Shouting the odds: The bookies’ Free Hit team

A very clear template has formed for the Blank Gameweek 29 Free Hit team, but what do the bookmakers’ odds suggest are the best choices?

The odds I will use are for:

• Team victory
• Clean sheet
• Any time goal scorer
• Team to score three or more goals

I will show all odds as a percentage chance, as regular clean sheet poster G-Whizz does. There are a few things to bear in mind when considering these odds.

Firstly, the real probabilities are lower. Bookmakers make a profit by underpaying when you are correct. When you are wrong, it doesn’t matter what the odds were.

Secondly, bookmakers odds don’t always reflect injuries, predicted line-ups or form. Bookies cover themselves by offering short (ungenerous) odds on fringe players, in case punters get wind of a shock start.

Odds do change though, either due to reassessment or a market response to incoming bets. For example, after Luton Town’s Wednesday evening shocker, their team and player odds drifted (became more generous) overnight, whilst Nottingham Forest’s odds shortened.

Some obvious picks form the core of a Free Hit team. For these, the any time goal scorer odds confirm their inclusion. These are: Son Heung-min (£9.9m, 45% chance of scoring), Jarrod Bowen (£8.0m, 43%), Ollie Watkins (£9.0m, 42%) and Ivan Toney (£8.1m, 47%).

Third Striker Slot

Carlton Morris (£5.2m, 36%) is the template third striker pick but four strikers have shorter any time goal scorer odds. Chris Wood (£4.8m, 48%) and Taiwo Awoniyi (£6.3m, 43%) face an obliging Luton Town defence that played in midweek. Of these, I prefer Chris Wood, having returned from injury and with 90 minutes against Brighton. Awoniyi has recently been a substitute.  

If you are uncertain of Chris Wood’s start, David Datro Fofona (£5.0m, 42%) and Rodrigo Muniz (£4.5m, 42%) are nailed on and have three and five goals in the last six games respectively. However, their team’s victory odds and haul potential (represented by the odds of the team scoring three or more goals) are at the bottom of the following table.

Notice that the order of the two sets of odds doesn’t match exactly: the odds suggest Burnley v Brentford to be a low scoring affair and that feels right. I’ll have Chris Wood as my third striker in a 3-4-3 if he sounds likely to start and Rodrigo Muniz if not.

“Free Hit” Midfielders

Moving on to the midfield, James Maddison (£8.0m, 25%) is beaten by a number of players on goal scoring odds. However, he also sits fourth in this list of any time assist odds. The goal scorer odds from this source don’t agree with my source (a live, constantly updated betting site, which I consider more reliable). That is, however, the only source of assists odds to my knowledge. With those assist odds and Tottenham having the best chance of scoring three or more goals (31%), Maddison still makes my line up.

Players beating Maddison for goal scoring odds are: Alex Iwobi (£5.3m), Mohammed Kudus (£6.8m), Leon Bailey (£5.7m), Anthony Elanga (£5.1m) and Callum Hudson-Odoi (all 29%), Brennan Johnson (£5.8m) and Wilson Odobert (£5.0m) (both 26%). Of these, only Iwobi and Odobert have no issues over either Thursday night’s European minutes or regular selection. Both are Fantasy differentials, with Odobert being out of position.

Morgan Gibbs-White (£5.7m) (23%) has regular starts, good minutes and, interestingly, sits top of the assist odds table at 25%. At 23%, his goal scorer odds are not much lower than those listed above. I feel like the Luton defence should be targeted, so Gibbs-White will be my fourth midfielder, hopefully with Wood as a double up.

“Free Hit” Defenders

Moving onto the defence, YouTube this week has been full of expectations of no clean sheets. Adding the clean sheet percentage odds to form an ‘expected’ total gives 1.96, so expect two clean sheets. There is only a 10.5% probability of no clean sheets according to the odds. This will be slightly higher in reality after adjusting for bookmaker’s profit margin, but still low.

Individually though, no team stands out as having a good chance of a clean sheet. Brentford top the list at 31%, followed by Tottenham and Nottingham Forest (27%). These might differ slightly from G-Whizz’s list, depending on his source.

Turning to attacking threat, from the eight teams playing, Alfie Doughty (£4.7m) and Pedro Porro (£5.8m) have been the assist kings this season. Doughty features joint-fourth with Maddison in the assist odds list at 23%, with Porro the next best defender at 14%. Porro also does reasonably on goal scoring and clean sheet odds. Cristian Romero (£5.0m) is an alternative to Porro, with the shortest goal scoring odds of all defenders but I will go with Porro.

There is no clear bookies’ favourite as the third starting defender. The Aston Villa and Brentford full-backs have a reasonable case, as do Nottingham Forest’s full-backs Harry Toffolo (£4.4m) and Neco Williams (£4.3m) if you really want to target Luton Town’s defence.

In goal, the default pick is Mark Flekken (£4.5m) with the shortest clean sheet odds. The Brentford defensive double up does at least back an outcome rather than completely hedge your bets.

The Bookies “Free Hit” Team

My team (3-4-3):

Mark Flekken
Alfie Doughty, Pedro Porro, Sergio Reguilon
Son Heung-min (C), Jarrod Bowen, James Maddison, Morgan Gibbs-White
Ollie Watkins* (VC), Ivan Toney, Chris Wood

Subs: Alex Iwobi, Matty Cash, Neco Williams, Emiliano Martinez

*In the event that Ollie Watkins is ruled out due to injury, I would replace him with Rodrigo Muniz.

In summary, the odds suggest going with a fairly template Free Hit team with the twist of adding some Nottingham Forest attackers to target Luton Town’s defence.