FPL promoted sides: Burnley’s full-backs could offer value

Burnley’s full-backs – and maybe their goalkeeper too – have the potential to offer appeal in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) next season, if handed budget-friendly price tags.

They’re the headline acts in this look at the Clarets’ defenders, which forms part of our Promoted series of articles on the sides coming up from the Championship.

A profile of manager Vincent Kompany preceded this piece, with an appraisal of the Burnley attackers to follow.

To provide a fan’s view, we’ve got insight from ‘statistorian’ Dave Roberts and keen FPL player Adam Dennett – who has three top 10k finishes in the last seven seasons – from the highly recommended No Nay Never podcast.

• READ MORE: FPL pre-season 2023/24 guide: Pre-season friendly dates, transfers + more
• READ MORE: The Promoted series: Insight into all three sides coming up from the Championship

The stats in this piece are taken from WhoScored, Fotmob and FBref.

WHAT IS BURNLEY’S CLEAN SHEET POTENTIAL?

Burnley came top of the pile for Championship clean sheets last season, excluding the play-offs.

But the shut-outs didn’t exactly arrive at a steady rate in the Clarets’ promotion-winning campaign: only five were recorded in the first 20 games of the season.

The 5-2 hammering at Sheffield United, the penultimate game before the World Cup break, proved to be a turning point for Kompany’s troops.

The eventual champions went on to record 16 clean sheets in their final 26 fixtures, conceding on just 12 occasions.

That month-long hiatus when Qatar 2022 played out proved to be pivotal, with nine straight wins and a 21-game unbeaten run ensuing when domestic football returned.

“The brief break was used to “breath, think and review”. Kompany sat down with his coaching staff and dug into the details of the first half of the season, identifying what had gone well and what improvement was needed. Burnley’s press was still not at its full, flowing best and an emphasis was placed on building up clean sheets.” – Andy Jones, The Athletic

The post-World Cup form helped Burnley finish top of most of the metrics listed below:

The acid test, of course, comes next season.

As pointed out below and in the manager profile, attack was the most effective form of defence in 2022/23 with the Clarets top of the pile for possession.

Where fellow promoted side Sheffield United were ranked first for tackles won, Burnley were down in joint-16th. No second-tier team made fewer clearances than Kompany’s outfit, either.

Simply put: if you’ve got domination of the ball, there’s less of the backs-to-the-wall graft to be done at the other end of the pitch. That’s something Burnley will almost certainly have to do more of in the Premier League, especially against the ‘bigger’ sides.

“A good defence is obviously key to any side being successful in the Premier League, and Burnley come into the league with the best defensive record in the Championship, conceding just 35 goals in 46 games and wracking up 21 clean sheets.

“However, I’d say much of Burnley’s solidity is down to how much control they have on the game, in the Championship we averaged not far off 70% possession and didn’t give opposing teams chance to get into our box to hurt us. It will be interesting to see if we can still control games in the same way in the Premier League, but you’d imagine that it will be difficult.” – Adam Dennett

One area of weakness was defending set plays, a vulnerability exposed ruthlessly by Sheffield United in that aforementioned thrashing back in November. Four of the five goals scored by the Blades came from dead-ball situations.

Even after the tightening up after the World Cup, goals were conceded to West Bromwich Albion, Millwall, Rotherham United (twice) and Queens Park Rangers (twice) from set plays or the attacks that immediately followed them.

“We conceded quite a large proportion of goals from crosses into our box and set pieces, but you could see a marked improvement on this as the season progressed.” – Adam Dennett

THE PLAYERS

APPS, GOALS AND ASSISTS

ARI MURIC

With Kompany favouring a possession-based approach, it was no surprise to see him raid former club Manchester City last summer for a goalkeeper who has been trained since his teens in Ederson-style ball retention.

Ari Muric made way more successful short passes (879) than any other Championship ‘keeper in 2022/23, while his long-range-pass completion rate of 49% was also better than any regular starter between the sticks.

Passing is one of the ways that goalkeepers can boost their Bonus Points System score, another being ‘recoveries’. Muric also ticks this box, having being ranked second for percentage crosses stopped (10.9%) in the English second tier.

