FPL Q&A: Arsenal triple-up, Chelsea, Watkins + Darwin

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Next up, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes his first Q&A of 2023/24.

Q: Are we sleeping a bit on Ollie Watkins as an alternative to Gabriel Jesus? It allows a Bukayo Saka/Gabriel Martinelli double-up for Arsenal, alongside Gabriel Magalhaes. Watkins, at home to Everton, is also a potentially good captain for Gameweek 2 and it’s easy to move to a Chelsea forward in Gameweek 3.

(via @yala_leopard)

A: The word ‘coverage’ is one I am going to use a few times in this piece, and I think as FPL managers we need to beware of getting players purely for coverage sake (as in, to get X number of attackers from Y team who we believe to have good fixtures and FPL point-scoring potential).

Arsenal to me are like the Liverpool of past years, where we almost have to get three assets because of their point-scoring potential/pedigree across positions and secure minutes.

So, I think you need to ask yourself what the three best Arsenal options are and get them first. In my opinion, Bukayo Saka (£8.5m) is head and shoulders above the rest because of penalties and minutes security. The fact that he is just £8.5m is baffling to me and is one of the ‘no-brainer’ picks in my squad currently. I also think Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.0m) is underpriced and with the weakness of Arsenal’s first seven opponents at set pieces, the defender with the highest expected goals (xG) tally of the past few years is worth including. 

So that really brings it down to Gabriel Martinelli (£8.0m) v Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) for the second attacker spot – and I do think the latter is superior because of minutes and his general involvement in Arsenal’s attack. Yes, Martinelli is far more lethal when Jesus is playing and drifts into central positions, but there is always the looming threat of Leandro Trossard (£7.0m). The Belgian has had a strong pre-season and is a form player; when he is on song, Mikel Arteta will want to play him. A couple of so-so games from Martinelli and a goal from Trossard off the bench will have you concerned. 

Watkins is a perfectly good option and Villa’s difficult run of fixtures means that they are likely to play a counter-attacking game, which should suit Watkins’ traits. So, I have nothing against Watkins as a pick, but I do think Jesus is superior. 

Q: What’s more important to start the season with: a decent first substitute good enough to be used for rotation if needed (e.g. a £4.5m defender) or £0.5m in the bank?

(via @Luke7_FPL)

A: This is a question I have been asking myself as well, not with a view to using the £4.5m fourth defender for rotation but just to have him in case of emergencies where the starting three defenders miss out/get injured. Going with two £4.0m defenders does feel a bit thin but from what I have seen in pre-season, we do have some options like Jordan Beyer (£4.0m) and Amari’i Bell (£4.0m) who could get game-time – so I think it is doable. Many of us are likely going to wildcard by Gameweeks 6-8 anyway and rotation should be minimal amongst the big teams for that initial period. 

I think I’d rather have the £0.5m in the bank to jump on the latest bandwagon after Gameweek 1 or even invest it in my Gameweek 1 starting XI if I see an upgrade possible somewhere. 

Q: Are Chelsea a ‘wait-and-see’ or should we try and get ahead of the curve?

(via @FPL_Aubergine)

A: Chelsea are a squad still in transition. They have sold a large chunk of their squad but the replacements are yet to be signed and will likely need time to be bedded in. The midfield in particular is thin and while I do think the Blues will sign Moises Caicedo (£5.0m), it’s a saga that might drag on till the end of the transfer window. Chelsea will no doubt be better than last season but the first two fixtures are not easy, Liverpool are a difficult opponent and West Ham United always raise their game against Chelsea on home turf. 

It is a gamble to start with Chelsea assets but with the template so strong, with 7-8 players common across most teams, they might be a gamble worth taking. It depends on your risk appetite and your FPL style of play. There are three options that I’d be considering: Ben Chilwell (£5.5m), Levi Colwill (£4.5m) and Christopher Nkunku (£7.5m). 

Chilwell has had a strong pre-season and from what we have seen, Mauricio Pochettino’s full-backs have been a bit lopsided with the left-back getting more license to get forward than the right-back. Granted, this could have been due to Reece James’ (£5.5m) limited minutes but Chilwell has in general looked very sharp and very attacking. Clean sheets might be slim early doors but he does have both goal and assist threat to match or better most FPL defenders bar Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.0m). I don’t think Marc Cucurella (£5.0m) is a minutes threat to him as the Spaniard is just not as good going forward. 

Colwill is the subject of transfer interest from Brighton, who are trying to make him part of the Caicedo deal, but as of now, it does look like the youngster will find a place in the Blues’ starting backline with the departure of Kalidou Koulibaly and the injury to Wesley Fofana (£4.5m). I like him as a fourth defender option over, say, Sven Botman (£4.5m) or Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m) but not as a start every week, just yet. 

Nkunku’s versatility means that he is likely to find himself on Pochettino’s teamsheet regularly. As of now, this looks like being in a no.10 position or up top. Despite Chelsea’s goalscoring difficulties last season, I am more confident about their ability to find the back of the net rather than keep the opposition out in the first few Gameweeks. I also have more faith in him than Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m) to get consistent minutes. The latter has looked very impressive though when on the pitch though and is one to monitor for sure. 

Q: Chelsea have a great run from Gameweek 3 onwards. How many Chelsea players should we start Gameweek 1 with to ensure we can get at least two by the time they are at home to Luton Town?

And who should we sell from Arsenal/Manchester United to buy a Chelsea attacker, given that they too have favourable fixtures in Gameweek 3? (@Pointless4Casts)

A: I think starting with one of Chilwell or Nkunku is reasonable, then you can assess how the Blues look and where the other investible assets are. The two above are secure for minutes and are likely going to be assets you may want around Gameweek 3 anyway. 

Regarding the second part of your question, it is too early to answer that with any certainty. There is going to be a lot of football to consume over the first two Gameweeks: we might end up deciding that one/no Chelsea player is what we want or Arsenal/Manchester United might start poorly. So that bridge can be crossed when we come to it. 

Q: Start with both Darwin Nunez and Nicolas Jackson, ignoring Jesus’s ownership figure, and have Gabriel Martinelli instead to complete the triple-up on Arsenal? (@FPL_Atoms)

A: I discussed my thoughts on Martinelli and the ‘coverage’ dilemma earlier in the article, so there’s no point delving into that again. I don’t think we can put Darwin Nunez (£7.5m) and Jackson in the same bracket, though: the former has had a full season in the Premier League and we have often seen new signings take a year to get used to Jurgen Klopp’s system and the pace of the Premier League. The Uruguayan has had a strong pre-season so far and I think he is a decent, explosive differential to start the season with. It is a gamble, but one with reason. 

The same cannot be said for Jackson, in my opinion. There is very little we know of him from pre-season and even La Liga. He is much more of a gamble in a team that will likely take some time to find its feet and as of now, I can’t suggest him as an option. Sure, it could work, but I would rather start with Nkunku and downgrade if Jackson appears the better option.