Still got the Triple Captain? Here’s when you could use it…

There’s been plenty of talk about the Wildcard, Free Hit and Bench Boost in recent weeks.

But for some Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, the Triple Captain is still burning a hole in their pockets.

Here, we look at the possible options for anyone with the chip intact.

Even if you have already used the Triple Captain, this article at least provides early week-by-week discussion on the armband.

TRIPLE CAPTAIN: THE APPROACHES

The Triple Captain can, essentially, be used in one of two ways.

First, ‘optimally’. You simply stick the armband on whichever player is statistically likeliest to score the most points in a given Gameweek, regardless of ownership.

In (the remainder of) this season’s case, it’s maybe Mohamed Salah (£13.4m) in Double Gameweek 34 or Erling Haaland (£14.3m) in Double Gameweek 37.

Let’s assume Salah scores 20 points in Gameweek 34. Let’s also assume that 99 of the 100 managers in your mini-league back the Egyptian with the armband. If you’re the only person using the Triple Captain on Salah, you gain 20 points on everyone else (they get 40, you get 60). It doesn’t matter that he’s 100% owned, you’re up on the deal.

The second way of using the Triple Captain is to amplify the potential impact of a ‘Hail Mary’ punt.

You might be languishing in the lower reaches of your mini-league or unsatisfied with your rank. Those hypothetical 20 extra points from Salah might not make much of a dent.

Instead, you may throw caution to the wind with a differential Triple Captain, hoping to catch a chance haul like John Stones (£5.3m) delivered a few seasons back.

It’s ultimately suboptimal play. You’re backing against the player statistically likeliest to bag the highest score. You’re also relying on a Fantasy asset, who is less fancied to haul, going big.

But, there’s no denying its power if you do manage to nail that do-or-die gamble.

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 34

THE OBVIOUS

• Mohamed Salah (ful, eve): 82.6% owned in the top 100k
• Bukayo Saka (wol, CHE): 79.8% owned in the top 100k

THE DIFFERENTIALS

• Luis Diaz (ful, eve): 9.8%% owned in the top 100k
• Kai Havertz (wol, CHE): 3.3%% owned in the top 100k
• Eberechi Eze/Michael Olise (WHU, NEW): 1.5%/0.03% owned in the top 100k

The masses will flock to Bukayo Saka (£8.9m) and Salah in Gameweek 34, and with good cause. These are the top two midfielders for expected goal involvement (xGI) over the season, even without penalties. And, of course, they do take penalties on top of that.

They’ve typically been the most secure starters in their sides’ attack, too. However, both have had injuries to contend with in recent weeks/months.

Kai Havertz (£7.3m) and Luis Diaz (£7.6m), indeed have, outlasted their teammates in terms of game time since the March international break.

They’ve also produced very similar recent underlying numbers to their more vaunted colleagues.

Above: Midfielders sorted by shots in the box over their last six matches

An out-of-position Havertz has had three times as many big chances as Saka over the last six matches, for instance. Diaz is almost identical to Salah for attempts and shots in the box, too, although the huge disclaimer with that is the Egyptian’s heavily impacted minutes.

The risk with most players on the books at Liverpool and Arsenal is a benching in one of the Double Gameweek fixtures. The return to fitness of some key Liverpool players heightens the risk there.

Perhaps we can make a better gauge of expected Gameweek 34 minutes after the European ties next midweek. A rest for Diaz against Atalanta, for instance, would boost his chances of successive league starts.

For the full-blown maverick, there’s Michael Olise (£5.6m). He’s the leading active midfielder for points per start (8.7) in 2023/24. He also ranks highly for xGI, too.

Above: Midfielders sorted by minutes per xGI this season (minimum: 500 minutes)

Starts might be the issue with Olise, as he’s only just back from injury. Would Oliver Glasner risk him twice in little more than 72 hours? Eberechi Eze (£6.0m), himself no stranger to a muscle issue or three, is maybe the safer play, then, having managed to avoid a reoccurrence since his Gameweek 27 comeback.

Both of Crystal Palace’s Gameweek 34 opponents are ranked in the bottom six for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season.

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 35

THE OBVIOUS

• Cole Palmer (avl, TOT): 98.9% owned in the top 100k
• Son Heung-min (ARS, che): 67.4% owned in the top 100k

There are only two teams doubling in Gameweek 35, neither of which has particularly attractive fixtures:

Even for nonconformists, there is such a paucity of options beyond the two names above.

Two of the usual alternatives, James Maddison (£7.9m) and Richarlison (£6.8m), are out of form and dealing with a niggling knee injury respectively. They only have one more match to change our minds, as there is a blank for the Lilywhites in Gameweek 34.

Given Spurs and Chelsea’s struggle for clean sheets (a combined four in 43 league matches), we can surely rule out the likes of Malo Gusto (£4.3m) and Pedro Porro (£5.9m) for armband duties, too.

So, back to Cole Palmer (£6.1m) and Son Heung-min (£10.1m). Like Salah and Saka, they’re penalty-taking talismans who have been typically reliable for minutes. And like the other two midfielders, they’re frequently to be found towards the summit of many underlying data tables – such as the two in the previous section.

Palmer has averaged an amazing eight points per start this season. His only two blanks this calendar year, indeed, have been at Manchester City and Liverpool.

You’d think Palmer has the edge over Son, given that the Korean faces the league’s best defence in Arsenal. But who did Son last score a league brace against? Only the rivals from across north London back in Gameweek 6.

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 37

THE OBVIOUS

• Erling Haaland (ful, tot): 89.1% owned in the top 100k
• Phil Foden (ful, tot): 56.1% owned in the top 100k
• Cole Palmer (nfo, bha): 98.9% owned in the top 100k
• Son Heung-min (BUR, MCI): 67.4% owned in the top 100k

THE DIFFERENTIALS

• Kevin De Bruyne (ful, tot): 0.9% owned in the top 100k
• Anthony Gordon (BHA, mun): 15.9% owned in the top 100k
• Alexander Isak (BHA, mun): 25.1% owned in the top 100k

Gameweek 37 is the trickiest double to assess as we’re still a month away.

What will be left to play for by that point? The title race looks like it will go down to the wire, but then it did last season. Arsenal’s successive defeats meant that Manchester City defended their crown without kicking a ball in Double Gameweek 37.

Pep then ran wild with the rotation, with Ederson (£5.5m) not featuring at all, Kevin De Bruyne (£10.3m) failing to reach the 60-minute mark in either fixture and Haaland warming the bench in one match.

Enough scaremongering for now. If City are still tussling for the title at the stage, then there’ll be ample interest in Haaland. The Norwegian delivered three goals, three assists and 27 points against his Gameweek 37 opponents in the reverse fixtures. Phil Foden (£8.3m) returned in both matches, too.

Much like in Gameweek 33, De Bruyne could be the most sensible differential out there. His name appears on the xGI table above, even if expected assists count for much of that.

Guardiola has been careful with De Bruyne’s minutes since his return from injury. But if there’s no Champions League involvement in the midweek before Gameweek 37, the Belgian’s pedigree marks him out as alternative armband material. One to revisit in mid-May.

Son and Palmer are listed again but if we’re assuming minutes and motivation are healthy, the City boys will take some arguing against.

THE ‘SINGLE’ GAMEWEEKS

Given that three Double Gameweeks are remaining, there won’t be many managers looking at a single Gameweek for their Triple Captain.

On the off-chance there are, we’ve sorted the three remaining single Gameweeks by fixture difficulty above. De Bruyne v Luton in Gameweek 33? Son v Sheffield United in a historically high-scoring Gameweek 38?

The choice is yours.