Spot the Differential

Odegaard’s creativity can help provide FPL value in BGW29 and beyond

Blank Gameweek 29 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Fulham and Brighton and Hove Albion, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Martin Ødegaard

Can Martin Ødegaard live up to his potential and become a top FPL asset?
  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: whu | LIV | shu | FUL | EVE

Martin Ødegaard (£6.0m) has made a real impact at Arsenal since joining from Real Madrid on loan in January.

The Norwegian international has now started seven of the Gunners’ last nine matches in all competitions, predominantly as a number 10, and has repaid his manager’s faith with important goals against Olympiacos and Tottenham Hotspur.

His displays have seen him become the focal point of the side, which is reflected in his numbers.

Since making his first league start last month, Ødegaard ranks first amongst team-mates for successful passes in the final-third and joint-top for chances created, while his total of four shots over the last two matches highlights his increasing goal threat. His ability to make himself free on the edge of the box is a really nice part of his game, and having taken a few corners too, there is lots to like.

Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Spurs in the north London derby leaves Mikel Arteta’s side 10 points adrift of the top four. However, a win against West Ham United this weekend would allow them to close the gap, and they have momentum. In fact, since Boxing Day, they sit fourth in the Premier League form table, having collected 27 points from their last 14 matches.

In a relatively short space of time, Ødegaard has become an integral part of this Arsenal side, and could be a useful budget differential for the run-in.

Tosin Adarabioyo

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEE | avl | WOL | ars | –

Fulham defender Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.5m) has been a crucial part of Fulham’s defensive improvement this season.

Before his arrival in October, the Cottagers had shipped 11 goals in their opening four matches of the campaign. However, they have gradually improved since, and have now conceded just five in their last eight outings. 

During that time, the 23-year-olds partnership with Dane Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) has helped Scott Parker’s side register five clean sheets, and with Alphonse Areola (£4.6m) excelling in goal, bringing in a Fulham defender this week could be a shrewd move.

Their opponents in Gameweek 29, Leeds United, have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Adarabioyo’s threat from set-pieces could be another route to points, too. The centre-back has produced 15 headed attempts from set-plays this term, a team-leading total, which is particularly relevant given that defending dead-ball situations has been an achilles heel throughout Marcelo Bielsa’s time at Elland Road. 

It’s another huge game for Fulham, who currently sit in the relegation zone but can move up to 17th with a win. Beyond that, there are winnable matches against Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle United before the end of the season, so there is potential to hold their assets long-term.

Adarabioyo has established himself as a key player for Fulham this season, and with an FPL ownership of just 0.9%, could be a useful differential.

Danny Welbeck

Welbeck ready to profit from Brighton's appealing run of fixtures
  • FPL ownership: 0.4%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: NEW | mun | EVE | che | shu

Following the inclusion of Joël Veltman (£4.4m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.5m).

After several substitute appearances, the 30-year-old returned to Brighton and Hove Albion’s starting XI last weekend and was central to their win, providing the assist for Leandro Trossard’s (£5.8m) second-half strike.

The former Manchester United and Arsenal forward has now been directly involved in five goals this term, despite being limited to just 15 appearances and eight starts. That suggests he can make a notable impact when on the pitch, and with Newcastle United up next, he could be worth a look.

The Magpies have been poor on the road this season, and have won just three of their 14 Premier League away games. During that time, only Leeds United have a worse expected goals conceded (xGC) total, while they also rank in the bottom three for attempts in the box and shots on target conceded.

While Brighton have often flattered to deceive under Graham Potter, the return of Adam Lallana (£6.2m) can help them kick on. Against Southampton, he was pulling the strings in a slightly deeper role, and if he can stay fit for the remainder of the season, then Albion’s survival chances will receive a massive boost.

Welbeck has a big role to play too, and could be a nice under the radar option in Blank Gameweek 29.

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942 Comments Post a Comment
  1. TFP
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Which midfielder for the next two weeks? Planning a GW31 WC. Money no object.

    (a) Bale [avl, new];
    (b) Lingard [ARS, wol];
    (c) Lookman (LEE, avl);
    (d) Someone else [I'm already maxed out on Leeds & Villa players].

    1. fpork
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Probably Bale. But it depends on which player you will have to remove.

    2. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      I gambled on Bale and hoping he can replicate some of his recent home form.

      Alternative for me was Auba

  2. jonnybhoy
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Afternoon all

    Any thoughts on this? 1FT.

    Martinez
    Konsa Coufal (Cancelo Stones Rudiger)
    Soucek Son (Salah Gundo Fernandes)
    Bamford Kane Watkins

    A) Cancelo to Veltman/Dallas
    B) Gundo to Raphina
    C) A+B for -4pts
    D) Gundo to Lingard
    E) both B and D for -4pts

    Currently on B but unsure

  3. Jebiga
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Salah and Brewster going out with 2FT. So what is the best move:

    1. Auba and Antonio/Watkins
    2. Lingard and Lacazete
    3. Bale and Antonio/Watkins
    4. Something else
    ?

  4. NETFLIX & CHILWELL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    No love for Lacazette after his rest last night?