And then there are good old-fashioned saves: his save percentage of 76.6% wasn’t beaten by any Championship goalkeeper.

“The best side to his game is actually his goalkeeping, it’s phenomenal and the rest, I think he just has to improve like all the other players and I do want to mention because it’s important, goalkeepers are always special breeds. For me, it’s important to me to mention that we couldn’t be happier with the two goalkeepers we’ve got and both of them have progressed a lot during the course of the season.” – Vincent Kompany on Ari Muric

And yet, despite all that, there are still some reservations about Muric.

A bit like Ederson, and contradicting the shots/crosses numbers above, there is a suggestion that the 24-year-old custodian is better with his feet. Then there are the occasional errors, the most high profile of which came against Watford.

Kompany’s quote below was an acknowledgement that mistakes can and will happen when he encourages his goalkeeper to play out from the back but it’s worth paying attention to the transfer market this summer, with Bart Verbruggen linked with a move to the north-west.

“In terms of the mistake, I’m a relatively logical person so I factor in at the very beginning of the season that mistakes will happen and then we just make sure they are not too frequent but for the rest, you know that you will have these in the season.” – Vincent Kompany on Ari Muric

If Muric does see off a challenger, then there is some hope that he can, like David Raya, combine clean sheets with save and bonus points. Even Raya, now much revered and sought-after, came up from the Championship with a reputation for making an error or two.

IAN MAATSEN + CONNOR ROBERTS

You’ll have no doubt clocked the attacking returns column in the table further up this article, with full-backs Ian Maatsen and Connor Roberts both hitting double figures for goals and assists combined in 2022/23.

Maatsen was only on loan from Chelsea last season but the Clarets seem keen on making his move permanent, having had one £15m bid for the left-back knocked back already.

“With goals and assists spread all over the pitch, and a lot of rotation in the attacking areas, I think the Burnley full-backs could be the best early picks next season. Hopefully, being a newly promoted side will mean a defence full of £4.5m options.

“Ian Maatsen and Connor Roberts both had over 10 goal contributions in the league last season. Burnley are pushing to make Maatsen’s loan permanent but I’d trust Vincent Kompany to bring in a player in the similar mould if we can’t get that one over the line. Roberts was sluggish before the World Cup last season but he was one of the stand-out performers from January onwards and made the right-back slot his own, so I’d expect that to carry on into next season.” – Adam Dennett

As discussed in our last article, Kompany has joined two of the coaches he once played under, Guardiola and Mikel Arteta, on the ‘inverted full-back’ bandwagon.

Earlier in the campaign, it was all about left-back Maatsen getting forward: eight of his 10 attacking returns had arrived by January 2. But gradually, there was more of a balance offered from each full-back. Roberts had effectively been a third centre-half when Maatsen advanced but his own role was tweaked following the post-World Cup resumption, with seven of his 10 contributions arriving after this point. Sometimes he would ‘invert’ into midfield and Maatsen would stay back, sometimes the opposite would happen. On occasion, both players advanced into the engine room with midfield anchor Josh Cullen dropping deeper.

“Full-backs are an essential cog in the system used by Kompany and are crucial to Burnley’s ball progression.

“Maatsen’s role changed throughout the 2022-23 season. Early on, he was asked to push extremely high on the left; later in the season, he dropped deeper into the in-possession back three that Burnley used when they switched to their inverted full-back style.” – Andy Jones and Liam Twomey, The Athletic

As the season progressed, Maatsen’s goal threat remained fairly constant but his chance creation fell off a cliff.

It was the opposite for Roberts: over half of his shots in 2022/23 arrived in his last 13 appearances. His goals against Huddersfield Town and Middlesbrough during this period both came from inside the six-yard box.

Few FPL managers will be interested in anything over £4.5m and we’re not expecting the second coming of 2018/19-era Matt Doherty but if the prices and the fixtures are right, then Roberts and Maatsen (or whoever is signed at left-back) could be ones for the watchlist given their attacking credentials in Kompany’s system and Burnley’s clean-sheet record.

