The best FPL players for those without a Free Hit

With 12 teams having a Double Gameweek 29, four not participating in Blank Gameweek 32 and six confirmed to be playing twice in Double Gameweek 34, we’ve very much entered chip season in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

A large number of managers can navigate this schedule slightly better by activating their Free Hit chip at some point but 41.54% have already used theirs. In fact, it’s 45.57% of the current top 10k.

For them, here is a list of the best players that will help during these upcoming weeks.

BLANKS AND DOUBLES

Using our Season Ticker, it’s possible to pinpoint the teams that non-Free Hit managers should aim for.

* teams still have one more match that needs adding to the schedule

Liverpool and West Ham United will take part in eight matches between Gameweeks 29 and 34, with ten others having seven.

Of those only participating six times, there is still one future match to be added for Chelsea and Manchester City.

Mohammed Salah (£12.8m)

It’s felt like an underwhelming campaign for Salah so far, as his previous five have averaged 23.6 goals and he’s only on 11 so far.

Yet, thanks to the 7-0 demolition of Manchester United in Gameweek 26, the Egyptian has the joint-most FPL points (49) of each player’s last six matches.

Truth be told, although Liverpool have a great quantity of fixtures, the first three look difficult. Away trips to Man City and Chelsea when they’ve been notoriously bad on the road, followed by league leaders Arsenal.

A player with such a high FPL pedigree is probably fixture-proof, it’s just a matter of whether managers can and want to have a team structure that features such an expensive midfielder.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) / Andrew Robertson (£6.8m)

On the surface, things have improved of late for Salah’s defensive teammates: five clean sheets from their last six matches, conceding just once to Bournemouth.

However, their expected goals conceded (xGC) tally in this period was 5.69, suggesting that some unsustainable luck was involved and managers are right in avoiding the game’s three priciest defenders – Alexander-Arnold, Robertson and Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m).

But even in this sub-standard season, the full-back duo are still ranked second and third amongst defenders for chances created, big chances created and expected assists (xA).

Managers using a Free Hit in Gameweek 32 will likely stack up on Liverpool assets at home to Nottingham Forest, so getting in there early could be of benefit.

Jarrod Bowen (£8.0m)

Clearly, Bowen was never going to repeat his outstanding 2021/22 campaign, where he bagged 12 goals, 17 assists and 206 FPL points. So the subsequent big price rise, followed by seven blanks that began 2022/23, have pushed the West Ham attacker into the background ever since.

David Moyes’ Hammers enter Double Gameweek 29 in the relegation zone and need to quickly produce some victories but back-to-back home games with Southampton and Newcastle United provide a great opportunity to turn things around, with trips to Fulham, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace soon after.

In a squad with Europa Conference League commitments, Bowen has proved he is rotation-proof but his Gameweek 12 penalty miss at Anfield seems to have cost him this extra route to points.

Instead, Said Benrahma (£5.5m) has taken over spot-kick duties and the Algerian provides an interesting cheap differential option. He’s been a regular starter since Gameweek 13 and, in that time, his 15 shots on target rank fifth amongst all midfielders.

Ollie Watkins (£7.5m)

A lot of managers have already jumped on board the Watkins train, with over 860,000 buying him for Gameweek 28 after six goals arrived in the previous seven outings.

The underlying stats look good too, leading the way for big chances (7) and shots on target (10) over the last four matches.

Aston Villa are one of nine teams to play twice in Gameweek 29 and avoid a Blank Gameweek 32, so it’s an intriguing bonus that home meetings with Nottingham Forest and Fulham are also on the horizon.

Kieran Trippier (£6.1m)

The superb 2022/23 of Trippier will already see him be ‘fixture-proof’ for most FPL owners. His 154 points are well ahead of second-placed Gabriel‘s (£5.2m) 124, leading the way in almost all defender creativity data. For example, he’s the only one better than Alexander-Arnold and Robertson in those earlier stats.

Newcastle are without a clean sheet in six matches but remain the league’s most resolute defence. Two late victories over Wolverhampton Wanderers and Nottingham Forest brought huge relief and this sea of blue fixtures could continue such momentum as they seek Champions League qualification.

Such is Trippier’s ownership, managers may feel a second Newcastle defender is needed in order to gain anything from successful shut-outs. Sven Botman (£4.5m) and Fabian Schar (£5.0m) are worth consideration, although the former is currently flagged, which will need monitoring as we approach Saturday’s deadline.

Alexander Isak (£6.7m)

Further upfield, returns have been even scarcer. Their seven goals since Gameweek 18 is the joint-lowest throughout the league but it’s not for a lack of trying, with an expected goals (xG) tally of 15.92.

Once this underachievement ends, Isak will be there to benefit as the leading centre forward. These two important wins brought three goals for the Swede, arguably establishing him as the first-choice ahead of Callum Wilson (£6.9m).

This talisman has been directly involved in 86% of Newcastle’s goals when on the pitch and is currently the international break’s second most-bought player.

James Maddison (£8.2m)

As well as for Double Gameweek 29, our Season Ticker says that the best fixture of Gameweek 30 belongs to Leicester City.

That’s partly why 36% of the top 100k already own Maddison, despite the Foxes being precariously positioned one point off the bottom three. It’s a great run of games for those without a Free Hit and only six midfielders have had more goal attempts than Maddison over the season.

However, as an above-average proportion of these are from outside the area, only three of his 58 have been deemed ‘big’ and 15 goal involvements vastly exceed his xGI of 8.47.

Others to consider

Brentford’s Ivan Toney (£7.9m) also has seven matches over six Gameweeks but is close to a suspension in two different ways. Get booked again and it’s a two-match ban, whilst an FA hearing will determine his punishment for betting offences.

Meanwhile, Leeds are delighted to welcome Rodrigo (£6.3m) back into proceedings. He was this season’s first midfielder to reach ten goals but has missed time because of an ankle injury. Upcoming fixtures are a mixed bag but he’s already netted against Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs.

Speaking of which, it’ll be intriguing to see how Tottenham’s results fare without Antonio Conte in the dugout. Harry Kane (£11.8m) tends to score against Everton and is without any doubles or blanks, just like north London rivals Arsenal.

They proved during Double Gameweek 27 that some one-match players will still excel and outperform the doublers, so in-form Bukayo Saka (£8.6m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m) and Martin Odegaard (£6.9m). shouldn’t be written off. Gameweek 32 pits them against Southampton, so non-Free Hitters will need at least a couple of Arsenal names.