    1. Jebiga
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Im thinking...

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Wasn't he poor in the NLD - possibly misremembering. But it's away to one of the best defences about.

  5. jonnybhoy
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Interested to hear what people who have Cancelo and Stones plan do with them. Personally on wildcard 30/31 getting rid of Cancelo and going with Gundo + KDB with Stones

  6. Jebiga
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Do you think Grealish will play ?
    He can easily smash Spurs...

    1. Kadi_J
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Yes and yes

      1. Nanoelektronicar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Why he wasn't in the England squad then? And is "living in a real world" Smith winding us up with quote "Grealish had not even trained with his team-mates as of Friday, however, and went on to say that he can "pretty much guarantee he’ll be ready for the Fulham game after the international break" "

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Think he might

      But it's an awful long time since Villa came close to smashing anyone. They were really poor in the last game he did play - Brighton iirc.

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Don't think he'll go straight from a few weeks out to starting - at least one sub appearance may make more sense to ease him back in & prevent any negative reaction to the injury

  7. Fantasydreamer
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    What’s the best option?

    A. Get Dawson and keep
    B. Roll transfer and get Chelsea defender next week
    C. Get Dawson and swap to Chelsea defender next week (potentially -4)

    1. 2's Kompany 3's M…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      B, but only just.

  8. HD7
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Laca better option than Auba after last night?

    1. Kadi_J
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Not long-term but this week maybe

  9. Kadi_J
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Probability of starting this GW??

    1) Struijk
    2) ESM
    3) Burn
    4) Son

    My guess is

    1) 80%
    2) 65%
    3) 50%
    4) 20%

  10. DA Minnion (In Bielsa we tr…
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Son or Grealish worth a hit to anyone ?
    Or just keep and hope for a cameo.

    1. Nanoelektronicar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Not worth a hit imo, because they are likely to play in 30 and have favorable fixtures.

  11. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    I've made my transfers.

    Salah + DCL + Cancelo > Auba + Kane + Veltman -4

    Good luck all! Have not felt like discussing or thinking about FPL this week. It really is such an uninspiring week.

    1. S.Kuqi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Good moves gl

    2. KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      And captain ?

    3. KUNingas
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      I will likely make excatly same moves. Still pondering should I go Dunk over Veltman (Veltman gives opportunity to do Auba -> KDB next week).

  12. hustler7
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Martinez
    Dallas Veltman Konsa
    Soucek Son*
    Kane Bamford

    McCarthy Gundo Dias Rudiger DCLall blanking

    Son to Raphina, Odegaard, or Lingard? Plan to WC 31.

  13. tiger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    Who to bring in for the next 2 GW's:

    1. Cresswell
    2. Dunk

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      1

  14. Cookie Kid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    bottomed:

    Bale in on a -4 (for Salah)?

    One eye on Newcastle away in 30, with Salah at Arsenal.

    1. 2's Kompany 3's M…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Wish I knew the answer to that one.
      If in doubt be bold and go for it.

  15. Athletico Underachieving
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Deadline day doubts about triple Brighton defence. Anything to change? Chasing a 70 point deficit...

      Sanchez,
      Dunk, Dallas,Cresswell, Veltman
      Grealish Auba Lingard, Bale
      Kane (c) Bamf

      Areola, Raph, Antonio, Targett

    • Dirty Harry
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Quick vote before I hit the hay:

      Salah, Gundo, Cancelo > Bale, Trossard, Dunk (-4)

      1. Yay
      2. Nay

      1. 2's Kompany 3's M…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        2

    • Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Odegaard a better pick than Auba if playing nro 10 and nailed as it seems? Thoughts?

      1. vincentwsho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        I think so, at least for this week.. at least he would get more minutes

    • Big Hands Barry
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Blank gameweek. Nowhere near a starting 11. Which players are worth a hit for one week only? (4+ potential)

    • Shark Team
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Son to Bale for a hit? Son scored 0/11 Spurs goals when Bale and Kane started alongside him

      1. Nanoelektronicar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Still provided with assists, and Bale could be dropped/play limited minutes anyway.

    • Konstaapeli
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Here's my team:

      Areola
      Elmo* - Dallas
      Bale - Son*
      Bamford* - Kane

      I think Son is out. Cash is back so Elmo likely to be benched. Bamford should play.

      Only 1 FT. Any point saving FH for later?

      1. Bubbles1985
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        I would use FH pers5

        1. Bubbles1985
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Personally *

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Yep. Cheers.

      2. Stupendous
        • 8 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        You need to use FH. You could have 5 players max without.

