In the latest article from our team of Hall of Famers and guest contributors, FPL Family’s Sam Bonfield looks ahead to Gameweek 38.
Gameweek 38: for me, this is the second-best Gameweek of the season.
Gameweek 1 is my favourite. It brings so much optimism for the year ahead. So many big decisions and huge risk/reward potential. Of course, the difference is if it all goes horribly wrong then that Wildcard chip is there waiting to make everything better.
Gameweek 38 brings almost the same levels of excitement. But this time, rather than marking the start of an exciting new campaign, it brings to a close nine months of planning, over-thinking, joy and frustration.
This is my 13th Gameweek 38. Some final days have been stressful as I have looked to secure an overall rank or mini-league position when leading them. Others have been just as fraught as I have been chasing. This year, Gameweek 38 just feels like fun.
I had the best start to the season I have ever had this time around. I was sitting at 15k after Gameweek 1, and still at 54k by Gameweek 14. However, between Gameweeks 18 and 23, six back-to-back red arrows were season-ruining. Since then I have yo-yo’d between 315k and 170k. Heading into Gameweek 38 this season therefore doesn’t hold any stress. I’m not happy with my rank so we can have some fun and try and end this season with a positive green.
Ambitions
Every season I aim to finish in the top 10k. Every season, that gets harder. There are more active managers playing the game right through to the end of the campaign, as shown by Gameweek 37 being the week that had the most chips played ever.
I have had to constantly readjust my ambitions, especially in the weeks when the red arrows flowed. For most of the season, I have had a top 100k finish as my ambition. This doesn’t look it will be doable – but let’s see how the final fixtures of Gameweek 37 play out.
For Gameweek 37, I went bold to try to move my rank from 226k to somewhere around 150k. I hoped the braveness of those decisions might give me a shot at a five-digit finish if they paid off in Gameweek 37. I captained Alexander Isak (£8.4m) over Erling Haaland (£14.2m), brought in Kieran Trippier (£6.6m), and took a -4 for Marc Cucurella (£4.9m).
This has been reflective of my gameplay for the last few weeks. Not captaining Haaland last week hurt. It looks like it will in Gameweek 37 barring a mega Isak haul on Wednesday, but bravery is needed if you are chasing in the final weeks.
Gameweek 38
My bus team for Gameweek 38 gives me multiple headaches. This is one of the main disadvantages of playing a Bench Boost so late; the 15-man squad looks great and I want to play them all!
However, Gameweek 38 is prone to rotation. Teams ‘on the beach’ or managers trying out formations or players ahead of the 2024/25 campaign.
Then, of course, there is the battle for the title and European football which can make matches cagey affairs.
Having made some differential decisions in recent weeks to try to improve my rank, I will likely continue with that journey in Gameweek 38. However, for me, that might just come in the form of a differential captain.
Erling Haaland
With Manchester City trying to secure the Premier League title on the final day, Haaland will likely be the most captained.
The Norwegian is leading the race for the Golden Boot and will want to ensure that he wins that, alongside the title, for the second consecutive season.
If you are winning in your mini-leagues and are happy with your overall rank, then captaining Haaland is the sensible play.
However, in my case, handing Haaland the armband will simply maintain my rank. Therefore, a final dice roll on the captaincy is on the cards.
Cole Palmer
Gameweek 7 gave us a new FPL superstar. Since Cole Palmer‘s (£6.3m) first start for Chelsea, his total of 232 points is more than any other player. In that time, he has averaged 8.3 points per start.
These stats are even more impressive when we look at his matches at Stamford Bridge. Palmer has returned 135 points in 13 fixtures at home this season. In front of his own fans, he has averaged 10.38 points per game.
Chelsea face Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge on the final day of 2023/24. Bournemouth have lost three of their last four away fixtures, conceding eight goals and scoring just three.
The Blues have the added incentive of potentially securing European football for the 2024/25 season after what was panning out to be a disastrous campaign. With motivation, form, a good fixture and a home match, Palmer feels like a great differential captain for the weekend.
Bukayo Saka + Kai Havertz
If we think that Palmer and Chelsea will be spurred on by the potential of UEFA Europa/Conference League football, the motivation for Arsenal is greater still. The Gunners have come so close to lifting the Premier League trophy in the last few seasons and have fallen at the final hurdle.
This season they could finally be crowned champions in front of their home fans, although it now hinges on an improbable draw/defeat for Man City at home to West Ham United.
Bukayo Saka (£8.9m) collided with the advertising boards against Manchester United in Gameweek 36 and that saw him come off slightly early. The English midfielder is now flagged in FPL but we’ve been here so many times before and we’ll surely see the ‘Star Boy’ in the starting XI. Saka had returned back-to-back double-digit hauls ahead of the blank against Manchester United. He is a definite captaincy contender if fit.
However, if Saka doesn’t start for Arsenal at the weekend, then transferring him out for Kai Havertz (£7.5m) and handing him the armband could be interesting. Havertz has now returned in each of the last four matches. No one has more attacking returns since the German’s purple patch started in Gameweek 25. I won’t swap him for Saka unless Saka’s injury is worse than it seems but if you have Havertz, he is a definite captaincy option.
Jean-Philippe Mateta
OK, hear me out.
Yes, Crystal Palace don’t have anything to fight for in terms of European football. However, the Eagles are sitting in 12th place with the potential to finish 10th on the final day, if other results go their way. Since the arrival of Oliver Glasner, who took charge for the first time in Gameweek 26, Palace have picked up 21 points. The Eagles have also won five of their last six Premier League matches including games against Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle United.
Jean–Philippe Mateta (£5.0m) was at the centre of my biggest mistake this season. I moved the captain’s armband off him two minutes before the Gameweek 34 deadline… ouch. Blanking only once in his last five games, he has returned 46 points, six goals, one assist and nine bonus points.
Palace are a club who are rebuilding under the new manager. This is an opportunity for them to end the season at home on a high against an Aston Villa team who have been struggling with form and fatigue in recent weeks. UEFA Champions League football is now assured for next season, too: will there be a hangover from that or a loosening of the shackles?
Mateta, Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) and Michael Olise (£5.7m) all look like great picks for Gameweek 38 and, if you are brave enough, really attractive captaincy alternatives.
Final Thoughts
What happens in the Wednesday evening matches will be critical. If Palmer comes through his game unscathed, he might just be rewarded with my final armband of the season.
With transfers, I’m at a loss. I really like my team and I have big benching headaches already. However, if Saka is out, Havertz will replace him. If he is fit, then I will be waiting on team news before making a last-minute decision on a fun final pick to round off 2023/24 in style…hopefully!
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2 months, 12 days agoGordon will kindly put the bins out this week!