Three FPL differentials to consider for Gameweek 17 and beyond

Gameweek 17 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

EMILIANO BUENDIA

• FPL ownership: 1.0%
• Price: £6.2m
• GW17-21 fixtures: nor | BUR | CHE | lee | bre

Emiliano Buendia (£6.2m) is set to return to Carrow Road in Gameweek 17, and could be an effective midfield differential for the festive period, given Aston Villa’s schedule.

In Monday’s pre-match press conference, Steven Gerrard revealed that he will be without two first-team players due to positive Covid-19 tests, but did not reveal names due to medical confidentiality. However, in a training clip uploaded by Villa’s social media team earlier in the day, Buendia was spotted alongside Ollie Watkins (£7.6m), which does suggest he isn’t one of the players affected.

Now, having only played for the final 21 minutes of the 1-0 loss at Liverpool on Saturday, the Argentine playmaker should be raring to go, and the expectation is that he will be restored to the starting XI against former club Norwich City.

“He’s a fantastic talent. I’m really happy to work closely with him – I think our system suits him really well. He’s had a couple of knocks over the last three or four sessions, so we have tried to manage his load. The idea was always to have him fresh and ready for this game. He’s trained extremely well this morning. We believe he can keep growing and evolving as a player. I’m excited to keep working with him moving forward, and there’s a big role for Emi to play. When he’s at his best, everyone knows he’s very inventive, creative and he can score goals. I’m sure he’s looking forward to this fixture.” – Steven Gerrard on Emiliano Buendia

Under Gerrard, Buendia has started in games against Brighton and Hove Albion and Leicester City, helping his side to victories on both occasions. He was also named in the starting XI for the Gameweek 14 home tie against Manchester City, which ended in a narrow defeat. And while he is still yet to produce an attacking return for his new boss, he is clearly one of Villa’s key creative forces, and may be able to kick on now the fixtures are easing.

Villa’s performances under Gerrard do suggest they are building some momentum, and as Buendia settles into this new system, he could become a smart midfield differential for our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) squads.

MATT TARGETT

• FPL ownership: 2.0%
• Price: £4.7m
• GW17-21 fixtures: nor | BUR | CHE | lee | bre

Staying with Aston Villa, another differential worth considering is defender Matt Targett (£4.7m), who is averaging 4.5 points per game in his four starts under Steven Gerrard.

A product of the Southampton academy, he’s played a key role in a defence that has shown real signs of improvement in recent weeks, scoring his first goal of the season at Selhurst Park last month.

Since Gameweek 12, which coincided with Gerrard’s first game in charge, fellow full-back Matty Cash (£5.0m) trumps Targett in all of the key goal threat statistics. However, when it comes to creativity, Targett is ahead per 90 minutes for chances created (0.77/0.38) and successful crosses (1.03/0.19), plus final-third touches (13.07/12.93). His contribution at the back is telling, too, with 15 of his 20 attempted tackles won, plus four blocks, just one behind Tyrone Mings (£4.9m) and Ezri Konsa’s (£4.9m) totals.

Villa’s defensive form is also worth noting. Across their last five Premier League matches, which has included fixtures against Manchester City and Liverpool, they have conceded just five goals, and rank ninth for non-penalty expected goals conceded (non-pen xGC) during that time. That suggests they can offer value in the coming weeks, with appealing ties after Norwich against Burnley, Leeds United and Brentford.

Priced at £4.7m, Targett offers the cheapest route into Villa’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing run.

MARC GUEHI

• FPL ownership: 1.9%
• Price: £4.6m
• GW17-21 fixtures: SOU | wat | tot | NOR | WHU

Sunday’s 3-1 win over Everton returned Crystal Palace to winning ways at Selhurst Park, ahead of an appealing run of fixtures which sees them take on Southampton (h), Watford (a) and Norwich City (h) before the end of the year.

That promotes defender Marc Guehi (£4.6m), who has been an ever-present for Palace in the Premier League so far this season, as an interesting budget differential.

The former Chelsea man has already produced two goals from 10 shots this season. And in addition to that goal threat, his appeal is also boosted by his ability to rack up baseline bonus points (BBPS), largely thanks to his pass completion stats, with his total of 216 only bettered by Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.2m), Virgil van Dijk (£6.7m) and Joao Cancelo (£6.8m) amongst all defenders.

Palace’s defensive numbers also stand out. Across their opening 16 matches, only Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Brighton and Hove Albion have posted lower non-pen xGC totals, with just 17 big chances conceded over that period. However, they have continually been let down by their inability to defend set pieces, though they did show signs of improvement in that respect in Gameweek 16.

In a relatively short space of time, Guehi has proven he has the ability to thrive in the Premier League, and could be a useful budget option for our backlines.