        1. Konstaapeli
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          I think I do.

      3. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Thing is if you put Dunk and Lingard in you're pretty close to covering all the major risks and only slightly worse off than most at cost of -4

        The lure of possible major DGW35 would make me hold.

        1. Konstaapeli
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          This (possible DGW35) is the thing I'm having trouble with. So, Elmo+Foden to Dunk+Lingard for -4?

          1. pingissimus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            That's how I'd play it

            No idea of OR and chip situation but judging from on here you'd be a player down on many competitive sides who are going with 8.

            I've got 10 plus Son but that includes double Villa defence - it'd only take a Brighton cs and you'd be level me more or less

    • Bubbles1985
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Kane still nailed and good for captain surely?

      Last night was not great for FPL but praying they bounce back at the weekend!

      1. Konstaapeli
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Villa will just pile up the agony.

        1. Bubbles1985
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Well it's Kane or Lingard for me. 😀

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            I'll likely captain Kane also. He can score any game. But 120 mins last night wasn't ideal 😀

      2. Etern007
          4 months, 8 days ago

          I'm currently going Lingard. I reserve the right to change my mind to Kane at the last minute, but I need to catch up points and I think the league I'm in will default to Kane.

      3. Stupendous
        • 8 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Boom! Living dangerously!

        3.1m itb 0ft

        Martinez
        Dunk(c)** Cresswell Dallas
        Auba Bale Raph Lingard
        Kane(v) Antonio Bamford

        Pope Stones Gundo Digne

        1. Holmes
          • 7 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Both are 2pointers, so nothing to worry about...

      4. Jafooli
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Anyone dabbling in a bit of benchwonkery this GW? 😎

        1. Stupendous
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Benchwonkery?

          Pope Stones Gundo Digne

          No wonkery

          1. Jafooli
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Bench a couple confirmed players and they’ll defo come on for that lot 😉

        2. Holmes
          • 7 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          yep, for sure. Leeds players firmly on bench

          1. Jafooli
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            All three?

            1. Holmes
              • 7 Years
              4 months, 8 days ago

              yep

              1. Jafooli
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                4 months, 8 days ago

                Might join you and that little ruse....

                1. Holmes
                  • 7 Years
                  4 months, 8 days ago

                  Once I tried 4 bench players including GK. Someone said, that only 3 auto subs are possible, had a cold feet that day 😆

        3. Pipermaru
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Count me in, watch live.fpl crash at Sunday night with all the autosubs... plus people weeping that they've lost hundred of thousands places in OR 😛

          1. Rover
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            I think livefpl considers blanks as having blanked at the start of the GW itself, so at any point during the BGW the shown rank includes autosubs like this.

            1. Pipermaru
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              4 months, 8 days ago

              I am exaggerating a little bit for dramatic purposes 🙂

        4. Rover
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Of course! Setting up my bus team for GW30 basically besides a transfer and captaincy.

      5. Jet5605
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Which combo to get: Already have Coufal

        A - Cresswell
        B - Dunk

        1 - Bale
        2 - Auba
        3 - Any better option?

        1. Jet5605
          • 6 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Already have Lingard and Raph

        2. Stupendous
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          All 4

          1. Jet5605
            • 6 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            I assume you're like 8 years old

            1. Stupendous
              • 8 Years
              4 months, 8 days ago

              I'm like so not like 8 years old

        3. artvandelay316
            4 months, 8 days ago

            A.

        4. gonzalocampos
          • 6 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Cancelo or Dias for Dallas?
          2nd and 3rd on my ML own Cancelo, shield or risk? (I am leading w WC in hand).

          1. aleksios
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Dias.

          2. Keeptrying
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Cancelo out.
            He will be rotated more than Dias.
            But lose Dias if it makes you sleep easier!

        5. aleksios
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          On -4.Another hit required?

          --Martinez
          --Cresswell--Dunk--Targett--Dallas
          --Bale--Raphinia--Lingard
          --Kane--Bam.

          Thanks.

        6. Inter Me Gran
          • 6 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          For 1 week only, Welbeck for a punt? Good decision or madness? (Can’t afford any more than £5.7)

          1. aleksios
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Madness.

        7. Totti
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          1 FT
          What do u rather guys?

          A) salah -> auba/odegard
          B) bednarek -> dunk/dallas
          C) taylor -> veltman
          D) calvert -> lacazette

          1. aleksios
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            B-Dunk.

            1. Totti
              • 4 Years
              4 months, 8 days ago

              Why not veltman?

              1. 2's Kompany 3's M…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                4 months, 8 days ago

                Dunk will score

        8. Finding Timo
            4 months, 8 days ago

            According to paddypower.. Aubameyang 1.625 to score anytime snd bale 1.875

          • MattSmitty
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            For the Free Hitters out there, is anyone else concerned about Auba bench incoming? Considering fading him