JORDAN BEYER

Jordan Beyer was a loanee in 2022/23 but Burnley have now signed the centre-half from Borussia Monchengladbach on a permanent basis.

The German stopper has impressed for the Championship winners, establishing himself in his manager’s line-up in early October and becoming a nailed starter since then.

Extremely comfortable on the ball and fond of marauding forward, there’s potential for the very occasional open-play assist a la Joachim Andersen at Crystal Palace.

Goalscoring Burnley centre-backs like Ben Mee and James Tarkowski have been Fantasy targets in the past but it’s hard to see ‘Beckenbeyer’ joining those ranks: the 23-year-old defender’s one and only career goal came against Coventry City in January.

A minutes-per-chance average of 194.8 was on the poor side even for a centre-half, the Clarets no longer the set-piece masters they were under Sean Dyche.

HJALMAR EKDAL/TAYLOR HARWOOD-BELLIS/AMEEN AL-DAKHIL

While Beyer has, when fit, remained a mainstay in defence, he has been through a succession of centre-back partners.

Loanee Taylor Harwood-Bellis was secure alongside Beyer until a foot injury sustained in January sidelined him for the best part of three months, while winter window recruit Hjalmar Ekdal was immediately thrown into the starting XI only to have his own campaign curtailed after picking up an issue while away with Sweden in March.

Another January signing, Ameen Al Dakhil, was belatedly handed an opportunity to impress in the run-in, five of his seven starts coming after promotion had been sealed.

With Harwood-Bellis now back at City and a fresh move for the England under-21 international in doubt, our correspondent Adam expects Ekdal to line up alongside Beyer come Gameweek 1.

“The most likely defensive trio at the start of the season will be Aro Muric, Jordan Beyer and Hjalmar Ekdal, all very impressive in their first campaign and have international pedigree. The hope is that they can step up and still have the quality to play out from the back at it is a vital part of the way Burnley play. They also showed that they were up for the fight as we came out on top in a number of tight games last season.” – Adam Dennett

Ekdal found the net on his debut against Norwich City but that was his only shot in nine appearances for the Clarets to date, the Sweden international unable to replicate the threat that saw him scored score seven goals in 50 appearances for Djurgården and average more than one shot per match.

If we’re clutching at straws for further positives, all four Burnley centre-halves ranked in the top seven Championship players for passes per match – something that helps on the Bonus Points System in FPL and is rewarded even more in the Sky Fantasy game. But even then, with the step up in class next season, those passing numbers will likely drop significantly.

CHAMPIONSHIP 2022/23: MOST PASSES PER GAME

In truth, should the goalkeeper and/or full-backs get priced up at £4.5m, there seems little sense in considering the centre-halves if we’re looking for a route into the Burnley backline.

OTHER OPTIONS

Charlie Taylor is the last of the old defensive gang still on the books at Burnley but he’s way down the pecking order and his future is uncertain, with a year left on his contract.

Taylor was actually used at centre-half in the opening weeks of the 2022/23 campaign but the arrivals of Beyer, Al-Dakhil and Ekdal have pushed him out of contention, only three starts arriving after the January transfer window. Even in his usual position, at left-back, he was largely unfancied.

Utility player Vitinho was instead often the man filling in for Maatsen at left-back, as well as covering for Roberts on the opposite flank. Burnley’s Mr Versatile also had stints further up each wing whenever Nathan Tella or Anass Zaroury were sidelined, although three of his four attacking returns arrived when he was operating as a full-back. He’s not a first choice in any position but his flexibility is nevertheless valued by Kompany.

Two of the Burnley manager’s first signings after his June 2022 appointment, centre-halves CJ Egan-Riley and Luke McNally, didn’t get a single Championship start between them and were packed off on loan to Hibernian and Coventry City respectively in January. Both stoppers impressed at their temporary clubs but it looks to be a long way back to first-team contention at Burnley.

Bailey Peacock-Farrell won’t be holding his breath for Premier League game-time, either, with number two status the best he can hope for; doubts exist whether he’ll even be that, with Kompany thought to be sniffing around goalkeeping reinforcements.

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