybe not 11) for GW29 right?

              I'm seeing people mentioning WC GW30 and struggling to see the upside.

            • Dybala10
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 5 days ago

              Any idea when these rearranged fixtures will happen?

              DCL has two DGW so not sure whether to ship or not?

              1. suddenorgan
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 5 days ago

                are you wildcarding next week?

                1. Dybala10
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  2 months, 5 days ago

                  Honestly, not a clue

                  1. suddenorgan
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 5 days ago

                    haha, me neither, finding it very hard to parse this one.. there's also not an obvious DGW striker replacement for this week which is making benching him more tempting